It is the penultimate day of Super 12 action in the T20 World Cup 2021 on Sunday and the first match of the double header sees Afghanistan taking on New Zealand in what might just be the most significant match of Group 2 so far.
This match isn’t just big for these two sides. It is big for India as well as a win for New Zealand would eliminate both India and Afghanistan in one foul swoop. An Afghanistan win would most likely set up a three way tie for the final semi-final spot where net run rate would be decisive.
Afghanistan
It looked like Afghanistan were making a major play on a semi-final spot but things came unravelled in their last match when they were torn apart by India. Afghanistan could have afforded a narrow loss to India and kept things relatively in their own hands but they lost by far too big a margin, which means they now not only need to win this match to have any chance of making the semi-final but they are going to have to win it pretty big in order to boost their net run rate.
Afghanistan have been a little unlucky with the injury to Mujeeb which has thrown them off of some of their plans. Afghanistan will clearly be hoping he is back so they can get to strangle sides from the start of the innings through to the end of it. Afghanistan are going to have to win this big so you would think their batsmen are going to have to go for it right from the off although that has been their way anyway so that is no bad thing.
New Zealand
While Afghanistan can get things in their favour with a big win here New Zealand can actually secure their semi-final spot. The best thing about it from a Kiwi point of view is that they don’t need to win by a certain margin to go through either. Any win will do them but defeat is most likely going to see them knocked out of the competition. This isn’t officially a quarter final for New Zealand but it is as good as one so it will be interesting to see how they handle that pressure.
New Zealand have been excellent with the ball in this tournament. If they can continue that trend here then they are going to be very hard to beat, especially when you consider Afghanistan are going to be coming after them. The big issue in this match is whether the New Zealand batters can handle the Afghanistan spin barrage. If they can they would have every chance of winning but there is no guarantee of that happening.
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Key Men
Someone in this Afghanistan team is going to have to go big in this match if they want to qualify for the next round. Hazratullah Zazai is going to face a battery of the new ball so it might be that it is the time for Najibullah Zadran to shine.
New Zealand need someone to counter the spin that is going to be sent their way. Their best hope of doing that is if Kane Williamson gets in and knocks the ball around and allows the others to do the big hitting. He is crucial here.
Betting
This match is similar in a way to the England vs South Africa match on Saturday in that one team doesn’t just need to win but in the case of Afghanistan they need to win pretty big. Where it differs is that New Zealand only have to win but you would imagine that if they bat first they will want to put as big a total on the board as possible to give themselves the best chance of winning and if they are batting second they could be chasing something extreme.
That makes me think that over 33.5 boundaries are the way to play this one. Afghanistan go after the bowling and look to hit a lot of boundaries at the best of times let alone when they have to do it here and although New Zealand might find getting the likes of Rashid Khan away, the other bowlers can all go round the park. Even with Khan, the Kiwis have the advantage of Kane Williamson captaining him at the Sunrisers Hyderabad in the IPL so he’ll know all about him. I like the over in boundaries here.
Tips
Back Over 33.5 boundaries for a 3/10 stake at 2.00 with William Hill
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