We have previewed the Group 1 races on the opening day of Royal Ascot elsewhere but there are three other extremely competitive offerings on the card and we are going with a bet in all of them. We are also having a go at the placepot to try and bank a few extra quid. Scroll to the bottom of the page for that.
3.05 Royal Ascot: Coventry Stakes
Preview
A Group 2 for 2 year olds over 6 furlongs sees many unexposed types in this 17 strong field. There are some pretty strong trends that shouldn’t be ignored here as 9 of the last 10 winners were priced at 11/1 or less whilst 9 of those 10 were unbeaten, 6 of those being once raced. Add to that the fact that the last 5 winners all recorded an RPR figure of at least 88 on their debut and we should be able to narrow the field significantly.
9 of this year’s field are priced under 25/1 with only 4 expected to start at less than 16/1. Of the 5 priced between 16/1 and 25/1, only 1 of those is unbeaten and that’s O’Brien’s 3rd string Royal Lytham but he only managed an RPR of 81. He could improve but will need to. The others all have a defeat to contend with and that’s not the ideal profile for this race.
Favourites
Concentrating on the front 4, Arizona is the favourite and is the mount of Ryan Moore for Aiden O’Brien. He was only 2nd on his debut but did win last time out coming home 8 lengths in front. That debut defeat is a negative and the same can be said for 10/1 shot Monoski from the Mark Johnston yard. He too followed up a debut 2nd with a facile win 2nd time out.
The 2 once raced unbeaten fancied horses are hard to split with the more fancied being Threat from the Richard Hannon yard. He recorded an RPR on 96 on debut and should go very close but he does have an extra furlong to contend with and his price of 11/4 is offputting.
Betting
That leads us to our selection in the shape of Archie Watson’s Guildsman. He’s more than twice the price of Threat and Arizona but comes here having won his only start, at Goodwood over this trip, when powering clear after being held up. He won by 6 lengths that day and the gap could have been much bigger. An RPR of 90 is another tick in the box as is his middle draw and hold up style of racing. His trainer goes well with 2 year olds having hit the frame with 47 of his 71 2 year old runners this term, 21 of those (30%) winning. He looks a very good each way bet.
Tips
PLACED – Back Guildsman (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 8.00 Betfair BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)
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5.00 Royal Ascot: Ascot Stakes Handicap
Preview
The only handicap of the opening day is the Class 2 Ascot Stakes with a maximum field of 20 running over the 2nd longest distance of the week, 2 miles 4 furlongs.
This is a race dominated by well fancied Irish trained runners with the last 10 winners all starting at 12/1 or less and 6 of the last 7 being trained in Ireland. Interestingly 3 of the last 7 have come from the head of the handicap.
Favourites
The current favourite is Willie Mullins trained Buildmeupbuttercup and is ridden by Ryan Moore. Aside from price and the Irish link, his chances don’t look obvious and he’s not a bet at just 5/1. Mengli Khan has more solid claims especially as he has solid jumps form having finished 3rd in the Supreme Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham. He last won a flat handicap off 90 and is now rated 96 but this is his first flat run for his current trainer, Gordon Elliott.
The leading English light is the Alan King trained Couer De Lion who won the Chester Cup consolation race off 5lb lower. He won well that day but whether quicker ground could prove his undoing is currently unknown.
Betting
The selection is the Noel Meade trained, Colin Keane ridden Snow Falcon. He’s the 2nd highest handicapped horse in the field off a mark of 99 and comes here with very decent form over fences. His stamina is guaranteed having won over more than 3 miles over jumps and the trainer has been aiming him at this race for quite some time, having cited his desire to have run him in this last year.
It’s 2 years since he ran on the flat but he did finish 2nd in the Irish Cesarewitch off a mark of 97, 2lb lower than he races off today. He also goes very well for this jockey having finished 2nd and 1st in just 2 rides and with form in big fields, he’s sure to be in the mix.
Tips
Back Snow Falcon (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 15.00 William Hill BOG (⅕ odds 1-5)
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5.35 Royal Ascot: Wolferton Stakes
Preview
The final race of the day is the mile and a quarter Listed Wolferton Stakes with 16 runners lining up. Despite the distance, you must not underestimate the effect of the draw here as there’s a bend just a furlong after the start. In the last 10 years, 8 winners have been drawn 8 or lower.
Age is important with 8 of those 10 being 4 year olds whilst all but one started at odds of 12/1 or less.
Favourites
4 of the well fancied runners have been handled difficult draws so Magic Wand (stall 14), Addeybb (12), Riven Light (11) and Star Of Bengal (15) are passed over. Only 3 runners priced less than 16/1 have been drawn low and it’s those 3 that we will concentrate on.
Betting
Latrobe is last year’s Irish Derby winner and a repeat of that would put him firmly in the mix but there’s a suspicion he might need an extra couple of furlongs and he’s been largely out of form since so has something to prove.
Elarqam, drawn in 3, looks to have a great chance judged on his win in a Listed race at Goodwood last time out but odds of 4/1 are offputting especially if he doesn’t get away to a good start from such a low draw.
The horse he beat that day was Willie John and Roger Varian’s charge is fancied to turn the tables today. Elarqam got first run that day but the selection stayed on really well, all the way to the line. Given a better ride today and in receipt of 3lbs, he should get a whole lot closer so at over double the price, he rates a good each way bet.
He comes with a lofty price tag after being bought for 1,900,000 Guineas after his impressive debut win. He hails from a good family and he looked like he might justify that price tag when winning his next start. However, he’s since had problems and had only seen the track 3 times until this year.
He opened up with a 4th when favourite but didn’t settle that day yet travelled into the race really well until failing to get home. However, he improved markedly with that Goodwood run last time out and, being lightly raced, looks like he could do even better this time. Andrea Atzeni takes the ride and it would be no surprise to see him finish the day with a winner.
Tips
Back Willie John (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 Coral BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)
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Day 1 Placepot
For a bit of fun, here’s the 64-line suggestion (2 selections per race) for those wanting a go at the placepot:
2.30: Laurens & Olmedo
3.05: Threat & Guildsman
3.40: Blue Point & Mabs Cross
4.20: Too Darn Hot & Skardu
5.00: Couer De Lion & Snow Falcon
5.35: Elarqam & Willie John
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