The midweek slate of games in the Premier League continues on Wednesday evening when three more matches take place with the majority of the attention coming in the form of what is now a very compelling title race.
The beauty of Wednesday night is that as well as the quality that is on show with three of the top four in the table in action, all three matches are live on the TV so if we have a bet we can follow it in full.
Arsenal vs Luton Town (19.30 – TNT Sports 2)
One of the first two matches to kick off on Wednesday evening does so at the Emirates Stadium where title chasing Arsenal play host to a Luton Town side who are doing everything they can to remain in the Premier League this term.
Arsenal now know that if they win out from here on in they need just one Liverpool slip up and they will be champions once again. That brings its own pressures but to be fair to the Gunners, in the main they have swatted aside the teams at the bottom this term. Sheffield United have lost 5-0 and 6-0 to Arsenal while Burnley lost 3-1 and 5-0. Luton were only edged out deep into injury time in the reverse meeting at Kenilworth Road though and that will give them some confidence but obviously this is a completely different kettle of fish on Arsenal territory. This was a tough ask for Luton with a full strength side but their injury list is absolutely crippling them so calculations for this match have to be done with a routine home win in mind but when they are 1/9 to win the match finding value isn’t easy, particularly with this their second game in three days and there is a trip to come to Brighton in another three days for Arsenal and then there is the Champions League next week so there is no guarantee they naturally run up the score even allowing for goal difference being a big thing.
Where I think the value lies is for the second half to have the most goals. Arsenal might ease up in terms of resting some key men in the second period if they are in position to but they brought the likes of Gabriel Martinelli and Leandro Trossard off the bench at the weekend and still had Eddie Nketiah and Emile Smith-Rowe on it so their depth is acceptable. The big problem with the Luton injury crisis is what it has done to what Rob Edwards has to call upon on the bench. He’ll be bringing players who were with the club in the lower leagues or academy products on and the difference is vast. We are seeing quite often that Luton are competitive in the first half at the minute but fall away in the second when the gulf in quality of the subs start to impact things. In the last six games, all four of Luton’s defeats have had more goals in the second period and the two draws saw a goal in each half. If we are assuming Luton lose here but put up a decent fight in the opening 45 minutes the floodgates could open in the second half. The second half won 4-3 in the reverse meeting and I expect more goals beyond the break in this one too.
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Brentford vs Brighton and Hove Albion (19.30 – TNT Sports 3)
The other match to kick off in the earlier set of games does so at the Gtech Community Stadium where struggling Brentford play host to Brighton and Hove Albion in what would look to be a tame match apart from the dislike the two owners have for each other.
Tony Bloom and Matthew Benham were once colleagues but are now bitter rivals and so this is one of the biggest games of the season for both. It might not necessarily have an impact on things on the pitch but it is something to bear in mind. The question when contemplating this one is who to trust. Brentford aren’t winning many games and even when they dominate like they did on Saturday night they don’t win while Brighton have never shown any consistency at all this season. I think the fact the owners don’t like each other will offer an incentive for both teams to give their all for the 90 minutes and look to beat the other though and that can offer up goal potential. Brighton have slowed up in the goal department in recent times but Brentford have little in the way of defenders. The Bees are getting all their forwards back though and when you consider that Lewis Dunk struggles badly with big physical strikers you could see Ivan Toney having his way here. We don’t get the chance to get involved in a Brighton game with a goal line of 3 very often these days so I’ll take advantage of the fact that we can here.
Man City vs Aston Villa (20.15 – TNT Sports 1)
The pick of the matches on Wednesday evening comes from the Etihad Stadium where third meets fourth as Manchester City look to stay in the hunt to defend their Premier League title when they host Aston Villa.
Villa head to Manchester knowing that they have already beaten City this season which will give them a boost but you would imagine that this time the home side will be bang on it and this could be a tough night at the office for the Villans. I don’t think City are firing on all cylinders but they will know they have run out of wiggle room in the title race and have to win this. At some point they might need to sort their goal difference out too so this just feels like a potential tough night at the office for Unai Emery’s charges. The one thing Villa have going for them is the bags of pace they have in attack but Ollie Watkins missing out is a concern. I expect City to win this but at 1/4 they can just win without my money on and there isn’t enough guarantees that they run up the score to be looking at handicaps. I’ll sit this one out.
Tips
Back Arsenal vs Luton – Highest scoring half to be second half for a 3/10 stake at 1.95 with William Hill
Back it here:
Back Brentford vs Brighton – Over 3 goals for a 3/10 stake at 1.90 with Bet365
