As ever the week before The Open, the DP World Tour stages its latest Rolex Series event which is the Scottish Open as the stars of golf descend on the Celtic nation to fine-tune their preparations for the final major of the year.
Xander Schauffele headed to The Open in fine style last year having landed this title and he is back looking to land what is now a co-sanctioned event between the DP World Tour and the PGA Tour. That means a serious field will oppose him.
Recent Winners
2022 – Xander Schauffele
2021 – Min Woo Lee
2020 – Aaron Rai
2019 – Bernd Wiesberger
2018 – Brandon Stone
2017 – Rafa Cabrera Bello
2016 – Alex Noren
2015 – Rickie Fowler
2014 – Justin Rose
2013 – Phil Mickelson
The Course
We had gotten used to the Scottish Open moving around the country but with other events establishing themselves in Scotland it looks like the home for this one is very much becoming the Renaissance Club, a couple of miles away from Muirfield. This will be the fifth year in succession that the tournament has been staged here and as was the case last year, the track will play to a par of 70 measuring 7,237 yards as opposed to a par 71 previously. The change is on the seventh hole which is now a par four playing 505 yards rather than a 561 yard par five.
This isn’t strictly a links track although three of the holes do run along the coast. It is more a links course mixed in with a bit of a parkland feel. The rough is often kept quite thick and gnarly here in keeping with what the players are likely to encounter at Hoylake next week. Length is certainly no bad thing but you can run shots into these greens so it isn’t everything. A good short game is needed here though and as with any links like track you need to putt well. The conditions are expected to be rough this week which will be significant.
The Field
We have a real mix of PGA Tour and DP World Tour stars this week and the profile of this event is now high enough to attract the world number one Scottie Scheffler to the field. Any tournament is always boosted when the defending champion shows up and that is the case this week with Xander Schauffele is in the field. The man he won the title from, Min Woo Lee, is also teeing it up this week as are the last two US Open champions Matt Fitzpatrick and Wyndham Clark.
Rory McIlroy is one of the star names in the field this week while Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, Rickie Fowler, Jordan Spieth and Max Homa are some of the leading Americans teeing it up this week while the likes of Viktor Hovland, Tyrrell Hatton, Justin Rose and Shane Lowry will be playing for Ryder Cup and Race to Dubai points this week. Rasmus Hojgaard was a winner last week and he’ll be looking to back up here while Tommy Fleetwood and Adam Scott are others who will catch some attention.
Market Leaders
Scottie Scheffler is the world number one and while he hasn’t won for a while he hasn’t been out of the top five in any of his last six starts. Usually he is a decent player in the tougher conditions which will certainly bode well for him if that is the case this week. He was T12 on debut here but missed the cut last year, however the first effort included a second round of 63 so he can score here. He is 7/1 to win the tournament but given the conditions that feels a little short to me.
Rory McIlroy is the second favourite to win the tournament this week. The soft conditions will certainly be to his liking, in fact they might be similar to the conditions he won at Hoylake in when he won The Open. His two efforts around here have yielded T34 and a missed cut so he is going to need the conditions to help him. On the face of it this isn’t a track which suits his skills as there isn’t much room off the tee here and his putting is probably the weakest part of his game. The 10/1 doesn’t really interest me.
Patrick Cantlay is 14/1 to win the tournament this week. He would interest me in calmer conditions because he was in the top five at River Highlands last time out and was T4 here on debut last year. That came six or so weeks after he won the Zurich Classic with Xander Schauffele but he doesn’t feel quite in that form at the minute. The other obvious issue is the conditions which aren’t likely to suit. He feels a little short as a result.
The defending champion Xander Schauffele is 16/1 on the best prices to retain the title this week. Regular readers will know that I am not a fan of backing defending champions but it is hard to ignore his record in this part of the world whether it is in this tournament or The Open. That said, defending champions have plenty of scrutiny on their time and that always puts me off. Conditions might be an issue at what is largely only a tight price anyway really.
Main Bets
I’m going after a couple of links specialists who have shown ability to thrive in tough conditions as my main bets this week. The first of those is Rickie Fowler, who I always like in this part of the world anyway but who I especially like when he has won within the last month. Fowler took down the Rocket Mortgage Classic a couple of weeks ago and that put the confirmation stamp on a good run of form for a player who at his best was taking down tournaments like this regularly. He is a former winner of this tournament, albeit on a different course, and has stacks of form in tough conditions so with the confidence of his win recently he looks an obvious bet this week.
The other go to stop when conditions are tough is Shane Lowry. This course should really suit him anyway and he will be a leading contender at The Open next week so his preparations will be taken seriously. The negative for Lowry is that crazily this is his first tournament on this course even though he was a regular at this event back in the day. That is the only negative though because the tougher the conditions the more he thrives and with good driving and an excellent short game a must around here I see no reason why Lowry won’t be fully in the mix on debut.
Outsiders
Robert MacIntyre has shown signs of coming into form in recent weeks and now that he is back on home soil I think he’ll be extremely motivated to convert that into something special. MacIntyre was T18 at the BMW International Open and then T39 at the British Masters, where he sat inside the top 10 at halfway but a poor final round saw him fade away. He comes here off the back of a T4 in Denmark last week and returns to a course where he has finished in the top 20 twice. If the conditions get tough like they are expected to then he is likely to have his chances enhanced and at the prices he can’t be left out of the staking plan.
Much further down the betting I like Romain Langasque. Generally it is accepted that you have to drive the ball well around here and you need a decent short game so a man who sits at 29 on the DP World Tour for strokes gained off the tee, 25 for strokes gained around the green and 16 for scrambling certainly ticks all of those boxes. That should mean it is no surprise that the Frenchman finished third here in 2019 when he carded -20. He shot four under par rounds the last time he played this tournament two years ago as well so he has plenty of previous around here and with the tougher conditions keeping the score down he could well do in at a monster price.
Tips
Back R.Fowler to win Scottish Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 19.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back R.MacIntyre to win Scottish Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back S.Lowry to win Scottish Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 31.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back R.Langasque to win Scottish Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 251.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
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