The 2015 Race to Dubai season may only have ended on Sunday but as with all sport these days the new season begins immediately. The 2016 European Tour season kicks off in South Africa on Thursday as a big year of golf gets underway.
Once again the Race to Dubai title has been priced up so now seems like a good time to get stuck in to the betting for the lucrative prize.
The first thing we should mention is a change to the requirements for the European Tour this season. In seasons gone by a player has been required to play in 13 events to be eligible for the prize but that has changed now and players only have to compete in 5 tournaments.
The other thing we need to point out before we get started is the change to the Final Series. Last year there were four tournaments that made up the Final Series but the two Chinese events have been canned and now just three events make up the season ending deciding slot. That means someone is unlikely to make a significant gain on the field at the end of the season.
That will be a significant change to both a golfer and his chances and also to us punters when betting on this market. In days gone by it would have been foolish to ignore the cream of the crop but with events such as the Olympics on the schedule this year and some big names no longer in the top fifty in the world which ensures automatic qualification for the majors we might see the big names less which gives the lesser names a chance.
Rory McIlroy is obviously the favourite to land the title again. On his day he is quite clearly the standout golfer in Europe right now. He will be in all of the major events so when he does play in tournaments that count towards the R2D he will pick up significant points. Given that he doesn’t have to play in as many events this year he could be worth taking on for once.
The question is who should we take him on with? Henrik Stenson and Justin Rose are the obvious two and that is reflected in the betting but as with McIlroy I would imagine these two will spend much of their time in the US which might ultimately count against them. With that in mind both are pretty short anyway.
I think this year of all years it could be worth taking a chance on someone who is based primarily in Europe. We shouldn’t forget this is a Ryder Cup year so everyone will be competing that little bit more for a place on the European side in 2016.
We saw last season the emergence of a number of promising European talents and if any of those show significant improvement they are entitled to be involved strongly come the end of the season.
One man who looked well at home on his debut season and who is open to plenty of improvement now he belongs at this level is Matthew Fitzpatrick. The Sheffield star has already won on the European Tour in his short career when he stormed to the British Masters title at Woburn in October.
That wasn’t the only eye catching week for the Englishman as he was in contention on plenty of other occasions. All of that put together saw him finish in the top ten of the Race to Dubai last season and now his progression has been so strong that he is now eligible for the really big events and it wouldn’t be beyond him to challenge in those too.
A good result in either the majors or the WGCs would see him steal a march on a number of players who don’t get into those tournaments. This guy is a real class act and I’m expecting a really big 2016 from him. At 33/1 he looks a great bet in this market.
With this being a year long market I will take a couple of others. I have to say I was extremely tempted by the 50/1 on Martin Kaymer. The German is no longer a member of the PGA Tour so he will base himself largely in Europe this season. If he comes back to his best form he should be a genuine contender. That said there’s enough doubts for me to look elsewhere.
Another man who really impressed me in 2015 was Andy Sullivan. Sullivan won three times last season and was only denied a big pay day in Dubai by some quality golf by Rory McIlroy on Sunday.
I love the fact Sullivan plays with a smile on his face at all times but we should not think for one minute that he is not very competitive on the golf course. He might not be the ultra long hitter that some are these days but he showed last season you don’t need to be.
Like Fitzpatrick, Sullivan gets into the bigger events this year which should in turn mean he wins more money and that can fire him to the top in Europe this year.
Graeme McDowell looks to have regained his focus after losing it due to family life earlier in 2015 and as we all know when Gmac is on his game he is still one of the best in the world. We also know he loves the Ryder Cup so he will be doing everything he can to make it on the team.
Another factor for Gmac is being involved in the Olympics and with the rise of Shane Lowry that isn’t guaranteed so he might add extra events to his schedule which will do his chances no harm.
I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a major or a really big event in Gmac this season and with that I’m prepared to chance him at the silly odds of 66/1 now that we know he has his game back.
Back M.Fitzpatrick to win Race to Dubai (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Ladbrokes (1/4 1-3)
Back A.Sullivan to win Race to Dubai (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Paddy Power (1/4 1-3)
Back G.McDowell to win Race to Dubai (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Paddy Power (1/4 1-3)
