The bottom two meet in The Hundred on Friday night when the Welsh Fire welcome the Northern Superchargers to Sophia Gardens for the latest offering in the relatively new franchise competition.
The Welsh Fire have been out of qualifying contention for a while now but there is still a mathematical equation which sees the Superchargers through to the finals. You need to be Carol Vorderman to work it out though.
Welsh Fire
The season goes from terrible to even worse for the Welsh Fire who are now six matches without a win. Usually by this stage of a season we see teams who are eliminated from finals contention relax and let the shackles off and show their best traits. The fact this hasn’t happened for the Welsh Fire can only mean they are not good enough in the first place. They now have two matches to determine who they want to keep for next season and who is going to be released back into the draft.
To be fair, there hasn’t really been many who have stood up and there wasn’t much in the way of positives from their loss to the London Spirit last time out, other than the batting of Leus du Plooy who continues to hit the ball nicely. We can expect the Fire to keep rotating their stock in a bid to find something to take out of this season into the next one but even now it is pretty obvious that if the Welsh outfit are going to be competitive next term they will need to do a lot of good work in the drafts.
Northern Superchargers
It hasn’t been quite as poor a season for the Northern Superchargers but it is one which I feel has continually stuttered and lacked consistency. Each time they look like they are in a position to do something they stumble and that has pretty much ended their hopes of qualifying. They still have a chance to rectify things with a big win here and then it might set up a huge clash with the Southern Brave on the final day of the regular league phase.
The Superchargers have shown a brutal edge with the bat throughout the tournament. Unfortunately for them, they have been pretty ordinary with the ball and now they are missing their go to man at the death of the innings because Dwayne Bravo has left for the CPL. That is a big problem and is likely to pile on the pressure on their batters who are going to have to make up the shortfall. They probably won’t need to worry here but it could cost them much later in the season.
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Key Players
Ben Duckett is the leading batter for the Welsh Fire and showed that again with a top score against the London Spirit. He was involved in that incredible piece of fielding on the boundary in that game too so he hasn’t chucked the towel in.
With Dwayne Bravo away and not around at the end of the innings the Northern Superchargers might need to do their best work at the beginning of it and that brings David Willey into the game. His new ball spell will be key as will his batting in the middle order.
Betting
We have a similar situation here that we had on Thursday whereby we have a warm favourite who are playing for something against a team who can play with freedom. The team playing with freedom won on Thursday evening and while I’m anything but convinced the Welsh Fire will win here, the potential for someone to come off and leave us sweating on a short priced runner isn’t something that inspires me. That takes me to the side markets once again.
The market in particular is the player performance of David Willey which even at 39.5 looks a trifle on the low side to me. We know Willey will bowl his 20 balls barring something bizarre and he’ll open the bowling at an opening pair and top order that have no form at all. He batted three in the previous match but is unlikely to bat much lower than four so he is going to be a significant feature in this match. It might be that he gets five balls at the death without Bravo around as well which would enhance his chance of wickets. Willey has picked up a brace of wickets in the two away games he has played this season and if he does that for a third time here he’ll cover his performance. You would have to think there are runs to be added to any bowling total and he won’t be hidden in the field either. Put it all together and the England all-rounder should get to 40 points and beyond.
Tips
Back D.Willey’s Performance – Over 39.5pts for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Bet365
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