Following on from a calmer stage 14 with the expected bunch sprint finish Tour de France Stage 15 is a brute. With the temperature set to soar Team Sky will be in defend mode to protect Chris Froome’s race lead.
Stage 15 – The Profile
Stage 15 is 160 kms in length starting in Bourg-en-Bresse and featuring a day of climbing.
The days course features 6 classified climbs and two others that could have classified status. From the off a break will go chasing KOTM points with the category 1 Col du Berthiand reached at 23 kms.
Expect the top two in the KOTM standings – Thomas de Gendt (Lotto-Soudal) and Rafal Majka (Tinkoff) to feature in the break. Behind the GC teams will control the front of the race – especially Sky. The next 60 kms feature three more climbs (2 x category 3 and 1 x category 2) plus the Intermediate Sprint. Could we see Peter Sagan (Tinkoff) on the attack once more for Green Jersey points?
An unclassified climb is peaked at about the 90 km point. From here the days serious climbing will begin. The Hor Category Grand Colombier is 12.8 kms in length with a 6.8% gradient. Most of the steeper sections are close to the top. The riders with podium pretensions must attack here. If they can gain some time they will stay away on the fast descent into the valley. The breakaway will probably be caught here.
After 5-6 kms of flat roads the riders climb part of the way back up the same mountain (Lacets du Grand Colombier). This is shorter at 8.4kms but also steeper with a 7.6% gradient. If the yellow jersey was still up for grabs (it isn’t barring accidents) then a huge GC battle would occur. As leader Froome has a huge advantage I can see him marking his rivals early and attacking late. Its always nice to win a stage in yellow!
From the top of the final mountain the riders have a 14 kms section of descending and flatter roads into the finish at Culoz.
Likely stage winners
Note
There have been no stages winners so far in the 2016 race from France, Spain or Italy. This is the first time 14 stages have been completed without one stage being won from a rider from those nations!
The GC Riders
Bauke Mollema (Trek) is riding high in 2nd place on the GC. Mollema is the closest challenger to Froome and he has ridden exceptionally well in the mountain stages. He will need to repeat this tomorrow. The question is does he go for broke and attempt to win the race or does he try to defend his 2nd place? I would hope for the former but my heads says he will defend. He may not be this close to top spot with 7 stages to go in the future so he should attack. The time gap of 1 minute 47 seconds to Froome is significant and he is likely to lose more time in the second ITT. In previous Grand Tours he has tended to fade in the 3rd week. Stage 15 is a big test for Mollema.
Chris Froome (Sky) is in a position of strength. His team has the option of defending for the rest of the race. The time gaps he has on his closest rivals will increase in the second ITT so his buffer is huge. Three of the Sky team dropped back on the run in on stage 14, conserving energy for Sundays brutal terrain. I can see them crushing the GC rivals and Froome attempting to escape on the final climb to race to a second stage win. Odds in the 13.0-15.0 range suggest great value to me.
Adam Yates (Orica) now sits in third place overall. He is about a minute behind Mollema but of more concern are the two Movistar riders Nairo Quintana and Alejandro Valverde just behind him. Yates has been magnificent in the 2016 race but the third week will be a real test. He is young and slightly inexperienced in Grand Tours and he might be a little vulnerable on stage 15. Of the two Movistar riders I actually favour Valverde over Quintana. I was 50/50 as to whether Froome or Quintana would prevail pre-race. Quintana has looked poor to be brutally honest. He is losing time on a regular basis now and I wonder whether the team might allow Valverde some freedom to try for a podium place.
The real danger to the podium pretences of all three is Richie Porte (BMC Racing). Porte lost a couple of minutes early int he race due to a puncture. Take that off his time and he would be in 3rd place. He is the only rider other than Mollema that has been able to match Froome in the mountains. I can see him having a big day on Stage 15. I think he takes back some time on Yates and the Movistar pair. You can back Porte in the 17.0-21.0 – perfect for an EW bet on stage 15!
Romain Bardet (AG2R) is the top French rider by some distance in the 2016 race. He is in 7th place on the GC and has a reputation as a climber. He has managed to stay with the top riders but ultimately dropped time in the finale of the last climb of the day. I cannot see this changing on Stage 15. He has real potential for the future but he is not quite at that top TDF winning level yet.
Outsiders
If the break is allowed to stay away look for Rafal Majka and Thomas de Gendt to be in with a good chance of victory. They need the KOTM points so there is a huge chance both will be in the break.
Another rider to consider and one to possibly break through for a French win is Pierre Rolland (Cannondale). The French media were bigging up his chances pre-race. I feel he has never been in with a chance of winning the Tour de France but can nick stage wins. Rolland has lost time regularly in the last week and is now over 15 minutes behind Froome. That might just be enough to allow him to get into the days break. Rolland has won mountain stages on the TDF in previous races from breaks. Stage 15 might be his opportunity. He is priced in the 23.0-29.0 range – perfect as a small outside bet.
Tour de France Stage 15 Tips
Paddy Power are paying 5 places on the stage so I have opted to place all bets with them.
Back Chris Froome to win Stage 15 with a 1.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 5) at 15.0 with Paddy Power.
Back Pierre Rolland to win Stage 15 with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 5) at 26.0 with Paddy Power.
Back Richie Porte to win stage 15 with a 1.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 5) at 19.0 with Paddy Power.
Back all three here:
Apologies – I accidently posted the prices for all three riders as 15.0 (cut and paste). This has now been ciorrected to reflect their prices at the time of the post going live – Martin.
