After one of the best days of golf in living memory as Henrik Stenson beat Phil Mickelson to win The Open it is back down to earth a little this week as the PGA Tour stages the RBC Canadian Open.
It has to be said that this tournament has drawn the short straw given that it comes the week after The Open, which is actually traditional, but this year of course it comes before the final major of the year – the USPGA which takes place next week and that has had a significant effect on the quality of the field.
One man who does return despite all the big events going on at the minute is Jason Day. The defending champion will be looking to retain his title ahead of his USPGA title defence next week.
Recent Winners
2015 – Jason Day
2014 – Tim Clark
2013 – Brandt Snedeker
2012 – Scott Piercy
2011 – Sean O’Hair
2010 – Carl Pettersson
2009 – Nathan Green
2008 – Chez Reavie
2007 – Jim Furyk
2006 – Jim Furyk
The Course
We remain at the Glen Abbey Golf Club in Ontario this week which is the same course Jason Day won on last year. It was also used for the tournament in 2009 and 2013 so most players will be familiar with the Jack Nicklaus designed track.
The course is now a par 72 which measures just 7,253 yards and what I like about the track is that you can play it two ways. You can overpower it with length like Day and the runner up Bubba Watson did to good effect last year or you can plot your way around and still score nicely as Jim Furyk and David Hearn showed 12 months ago and Snedeker showed in 2013 when he won.
In 2013 the fairways were among the hardest to hit on the tour and with the greens all changed to bermuda grass and new sand put into the bunkers which protect the relatively small greens, the ability to keep the ball in play could be more important than length this week. Generally winners on Nicklaus layouts have good all-round games and putt well.
The Field
This isn’t the strongest field but sandwiched in between two majors and with the Olympics tournament only another three weeks away it was never going to be the strongest field.
That said it does contain the world numbers one and two as Jason Day and Dustin Johnson tee it up. Quite how much their focus will be on winning this week and potentially taking something out of themselves for next week remains to be seen.
Past champions Brandt Snedeker, Sean O’Hair, Jim Furyk, Chez Reavie and Vijay Singh are all in the field and will be looking for another title to head to the PGA with next week for those that are playing in that tournament.
Market Leaders
Defending champion Jason Day is the general favourite at 5/1 but some layers are offering him at a joint 11/2 price with Dustin Johnson. Both men probably played a little better than their finishing position suggested last week and they are certainly the form horses going into the week.
Matt Kuchar comes next at 16/1 but whether he is an attractive enough price for the lack of wins to times in contention ratio he has is another thing. I like Kuchar but even in a fairly weak field in terms of genuine star names his price is a little cramped to me.
Brandt Snedeker is next at 25/1. The 2013 winner here pulled out of the 2015 version with an injury so he will have good memories about this place and after a decent effort at Troon last week he is in decent enough form and shouldn’t be ruled out too quickly.
Jim Furyk comes next at 28/1 with Emiliano Grillo at 33/1 for those who are betting each way and then it is 40/1 bar those named which shows how open the tournament is if the big two get beat.
Main Bets
As this is the only tournament I’m betting in this week I’m going to allow myself a third main bet and add a bomber to my preferred accurate hitters. The first bet is a man I’ve been following closely recently in Emiliano Grillo.
I took Grillo at the WGC Bridgestone and he was right there but couldn’t live with the pace in a red hot field on a course which might have been a shade too long for him but this field isn’t as strong and the course certainly isn’t too long for him.
The Argentine is playing some good golf at the minute as he showed at Troon last week where he was one of few players to finish under par. 12 months ago he led the field after the first round but probably lacked the experience at PGA Tour level to win. He doesn’t lack that anymore having won once and contended a number of times.
Grillo has three top 15 finishes in his last four tournaments with us able to excuse the one he wasn’t there in which was the US Open. Grillo sits 13th in fairways hit on tour this year and second in total driving and he’s also in the top 30 for greens in regulation. That long game is the sort of quality needed to win here.
The bomber comes in the form of another man I’ve been keen to have on my side recently in Tony Finau. I was getting excited about a place at a monster price from Finau last week but sadly the final round caught him out but he enjoyed an excellent week at Troon which hopefully he can build on here.
We know Finau can take care of this course. He closed out the tournament with a fantastic 65 here last year and having won since and with the quality of his driver, which we saw in fantastic detail in Sky’s excellent Open Zone coverage last week, he should eat up the par 5s and give himself chances on the short par 4s. At 40/1 it is worth paying to see how well Finau can go this week.
My last main bet is a man who has already won on a Nicklaus course this season in William McGirt. He won The Memorial at Muirfield Village. Since then he has missed the cut in both majors although he was only one over the cut mark at Troon last week but in between he was tied for seventh in the WGC Bridgestone.
It might just be that McGirt’s game isn’t quite ready for the majors yet but there is no reason he can’t contend here. He was a runner up behind Snedeker on this course in 2013 which bodes well for him and he ticks all the correct boxes statistically. He has been solid from tee to green all season and if he can hole enough putts he’s entitled to be right there again this week.
Outsiders
I’m going to take two outsiders who both fit my tee to green criteria and those who follow me won’t be surprised to know that the first one is Colt Knost. I’ve been backing Knost on and off all year to medium effect but this looks like another good time to back him.
Knost missed the cut in Scotland last week but when it comes to PGA Tour events nobody hits more fairways than him and if his approach and short game can match the quality of his long game then he isn’t going to be too far away either. Having the weekend off last week isn’t necessarily a bad thing and a man looking for his first win on Tour still may have more motivation this week than others. He’s worth a go here.
I’m also going to take the former champion Chez Reavie. Reavie won this tournament on a different golf course to this one but he stats well enough to contend on this one too. He is inside the top 25 from tee to green for strokes gained which extends to 12th in fairways hit and he sits 10th in proximity to the pin.
His problem this year has been with the short stick but on these smaller greens there is enough to think if he is going to hole putts anywhere it could be here. He was seventh at Riviera this year and they are arguably the hardest greens to put on across the whole PGA Tour. A repeat of that has him right there in a country he has good memories in.
Tips
Back E.Grillo to win RBC Canadian Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back T.Finau to win RBC Canadian Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back W.McGirt to win RBC Canadian Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back C.Reavie to win RBC Canadian Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back C.Knost to win RBC Canadian Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Skybet (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
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