The second semi-final of the Royal London One Day Cup sees two of the bigger counties in the English game doing battle for a place at Lord’s when Surrey host Nottinghamshire at The Oval on Monday afternoon.
Surrey have already secured promotion back to the top flight in the County Championship last week so this is a good time for them and it means that they can fully focus their attention on this competition from here on in.
This tournament has been the sole point of Nottinghamshire’s attention for a while and after they strolled to top spot in their group they took care of the defending champions Durham in the previous round to set up this eagerly anticipated semi-final.
Surrey go into this match without their talismanic opening batsman Jason Roy as he is on England duty but having Kumar Sangakkara around lessens that blow somewhat. Surrey do at least have a full strength batting line up at their disposal which is a big help.
Nottinghamshire will be without their two best batsmen in this match as both Alex Hales and James Taylor are away with England. With that in mind it might be best that Imran Tahir isn’t available which means Dan Christian can bolster the batting. Michael Lumb is in the squad after a recent injury.
Surrey have a really good record at The Oval in this tournament and I fancy that to continue here. They have played four matches here and have won by 220 runs, six runs, 36 runs and 17 runs. They have put up good scores on each occasion and but for a brutal innings by Matt Coles when the game was up in the quarter final Surrey would have two 100+ run wins to their name here.
Nottinghamshire will arrive in London loaded with a batting line up which can take any side to the cleaners even without Alex Hales and Taylor but it is their bowling that could be an issue. We’ve already seen Kent chase down 330 against them this season and Sussex and Essex have put up over 260 against them too.
One of the reasons for Surrey’s dominance on this ground is their bowling attack which knows how to bowl on this wicket. There is a slight concern about their ability to chase if they are forced to bowl first but not enough to put me off. I’ll take Surrey here.
The bowlers that tend to go best on this wicket at this time of the season are spinners and Nottinghamshire have one in fine form in the shape of Samit Patel. Patel has taken 11 wickets in his last four bowling innings in this competition and on this track he should be capable of more here.
Given the fact he’s a top level batsman too I expect the all-rounder, who could yet have a role to play for England this winter if he catches the eye here, to have a massive impact on the match even if it isn’t a winning one. I think he’ll safely cover a 46pt performance target.
With Surrey missing Jason Roy they need to find an opening batsman. In the T20s Tom Curran was shoved up the order to take advantage of the fielding restrictions so he might be as good an option as any given that he’s done the job this season. With that in mind the 33/1 on him to top score for the home side looks a bit big.
We’re taking a chance that he does open the batting but if he does then that price immediately becomes value on a guy who has scored 44, 26* and 29 in this competition when batting down the order. Rory Burns is the standout man on form and I wouldn’t put anyone off taking him but Curran has a First-class best of 60 so he can bat and at 33/1 I’ll take the chance he opens the batting and goes well.
Back Surrey to beat Nottinghamshire for a 4/10 stake at 2.20 with Stan James
Back S.Patel’s Performance – 46 or more points for a 4/10 stake at 1.83 with Bet365
Back T.Curran Top Surrey Batsman for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Stan James
Blog cricket YTD: +15.45pts
