The PGA Tour heads from Hawaii to mainland America for the beginning of the West Coast Swing this week with The American Express taking place across the traditional three courses usually used for the California event.
Hudson Swafford won this tournament a year ago but he doesn’t return to attempt to make a defence of the title so we are guaranteed a different winner of this pro-am tournament which gets a good few weeks of golf underway.
Recent Winners
2022 – Hudson Swafford
2021 – Si Woo Kim
2020 – Andrew Landry
2019 – Adam Long
2018 – Jon Rahm
2017 – Hudson Swafford
2016 – Jason Dufner
2015 – Bill Haas
2014 – Patrick Reed
2013 – Brian Gay
The Courses
We have three courses in action once again this week – Stadium Course, Tournament Course at PGA West and La Quinta. Each professional and their amateur partner plays the rotation of the courses once over the first three days and then those who make the cut will fight it out for the title on the Stadium Course to crown our champion across the course of Sunday.
All three courses are par 72s and none of them are especially long. They are all set up a little easier than we would expect courses to be in big tournaments to allow the amateurs to get round them relatively successfully. The standard diet for this tournament is pretty simple – hit lots of greens and make a lot of birdies. We’re looking for a winning score in the 20s under par so it is imperative we back players who make a stack of birdies.
The Field
There has been a clear intent to make the fields stronger on the PGA Tour in 2023 and this week is further evidence of that as some top names who wouldn’t usually appear here are doing so. The field is headlined by the former champion Jon Rahm who is looking for a second title of 2023 already having landed the Tournament of Champions a fortnight ago. Other leading lights here include Scottie Scheffler, who could return to the summit of the world game this week and Patrick Cantlay.
Those three set a decent standard but the likes of Tony Finau, Xander Schauffele and Will Zalatoris are contenders in any tournament they tee it up in these days. Cameron Young is heading towards that status too and they all have tee times this week. Last week’s winner and former champion Si Woo Kim is in the field while Sungjae Im, Tom Kim, Tom Hoge, and Sahith Theegala are others who will attract decent followings.
Market Leaders
It is probably no surprise that Jon Rahm is a 13/2 favourite to win the tournament this week. He might be playing the best golf of anyone at the minute and on courses which are set up easy he has all the tools needed to gobble them up and take advantage of them. The only sort of stumbling block is the amateur element to things and sometimes you can get the wrong course on the wrong day but it would be a surprise if he isn’t in the mix when we head back to the Stadium Course on Sunday.
Scottie Scheffler is a 10/1 second favourite to land this tournament for the first time this week. I mentioned at the Tournament of Champions that his form towards the end of 2022 collapsed but he put up a creditable effort in Hawaii and is another who has all the tools to jump all over these courses in the way they are set up. He was third here three years ago and it wouldn’t surprise anyone if he goes better this week but he only needs a top eight finish to be the world number one again and that might become a thing as the week goes on.
Patrick Cantlay has a wonderful record in this part of the world but he is yet to get his hands on this title so the 12/1 on him may not appeal as much as it might otherwise have done. He has three top 10s here in his last three outings around these courses but two of those wouldn’t have cashed. I always think he is better in the bigger events where there is a bit more skill required and the tracks play a little tougher so he isn’t for me.
Tony Finau has to be considered whenever he tees it up and the length he can get after these holds off the tee with has to have him as a leading contender. The days where we worry about Finau converting are long gone. He was fourth here in 2021 and although he looked rusty in Hawaii at the beginning of the year he should be tuned in now. I don’t like backing short priced runners at the outset of this though so I’ll let the 14/1 pass me by.
Main Bets
I’ll go with a couple of main bets this week with the first of them coming in the form of Taylor Montgomery who is having a decent season. He has seven top 15 finishes in eight events this season and has the combination that I like here in that he is long enough off the tee and he is an excellent putter. Already in this wraparound season he has shot a 62, two 64s including one in Hawaii last week and a pair of 65s so when he clicks he can go very low. The obvious negative is that he plays this tournament for the first time but he isn’t going to find any difficulty on the courses on show so I’m not sure that is that much of a negative, especially as he is playing most events for the first time and it doesn’t seem to be hindering him. I think he’s a more than fair price here.
Andrew Putnam is never far from my sights when this tournament comes around because he has a good record here and is one of the best putters on the PGA Tour as he showed last week when he led the field for strokes gained putting at the Sony Open. These easy setups are good for him because he doesn’t have to smack the small beyond trace to keep up with everyone to score and the pro-am element of it is clearly to his liking too. Last week was his second top five finish of the season after another fairly short course where putting was a requisite at the Zozo Championship. Putnam finished 62-68 last week and looks primed for a big run this week.
Outsiders
I’ll go with three outsiders this week with the first of them being Dean Burmester which is a bit of a punt but he’ll be smacking the ball into positions where he only has short irons into the greens. He is a bit of a streaky putter but when that short stick is on he can go very low and given that he should be giving himself plenty of looks at birdie I’ll pay to see if the South African can roll his rock to a good level. If he can then these courses should offer no demons to him.
The final two bets I’ll place are on renowned good putters in Aaron Baddeley and Michael Thompson. Admittedly consistency is not the strong point of either of these two men but Baddeley comes here after a decent effort last week and he is third on the PGA Tour in total putting and in the top 25 in strokes gained putting. He closed out last week with a pair of 65s so he should be feeling good about himself and at a three figure price I’ll pay to see how he goes too.
Thompson is another who is a good putter when it comes together. He has a couple of top 10 finished here and showed he can go low when he won the 3M Open a couple of years ago. He is another who probably doesn’t have the length to compete on some of the PGA courses these days but on these three he certainly can and if he can dial in a few irons to set up some chances here then he might well convert enough to deliver something at a major price.
Tips
Back A.Putnam to win The American Express (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 61.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back M.Thompson to win The American Express (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 201.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back T.Montgomery to win The American Express (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back D.Burmester to win The American Express (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back A.Baddeley to win The American Express (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 251.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
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