The traditional tournament on the European Tour the week before The Open is the Scottish Open and this year is no different despite all the changes to the schedule. Of all the major championships this is the one players play the weekend before the most to familiarise themselves with links golf and what will be needed next week.
With that in mind a pretty decent field has once again been assembled for this prestigious tournament including stars from across the pond as well so we are in for a decent tournament this week.
Recent Winners
2015 – Rickie Fowler
2014 – Justin Rose
2013 – Phil Mickelson
2012 – Jeev Milkha Singh
2011 – Luke Donald
2010 – Edoardo Molinari
2009 – Martin Kaymer
2008 – Graeme McDowell
2007 – Gregory Havret
2006 – Johan Edfors
The Course
This tournament has been on a bit of a rotation in recent years and this year it is back at the Castle Stuart Golf Links in Inverness, the venue for the tournament between 2011 and 2013. It is an exposed layout with some wonderful views which makes for a good golf course.
The course is a par 72 but it only measures 7,193 yards so it isn’t the longest and it isn’t the toughest either especially if the wind doesn’t blow. Scoring here is often quite low and with the strength of the field this week I’m expecting this to be a pretty low scoring tournament once again.
There is plenty of room off the tees around here and the longer you are the more chance you have of missing the trouble notably the bunkers which as with most links courses are pretty deep. The greens are massive so distance control is key this week as is putting and scrambling so I think we’re looking for the longer hitters who have a decent enough short game.
The Field
The last two winners of the tournament don’t appear this year but there are a number of former winners teeing it up such as Phil Mickelson, Luke Donald, Jeev Milkha Singh, Martin Kaymer and Graeme McDowell to name just a few.
Star players like Henrik Stenson, Branden Grace, Shane Lowry, Patrick Reed and Andy Sullivan are also in the field while PGA Tour stars Russell Knox, David Lingmerth, Jamie Lovemark and Steve Stricker are also teeing it up this week, some looking for the last entries into next week’s Open.
Market Leaders
Henrik Stenson is the 9/1 favourite this week which is probably fair enough on the world rankings but he looks a little short to me. I’ve never really ever thought that this form of golf suits him like some of the other Scandinavians but he won in Germany two weeks ago and so he’s in good nick and shouldn’t be taken lightly.
Branden Grace is a former winner of the Dunhill Links which has shown he can navigate his way around a links track and at 11/1 I’m sure he’ll be popular this week especially with his length off the tee. He’s just a little short in what is a competitive field this week.
Phil Mickelson is 18/1 and as a former winner around this golf course he’ll be delighted to be back and if this comes down to a putting contest or a short game exhibition then he isn’t going to be far away and the same can be said of Shane Lowry at 20/1.
Martin Kaymer is also a 20/1 shot with Patrick Reed 28/1 and Rafael Cabrera-Bello a top price of 30/1. It is 35/1 bar those named in this section.
Main Bets
I’m going to allow myself an extra couple of main bets this week as this is a strong field and the only tournament going and for some reason there are a number of big prices that appeal here. I’m after good drivers of the ball and players who can get it up and down from around the greens and all four picks hit that criteria.
Chris Wood seems an obvious first pick. He showed all his quality at Wentworth when he powered away from the field and with a decent links pedigree behind him he is well set to go well this week. Wood has links form in The Open and the Dunhill Links and with his length off the tee he should fit this course nicely.
He couldn’t be in better form coming in and even on tough courses like in Paris last week he has gone well so if conditions get tough this week he won’t be one to struggle. At 30/1 he looks a really good starting point.
Russell Knox doesn’t come over from America too often but when he does it often counts. He had the lead in the Irish Open earlier in the year with just three holes to play before Rory McIlroy came through and gubbed him but that was just one week of many that he has shown good form this year.
Knox grew up not far from this course so he will know how it plays and how to play the conditions and with it being a second home game for him he will be able to sample the smaller delights like home cooked food and a good bed and that can never be taken for granted on the golf tour. He is a straight hitter, finds the greens but scrambles brilliantly when he misses and he should be right in there this week.
At slightly bigger prices I’ve a feeling this course is perfectly suited to Kiradech Aphibarnrat and Thorbjorn Olesen. We know Olesen can handle the tougher links tracks from his record in the Dunhill Links where he will defend the title last in the year and we only have to look back to Germany a couple of weeks ago to see he is in good form.
Aphibarnrat also landed a title on the links last year when he hosed up in the Paul Lawrie Matchplay and the freedom off the tee should help him this week just as it did in Germany a fortnight ago. We know both Olesen and Aphibarnrat are excellent putters especially on big greens and they both have decent enough short games and good distance controls. I’d be very surprised if they’re not right in the mix come Sunday.
Outsiders
Even though I’ve taken four main bets there are still a couple of outsiders I’ll chance at huge prices. It should be said both are huge prices because their form is non-existent but I’m hoping a return to links golf which is different to the norm inspires them to get their best stuff out.
Tommy Fleetwood has an excellent record in Scotland. In the Dunhill Links he has four top 13 finishes in five starts and he has two top 20 finishes in this tournament in the past including one around here. If that isn’t enough he won the Johnnie Walker Classic at Gleneagles in Scotland so the Scottish air brings out the best in him.
Fleetwood is long off the tee and when he is in form he can get hot with the putter. If that club can heat up this week he can outrun his odds.
Finally I like Eddie Pepperell this week. Again his form is poor but 12 months ago he was a runner up after losing in a playoff in the Irish Open in the most extreme conditions I’ve seen golf played in for a while and he was more than competitive for long periods in The Open at St Andrews until he belted one into the hotel in the third round.
Although his form is patchy at best he does have a couple of top 10 finishes on Tour this year including in Ireland and I’m hoping being back on UK soil sees him deliver his best. If it does he can have a late tee time on Sunday too.
Tips
VOID – Back C.Wood to win Scottish Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 31.00 with Betfred (1/4 1-6)
Back him here:
Back R.Knox to win Scottish Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 31.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back K.Aphibarnrat to win Scottish Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 67.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back T.Olesen to win Scottish Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 67.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back T.Fleetwood to win Scottish Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Winner Sports (1/4 1-6)
Back him here:
Back E.Pepperell to win Scottish Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 176.00 with Coral (1/4 1-6)
Back him here:
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