Let us hope that Tour de France Stage 13 has a more sedate ending than stage 12! What a farce but glad common sense prevailed and Chris Froome and Richie Porte were not penalised. I won’t go into my full opinion other than to say it was 100% the correct decision.
Stage 13 – The Profile
Stage 13 is the first of two Individual Time Trials (ITTs) in this years race. The stage is 37.5 kms so it is only a medium length ITT. It is a lumpy course starting in Bourg-Saint-Andeol and finishing in La Caverne du Pont-D’Arc.
The course favours the strong men. This is doubly the case as the strong winds of the last two days are expected to feature once again.
The riders climb from the start line until the 7 km point. There follows a flatter section of about 16 kms and then a sharp descent. A second flat section, this time of 6 kms leads into a shorter climb in the last 5 kms.
The ITT Riders vs the GC Riders
ITT Riders
There are four riders in the peloton who are real ITT specialists – Fabian Cancellera (Trek), Tony Martin (Etixx-Quickstep), Vasil Kiryienka (Sky) and Tom Dumoulin (Giant Alpecin). Unsurprisingly, they are all amongst the favourites with the bookmakers.
Cancellera is the finest ITT rider of his generation. This is his final season of riding and he would love to win stage 13. In the last couple of seasons he has lost his dominance in this discipline. This is reflected in his odds being in the 21.0-23.0 range. I think he will finish in the top 6 or 7 but I cannot see him winning the stage.
I feel the same way about Tony Martin. He is not quite the ITT rider he was 2 years ago. In this race he has being doing an incredible amount of work. He is in the lead-out for sprinter Marcel Kittel and then also works as a domestique for Dan Martin and his GC aims. I wonder whether the exertion and energy given every day will mean he is under par here. You can back him at 5.00 but I just don’t see it.
Vasil Kiryienka was a surprising winner of the World Championship ITT in 2015. He has always done well in power ITTs but had not really won against all of the worlds best in such a big race. He too has been putting in so much work for Chris Froome in this years race. I do think that odds in the 15.0 range are great for a small EW bet.
Tom Dumoulin stated quite early in this years race that he would lose time early so he could go in breaks and win stages. That has worked as he nabbed his stage win but he is also targeting this ITT. He was great in similar races last season and is priced as second favourite in the 3.75-5.00 range. In the last couple of stages he has ridden safely in bigger groups saving energy for this stage. I think he will be very close to the win in stage 13.
GC Riders
Of the GC riders Chris Froome stands out. He leads the race having taken time from his rivals uphill, downhill and on the flat. He is overwhelming favourite to win stage 13 and priced quite short in the 2.5-3.0 range. This means the EW is not a viable option. He will be smarting from the farce on Mont Ventoux and I expect him to put in a huge performance. He will be close and will beat his GC rivals but I don’t think he will beat Dumoulin.
A rider who has improved hugely in the ITT is Thibaut Pinot (FDJ). Like Dumoulin he seems to be picking his moments. Very early in the 2016 race he lost time in the GC battle and now seems focused on the KOTM and stage wins. Pinot lost a lot of time in stage 12 but he saved energy for this stage. He has an overly generous price of 26.0 and this has huge value.
2016 was to be the year that Nairo Quintana (Movistar) finally won the TDF. It isn’t looking like that will happen. He lost time on Mont Ventoux to a number of his GC rivals and looked tired. He is a smaller rider and whilst his ITT has improved, the wind that is expected will hurt him more than his bigger rivals. I think Quintana’s team-mate Jon Izaguirre will beat him on the stage.
Another rider to look out for is Tejay Van Garderan (BMC Racing). This is the one discipline where he has done well in the past. A good performance should see him jump to 5th on GC ahead of Romain Bardet (AG2R) and Alejandro Valverde (Movistar). You can back Tejay at 34.00 which offers EW potential.
The bookmakers are massively overlooking one rider for stage 13. Bauke Mollema (Trek) is possibly the revelation of this race currently in 3rd position. He was the only rider able to go with Froome and Porte on Mont Ventoux so his form is excellent. In last years TDF he finished in the top 15 in each ITT and he has improved since then. As he is genuinely fighting for a podium place in this race he has no option but to go flat out. If I was pressed I would suggest a top 6-7 position would be an excellent one and anything higher would be brilliant. However his price is a ridiculous 201.00 and I think a small EW bet has the potential to pay huge dividends.
Tour de France Stage 13 – Tips
Back Thibaut Pinot to win stage 13 with a 1.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 26.0 with Paddy Power. VOID – PINOT RETIRED FROM THE RACE PRIOR TO THE STAGE
Back Bauke Mollema win stage 13 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 201.0 with Paddy Power.
Back Tom Dumoulin to win stage 13 with a 2.5/10 stake at 4.00 with Paddy Power. WON
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