Knockout football begins in the Super League on Thursday night when the Warrington Wolves and the Castleford Tigers battle it out for the right to move onto the second week of the newly structured play-off competition.
Warrington were hoping to avoid this match but their defeat at the Leeds Rhinos has left them playing for their lives right from the beginning. Castleford Tigers got lucky when Hull FC lost last week to allow them into the postseason and they’ll be all out to extend their campaign.
Warrington Wolves
The Challenge Cup winners will know they have the credentials to come through knockout matches but this is a little different to that in that their next loss will be the end of their season and that brings a little added pressure. Nevertheless, you’d rather have the amount of wins in knockout football that they have had this season than not. They need to take that confidence and ensure that they deliver a solid performance.
It has to be said that Warrington have not finished the season well. Either side of their Wembley win they have only won one match in their last six in the Super League and that against a Wakefield side who plummeted in the second half of the campaign. In all five of those defeats they have failed to score more than a dozen points so they need their attack to come to the party here to ease the pressure on their defence.
Castleford Tigers
The form of the Castleford Tigers has been much more secure in recent times. They have won three of their last five matches but the concerning thing is the two they lost. While you can easily cut them some slack and say they lost to the top two teams in the competition, their record against the other five in the top six has been poor for some time. If that doesn’t change here then their season will come to an end and they won’t want that.
One of the reasons why Castleford have struggled against the top six is that their defence seems unable to repel waves of pressure and inevitably the better sides in the competition are able to put that together so that is something they are going to have to improve upon not just over what they hope will be the next three weeks but also going forward into next season if they are to achieve their main aims.
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Team News
Warrington Wolves will be without half-back Matty Smith who is suspended for the game. Man of Steel challenger Blake Austin could be a crucial player if the Wolves are going to make it into next week of the competition.
Castleford Tigers will be without their forward Jesse Sene-Lafao after he was sent off for his shocking piece of play in the loss to Wigan last week. They need Jake Trueman to come to the party and control this game.
Betting
You would have to say that neither of these sides particularly appeal in terms of betting potential given the question marks over them. Warrington Wolves have only won two in 10 in the Super League so backing them at odds on is hard while Castleford Tigers’ poor record against the better sides makes backing them tough as well so I’ll go with under in the points tally.
Both teams are going to play this tough and I don’t expect anything to be given to either of them so I’m expecting a very tight contest and one which will be low scoring. Even if a side gets away and wraps up the win early they will need to think of next week so could save something in reserve. I don’t see that happening though. I think we’ll get a cup final sort of encounter where 41.5pts is not threatened. Given the huge nature of every point in the match it might also be worth a tiny play on either side to open the scoring with a penalty. We may not see a try for a while so a convertible penalty could be taken to edge in front in a tight game.
Tips
WON – Back Under 41.5pts for a 4/10 stake at 1.88 with 888sport
Back Warrington Penalty – First Scoring Play for a 1/10 stake at 6.50 with 888sport
Back Castleford Penalty – First Scoring Play for a 1/10 stake at 7.00 with 888sport
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