We have had a look at the outright market for the Premier League ahead of the new season getting underway on Friday night and the top scorer offering has been covered too and there are just a few more side markets of interest ahead of the big kick off.
As ever in any Premier League season, there are a number of markets priced up on a whole range of things from finishing positions to player markets and team scorers and much more besides. Here is where we see the value.
Relegation
One market which often gets plenty of attention is the relegation one. It has to be said that it is becoming more and more of a minefield and one to avoid in terms of point deductions starting to determine the league table more than footballing merit and that could be the case this season with Leicester City, Everton, Chelsea and Nottingham Forest all rumoured to be in PSR problems while the Manchester City case is expected to be resolved at some point too.
Despite all that, I can’t see past the 6/1 on the bottom three all to go for the second season in succession. Leicester City have lost their manager and their best player and don’t look to have enough of an edge to cope especially if they do get a deduction while Southampton look like the 2024/25 Burnley in that they play lovely football but nowhere near as well as the teams in this league do it so unless Russell Martin changes or he is changed I don’t see them staying up while Ipswich Town were in League One as recently as 15 months ago and that feels like a big jump in a short space of time. They are throwing cash at it but not on anyone we know is genuine Premier League quality. They conceded 57 goals in the Championship last term and they can’t stay up if that doesn’t improve massively. I think the 6/1 all three go back down is a fair price.
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Without Big 6
Another market which interests me is the without the top six one. In this situation the big six are Man City, Man Utd, Arsenal, Liverpool, Tottenham and Chelsea so we have the likes of Aston Villa, Newcastle United, West Ham United and others in this market so it is fairly competitive although the consensus is that Newcastle are the warm favourites, but I still believe that is as much on not having Europe as anything else and I’m not sure I can be on an odds on shot just for that reason.
In Newcastle and Aston Villa we have actually had surprise finishers in the top four for the past two seasons but while I don’t think we’ll get one this time around, I do expect Villa to struggle a touch with the Champions League juggling so it might be that a much stronger looking West Ham United could be the gate crashers at 14/1. Under a seemingly less progressive manager, the Hammers have finishes of 6-7-14-9 over the last four campaigns with the Europa Conference League success explaining a lot of the 14 two seasons ago. West Ham looked to have improved in depth and quality across the pitch and while I’m not cut up on the manager if he improves on David Moyes, West Ham shouldn’t be far away in this market.
Next Manager To Go
The other market where I think there might be a bit of value is the sack race one where Erik ten Hag and Eddie Howe are among the favourites to be the first to be booted out. I don’t really see a situation where United are going to put their backing in ten Hag and then dump him six weeks into the season while really you would be betting the prices on Howe leaving for England but that ship doesn’t appear to be leaving the marina anytime soon based on the noises so the value might well be elsewhere.
You can never look too far away from the promoted sides but surely even in this crazy world Russell Martin and Kieran McKenna have enough credit in the bank to get them towards Christmas at least. Given he managed rivals Notts Forest, Steve Cooper might need to hit the ground running to win over some Leicester fans but I think the 16/1 on Marco Silva is the play here. I don’t see Fulham as a side open to much improvement and this is a team who only won two of their last nine last season, one of which was on the final day of the campaign at Luton who had nothing left to give by then. Fulham have two of the promoted sides in the first three games but if they don’t go to plan they have Newcastle and Manchester City prior to that second international break when generally underachieving owners get edgy and having lost two parts of the spine of his team and not really replaced them, Fulham could be the first to panic while also at the same time a Saudi offer for Silva is still regularly being brought up.
Tips
Back Leicester/Ipswich & Southampton all to go down for a 2/10 stake at 7.00 with Bet365
Back West Ham to win Premier League (w/o big 6) for a 1/10 stake at 15.00 with Bet365
Back M.Silva Next Manager to Leave for a 1/10 stake at 17.00 with William Hill
Back him here:
