South Africa and England reconvene for the fourth time in what is fast becoming a fascinating ODI series on Friday and with the Proteas winning the third match in Centurion on Tuesday there is all to play for in Johannesburg.
South Africa now trail 2-1 in the series with two matches to play so they know Friday’s game is must win for them. England have already won one series in Johannesburg on this tour and with a win here they can make it two series wins on this famous ground.
The win for AB de Villiers’ men in Centurion was based around a bit of local knowledge and the tremendous form of Quinton de Kock and everyone linked with the South Africans will hope he has something left up his sleeve for this game.
David Wiese’s selection in the previous match added to the balance of the South African side even if it did weaken their batting but on this batsman friendly track the extra bowler is likely to be the better option. Chris Morris is fighting for a recall on his home ground and could replace Morne Morkel.
England were caught out a little bit by a lack of knowledge of the conditions and just a brilliant innings from de Kock. If anything they might be a little disappointed with how they bowled but in truth they never put up enough runs so that gives them something to build on.
As has been the case all series so far the form of Chris Jordan is a concern and he could be replaced but the fact that neither Stuart Broad nor Chris Woakes were included in England’s World T20 side could give Jordan a lifeline as dropping him could be counterproductive.
The fourth match comes from The Wanderers Stadium in Johannesburg where it is the ‘Pink ODI’ as the South Africans pledge their support to the fight against Breast Cancer. This will be the 43rd ODI on this iconic ground.
South Africa have a daunting record on this ground. They have played in 29 of those matches and have a 21-8 winning record including that historic match against Australia where they chased down 434 some 10 years ago. England have two wins from five matches here.
We know what we’re going to get from this ground. The wicket will be good for batting and high up in the Highveld the air is thin which means the ball is going to fly further so this is not a day to be a bowler. I’m expecting another very high scoring game where 400 might only be par especially as the wicket being used is one away from the middle of the square offering a short boundary to one side.
I can’t be getting involved in the match odds here for a couple of reasons. The obvious reason is that the ground is so hard to defend so batting first is a significant disadvantage. Given South Africa’s record here I think I’d be looking to have them onside but until we know the result of the toss there is little value on them at odds on.
One bet where there is plenty of value is in the sixes which come as sure as night follows day on this ground. The boundaries here are pretty small even by modern standards at the best of times let alone when there is a short boundary due to the pitch position.
Amazingly the sixes line is at 15.5 which just looks way too low before we even see that AB de Villiers covered that line on his own in the last ODI here. Sixes totals way up in the 20s are pretty regular here so immediately that line looks low.
There were 17 sixes in Centurion on bigger boundaries than the ones here and on a trickier pitch and there were also 22 in three quarters of a game in Bloemfontein. I’d be very surprised if we don’t see at least 16 sixes here.
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