We are into the second week of April, which as far as golf is concerned means only one thing – that Magnolia Lane is about to open its gates to the biggest and best in the world for The Masters, the first major of the year.
Jon Rahm rose above all around him to place the Green Jacket on his shoulders a year ago and he returns to Augusta National looking to make a successful defence of the title. A seriously good field is out to take the crown from him.
Recent Winners
2023 – Jon Rahm
2022 – Scottie Scheffler
2021 – Hideki Matsuyama
2020 – Dustin Johnson
2019 – Tiger Woods
2018 – Patrick Reed
2017 – Sergio Garcia
2016 – Danny Willett
2015 – Jordan Spieth
2014 – Bubba Watson
The Course
If you are a big golf fan you will know all about Augusta National but anyone who may not be familiar with the track it is a par 72 which stretches to 7,555 yards and with rain in the area in the early stages it is expected to play to a full yardage. The fairways are wide here and the rough never really too penal particularly with the greens being soft which they will be even allowing for the sub air system to dry them out a bit. The green are the feature of this course. They are big and have large slopes on them.
This has become a course for the bigger hitters and with rain around during the opening round that will not change here. If you are a statistics man then approach shots is the one although more and more often putting is becoming a key feature for the winner of the tournament. There are near enough no flat lies on this golf course so keep an eye on the players who can be creative and shape their shots as players will need to move the ball both ways at times.
The Field
The majors are now the only time we see the whole of the golfing world come together but it could be argued that The Masters is the weaker of the fields for the four because the entry list is limited to 89 for this year. Nevertheless, the defending champion Jon Rahm puts LIV team golf to one side this week as he attempts to be the first man in 22 years to win this tournament in successive years. The world number one Scottie Scheffler will be his chief danger.
As ever, Rory McIlroy will be looking to complete the Grand Slam while we have the other three major champions, Brooks Koepka, Wyndham Clark and Brian Harman all in the field. All Masters champions get exemption back into the tournament which means that the likes of Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson and Bubba Watson are back competing at the elite level. So many other great players are in the reduced but largely high quality field this week.
Market Leaders
Scottie Scheffler won this tournament in 2022 and the world number one is the 9/2 favourite to get his hands back on the opening major of the season. He arrives here with a pair of wins and a second in his last three starts which includes strolling away with The Players Championship last month. Last year there were concerns about how he putts when he arrived here but the softer greens might alleviate any lingering fears if there are any. He is very much the one to beat here.
Rory McIlroy heads into the tournament as the 11/1 second favourite to finally get his hands on this title and complete the career Grand Slam as a result. I always think that pressure is enough of a reason to lay him in this tournament but to be fair to the Northern Irishman, he has changed things up a bit to give him a better chance of winning. He played last week and has been talking to Butch Harmon so perhaps he can be competitive here.
Jon Rahm seems to be the forgotten man in the betting market at 12/1. Prior to leaving for LIV Golf, Rahm was very much one of the leading three players in the world. He is still numerically in that list but there is a school of thought that LIV offers up a less competitive sporting heat but I’m not sure he has been there long enough for that to be the case. History is one thing which is against the Spaniard though with no player since Tiger Woods in 2002 having won successive Masters.
Xander Schauffele is a 16/1 poke to win the tournament this week. He has a very consistent record in major tournaments but those who have backed him religiously in them in recent times will know he is still to get over the line in one. I’m not completely convinced his game is as far clear of enough players in a field of this type for him to win this tournament, especially when the softer conditions is going to wake up the bigger hitters for the opening 2-3 rounds at least.
Main Bets
I’ll go with three main bets this week with the first of those being on the form horse from the LIV Tour in the form of Joaquin Niemann. Since August, the Chilean has six top 10 finishes on the new circuit and that includes a couple of wins. He has also won on the Australasian Tour when he took down the Australian Open where he beat the recent Qatar Masters winner Rikuya Hoshino in a play-off with Adam Scott and Min Woo Lee in behind. That tells us he can live in real fields again but if you need further evidence of it he has played in two DP World Tour events this season and finished in the top five of both. Niemann has always been a good iron player which is the key here but that win in Australia shows he can handle breezy conditions and he has got better with every trip to Augusta National. I think he’s ready to be a leading player this week.
Another player I expect to have a big week is Shane Lowry. I think the indifferent conditions have fallen into place nicely for a man who has plenty of form on his record in tough situations. Lowry is a major champion so we know that he can handle the pressure of tournaments like this one. The other reason to like Lowry here is because he sits third on the PGA Tour for strokes gained which is ideal for a course which is a second shot course. The breeze is expected to be fresh for the first three days which is perfect for the Irishman. You need to hit irons well around here and a good touch is required as well. Lowry ticks both boxes and his run of T4-3-T19 in the Cognizant, Arnold Palmer, Players stretch offers up excellent form. Lowry was third here a couple of years ago and should go well again this week.
The softer conditions in the early part of the week will lead to aggressive golf and that should bring Sahith Theegala into the mix. I have backed Theegala a couple of times this season and got place money out of him and I’m hoping for a bit more from him here. He is a strong driver of the ball and with the rain of Thursday widening the fairways that is certainly going to be no bad thing and he is solid enough with the irons. Theegala has a good touch which is definitely useful here and he scores well on the par 5s which is big here because three of the four are gettable and can be the difference. Theegala had a top 10 on his debut last year and should be even better now he returns as a PGA Tour winner.
Outsiders
I’ll go with a couple of major champions and outside bets this week too. The first of those is the winner of the last major that was played in Brian Harman. Harman doesn’t have the best of records in this event but he was T12 in 2021 so we know he can go well here. This course fits left-handers well because they can cut or fade the ball around most of these holes. Harman showed at The Open that he is a big time player and he is a really good ball striker, especially with the irons. He can hole putts better than most as well and feels like a big price this week.
Patrick Reed is a former winner of this tournament who arrives here with three top 10s in the event in the last four years so Augusta clearly gets his juices flowing. You would have to say that his LIV Golf form is nothing to write home about but it might just be that he takes the money and runs there because he has a couple of top 10s in a pair of Asian Tour events in recent times. Reed does bring a top 10 from LIV last time out into this tournament with him. If there is a weakness in his game it is that the driver can go a bit skewwhiff but the soft nature of the track will widen the fairways. We know he knows his way around here and with his touch I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the mix on Sunday once again.
Tips
Back J.Niemann to win The Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with Bet365 (1/5 1-8)
Back S.Lowry to win The Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Bet365 (1/5 1-8)
Back S.Theegala to win The Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back B.Harman to win The Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Unibet (1/5 1-7)
Back P.Reed to win The Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 71.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
