After rescuing the second Test after initially being pummelled, South Africa head to their capital city looking to get back on level terms with England when the two meet in the third game of four in the series on Thursday.
Much has changed for the Proteas since the draw in the second Test. Hashim Amla quit the captaincy immediately after that match and AB de Villiers has taken over. How much he wants it remains to be seen given that he refused to commit himself to the role beyond the last two matches of this series.
Usually it is South African captains seeing off English ones when these two sides meet so all of England will be pleased to see that Alastair Cook is still leading their side into battle here. He does so knowing that if he and his team can mastermind another win they will secure the series with a match to spare.
The eve of the match was also telling in terms of team selection for South Africa. Dane Piedt was released to play for his franchise so he isn’t going to feature in this match which suggests South Africa will go in with an all pace attack with Hardus Viljoen coming in for his Test debut.
Dale Steyn and Vernon Philander have been ruled out of this match and if England win here it would be a surprise if we see either at all in the remainder of the series. Morne Morkel, Chris Morris and Kagiso Rabada will make up the attack. Quinton de Kock is being touted to go up to open with JP Duminy coming into the middle order.
England are waiting on the fitness of Alex Hales before confirming their side. He had a throat infection on the eve of the game but he still trained so he is likely to play unless his condition worsens. Nick Compton or Adam Lyth could open with Gary Ballance an option in the middle order should the former move up.
The Wanderers Stadium in Johannesburg is the venue for this 3rd Test. There have been 35 previous matches on this ground with South Africa winning 14 and losing 10 with 11 draws. England have only won two of their eight matches here but did secure a famous draw when Michael Atherton produced one of the innings of all time.
The wicket here usually does a little bit especially for the seamers. The altitude can often create some swing but we have to remember that there has been a drought in South Africa so this one could be up and down from the off. Evening thunderstorms could negate any spin offerings.
I’ve a feeling this wicket could be livelier than many previous ones on this ground purely because of the state of the series. South Africa have to win to have a chance of winning the series so they need to attack now.
I don’t think that necessarily goes against England. They will back their own seamers and the batting depth they have should give them an advantage so I’m firmly in the England camp as I have been throughout the series but given that I backed them to win the series from the start I’ve no need to get involved again.
There are a few bets I like in this match though. The first of them is on England to lead after the first innings. England have comfortably led at halfway in the first match and although they were lucky to take a lead in the last one they would have had a huge one if they had taken their chances. With the batting depth they have I’m taking England to lead after the first innings again.
Six of the last eight first innings here have been less than 90 overs in duration which leads me to believe that the 6/4 on both teams batting on the first day is good value. Neither top order has flourished throughout this series and I expect the seamers to get something out of this track on the opening day. With all that in mind I’ll have a small punt on both sides batting on Thursday.
I took Kagiso Rabada to be the leading South Africa bowler in the last match and he duly obliged and I’m going to take his performance line in this match. It is at 80.5 which looks too low to me given the movement both through the air and off the pitch that the seamers are likely to get.
We just need four wickets and a run for that to be covered but it might be that he gets a few away with the bat over the course of the match in which case three wickets might well be enough. Whether three or four are needed he’s good enough to cover that line.
Finally given that I fancy the new ball to do a bit in this match it makes sense target someone down the order and given how well Jonny Bairstow has batted in this series the 9/1 on him top scoring in England’s first innings looks a touch big.
He made an unbeaten 150 in the first innings in Cape Town which would have top scored more often than not and he did top score with 30 in the second dig. He also top scored in the second innings in Durban too so I’ll take the keeper to land the odds first time around here.
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Back Both teams to bat on Day 1 for a 3/10 stake at 2.50 with Sportingbet
Back K.Rabada’s Performance – Over 80.5pts for a 4/10 stake at 1.83 with Paddy Power
Back J.Bairstow Top England 1st Inns Batsman for a 1/10 stake at 10.00 with Stan James
