After a successful day in pink on Friday, South Africa will hope to embrace the love on another day associated with pink on Sunday when they and England meet in an ODI series decider on Valentine’s Day.
Back to back wins have got South Africa right back into this series and now they will aim to nail this finale and complete a remarkable turnaround. If the events of the last few days haven’t given South Africa enough confidence and belief then this match is being played at Cape Town – a South African hotbed.
South Africa’s resurgence in this series has largely been down to their bowlers being able to keep control of England’s middle order and Imran Tahir’s improvement as the series has gone along has gone a long way to helping with that.
Given the supposed momentum they are carrying into this match it is hard to see South Africa changing a winning combination but David Miller is banging the door down for a go in the middle order. He might have to wait until the T20s to get it though.
England will know they blew some key chances in Johannesburg even though they did so well to get so close after posting a really light looking total. They need their middle order, specifically Jos Buttler and Eoin Morgan to come to the party again and if they do they have enough in their side to get over the line here.
England made two changes last time out but it is hard to argue that the Stuart Broad move worked so they could go back to David Willey. James Taylor and Jonny Bairstow are on the sidelines if they want to make a change to the middle order but that seems unlikely at this stage.
The picturesque Newlands in Cape Town is the venue for this decider and what a fitting stage it is for it too. South Africa love it here. They’ve played here 30 times and have won 25 and lost just five. England will take comfort from the fact the Proteas have lost their last two here but Eoin Morgan’s men won’t want to know they’ve won just one of six matches on this ground – a win against Pakistan in the 2003 World Cup.
I’m not sure how I expect this match to go if I am honest. South Africa’s record here suggests they are excellent value even at 4/5 but they tried their hardest to lose things in Johannesburg and they don’t have the best record under pressure in the key matches so that puts me off.
I’d have liked to have seen a little more from England and their middle order in order to back them so I’m going to leave the match betting alone and focus on the sixes again.
The sixes line here is 11.5 which looks a little high at the best of times. You have to go back quite a few ODIs for the last one that had 12 sixes and although the game has changed now I’m still not sure we’re going to see an avalanche of them here. In Morgan, Buttler, Stokes and de Villiers all of a sudden there are four power hitters out of form and that could be crucial.
The wicket could also be crucial. It isn’t the batsman’s paradise of Centurion or Johannesburg and even though the Bullring was good for batting and had altitude assistance we only got six sixes there and four of them came in the last few overs.
With this being a day game there could be something in it for the bowlers early on and with the sun beating down on the deck it could slow up. The only other day game in this series yielded few sixes and I’ve a feeling this one might go the same way especially in a deciding game where it is all about winning rather than entertaining.
Chris Morris top scored for South Africa in the last match and with this ground not being a complete batsman’s paradise there is the chance for someone to go in down the order again especially a clean and powerful hitter like he is.
You can see the confidence that making a million dollars in the IPL auction has given him and to justify such a price tag he has to be performing in the big matches. England tried a few tactics to get him out in Johannesburg and failed and if they fail again the South African could land tasty odds.
WON – Back Under 12 sixes for a 4/10 stake at 1.91 with Bet365
Back C.Morris Top South Africa Batsman for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Coral
