While all eyes are on China for the latest World Golf Championship tournament the lesser lights of the PGA Tour get the chance to shine in the Sanderson Farms Championship in Jacksonville.
132 players begin the week aiming to win the title and the many benefits that come with winning on the PGA Tour and as we saw last year when Peter Malnati won, the tournament can lead to a solid run of form for whoever comes through.
Recent Winners
2015 – Peter Malnati
2014 – Nick Taylor
2013 – Woody Austin
2012 – Scott Stallings
2011 – Chris Kirk
2010 – Bill Haas
2009 – No event
2008 – Will MacKenzie
2007 – Chad Campbell
2006 – D J Trahan
The Course
For the third successive year the tournament will be held at the Country Club of Jackson. This course is a par 72 which with a couple of new tees has a new yardage of 7,421 yards. Despite the relatively weak field this course played one of the easiest on the PGA Tour last year and nothing is expected to change this year.
There isn’t much rough on the course and statistically the greens are among the easiest to find that the PGA Tour uses which means that all things being equal this will revert into a putting contest so those who are comfortable with the short stick are the ones to focus on this week. Form horses might stand up here.
The Field
We’d be lying if we tried to big up this field as anything more than bang average but that may make the tournament even more competitive than normal with a number of those turning up fancying their chances.
In terms of the household names we have Chris Kirk and Ian Poulter on show this week while David Toms is a major champion back in the day. Lucas Glover is another who has had his hands on one of the biggest titles in the game and he tees it up here too. Retief Goosen and Angel Cabrera are also major champions in the field.
Market Leaders
Chris Kirk begins the week as the 14/1 favourite to win the title. That will be a position he isn’t accustomed to so how he deals with the pressure of it will be interesting. Few putt better than he so if he can handle the burden of expectation he could be the one to beat.
Patton Kizzire is another excellent putter as we saw in the Safeways a couple of weeks ago but we saw him wilt when in contention in that tournament and that has to be a negative for anyone considering taking him at 18/1 this week.
Russell Henley is another excellent putter although he had a pretty lame season last year and that could be a concern. At 28/1 if you are prepared to put faith in him to have recovered from last term you’re getting an acceptable price but he isn’t for me.
Ian Poulter went well in one of the lesser events in Puerto Rico last season and if he is back to full fitness then this is a course he should be able to handle but it has been ages since he won at any level so that is very much a negative even at 33/1.
Lucas Glover is also 33/1 but his problem for the last year or two has been his putter and that isn’t ideal in a tournament which is expected to become a putting contest so he is another one who is easy to ignore. It is 40/1 bar the five named men.
Main Bets
This is a really tricky puzzle to solve and as such I’m not going to go too mad on it but there are a couple of prices which stand out as good value and I’m going to have a go at those. The first is on David Toms.
Toms likes having the sun on his back when he plays golf and he’s going to get that this week. He has two top 10 finishes around this track so we know he enjoys himself here and he was third in strokes gained putting last year so the greens seem to suit him too. It has been a while since he has won but he looks to have a course advantage on some here and at 45/1 I’ll pay to see if he can go one better than last year.
One of the best putters on the PGA Tour in recent times has been Bryce Molder and he is my second main pick. Molder was only just outside the top 10 in strokes gained putting on the entire PGA Tour last season and that probably explains why he finished in the top five on debut here. Already he is fifth in that statistic this season and if the short stick stays hot he should go very close again.
Outsiders
I always think there is a chance for an outsider to do some damage in these fall series events and I’m going to take a couple who are new to the PGA Tour but who have talent and could outperform their prices.
The first one is no surprise given all the hype surrounding him. That is Robby Shelton. He is tipped to be a superstar and the stories of him doing Jordan Spieth as a 14 year old and things like that are well known. Shelton was tied for third in the Barbasol as an amateur and if the hype is justified then he could lead this field a merry dance on a course like this. I’ll pay to see how he goes.
The other one I’m going to take is the man who strolled through Monday qualifying. That is the German player Stephan Jaeger. He carded a round of eight under to secure his place in this tournament on Monday although he was only just over three grand from getting a Tour card for this season having won on the Web.com Tour last season. He’s clearly hitting it well though so at 275/1 I’ll pay to see if Jaeger can bomb through the field!
Tips
Back D.Toms to win Sanderson Farms Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
Back S.Jaeger to win Sanderson Farms Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 276.00 with Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
Back them here:
Back B.Molder to win Sanderson Farms Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back R.Shelton to win Sanderson Farms Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Winner Sports (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
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