What a dramatic finale to stage 19. The rainfall on the final descent causing absolute chaos with multiple crashes amongst the top ten in the GC. Race leader Chris Froome riding the last climb on his team-mates bike and a French stage winner! Well done Romain Bardet. Tour de France Stage 20 is the final ‘proper’ stage in the 2016 race. It too will feature a tough day of Alpine climbing.
Stage 20 – The Profile
The profile for stage 20 shows another brutal day. This stage is fairly short at 146.5kms. It starts in Megeve and features 4 climbs. The first is a category two climb which starts after 9 kms and is peaked at 21kms.
I would expect riders to try to form a break. After race leader, Froome’s crash yesterday the other GC teams might try to test how well he has recovered. Sky will close ranks and defend throughout.
A short descent takes the riders onto the first of two category one climbs. A long time TDF favourite – the Col de la Colombiere isn’t the toughest climb at a gradient of 5.7% but is 11.4kms long. From the top the riders have a long downhill section before the second category one climb. The Col de la Ramaz starts at 93.5kms and is 14kms in length at a tougher 7.1%.
A further descent and short flat section takes the riders to the final climb – the hor category Col de Joux Plane. This is the toughest climb of the day, coming near the end at 8.5% for 11.5kms. The stage doesn’t finish at the peak but in Morzine in the valley a further 10kms away.
Magnificent in Morzine
I think stage 20 will feature a fight out amongst the top 11 riders as they seek to improve their overall position. Chris Froome is perfectly safe as race winner. True, he crashed on stage 19, but it was a slowish, skiddy fall. One that will leave road rash but it doesn’t look like it caused serious damage. Plus, he has the 4 minute+ advantage on his nearest rival. Team Sky can simply protect Froome all day. As mentioned above, he might be tested on the first and possibly second climbs of the day. I don’t see him being under serious threat though unless the weather turns really nasty. Then anything can happen!
There will be two battles within that top 11. The riders in 2nd-5th place have a realistic shot at a podium place. Some like Romain Bardet (AG2R) in 2nd will defend whilst Richie Porte (BMC Racing) in 5th will have to attack.
The second battle will include those in 6th-11th places. Fabio Aru (Astana) is probably too far behind Richie Porte to jump up the GC but he could be challenged by riders in 7th (Alejandro Valverde) down to 11th (Joaquim Rodriguez).
Amongst the top 11 the most fascinating battle might be for the White Jersey classification. Adam Yates (Orica) leads Louis Meintjes (Lampre Merida) by just over 2 minutes. But Yates struggled on stage 19 and looked really tired. He probably has enough to hold on.
The breakaway
Of course this might all be played out as the race within the race. It is possible a break succeeds on stage 20 if it contains the right riders – Rafal Majka (Tinkoff) for a stage win possibly?
There are a number of teams that have yet to register a stage win – of those Astana and Movistar are the biggest budget teams. They must get something from the 2016 race. Astana have tried on multiple occasions via breaks and in closing down the break on stage 19. They have not succeeded. Movistar have been flat in their challenge with Sky. I suspect they will both place riders in the breakaway on stage 20.
Hence, I like the chances of Jon Izaguirre (Movistar) EW at 67.0 and Vincenzo Nibali (Astana) at 9.0 (joint favourite). Now that Rafal Majka has effectively won the KOTM he doesn’t need to counter his rivals on the stage. This could open the door for Thomas de Gendt (Lotto Soudal) – who can be backed at 81.0.
A couple of real long shots could make an impression – Georg Priedler (Giant Alpecin) at 301.0 and Lawson Craddock (Canonndale) at 501.0. Neither have really featured but Priedler has a decent mountain pedigree and Craddock is seen as an emerging rider with climbing ability. A £1 EW stake on either is no real loss. Of the two I prefer the chances of Preidler.
Tour de France Stage 20 Tips
Back Vincenzo Nibali to win stage 20 with a 1.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 9.00 with Paddy Power. PLACED
Back Jon Izaguirre to win stage 20 with a 0.75/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 67.00 with Paddy Power. WON
Back Thomas de Gendt to win stage 20 with a 0.75/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 81.00 with Paddy Power.
Back Georg Preidler to win stage 20 with a 0.25/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 301.00 with Paddy Power.
Bet on them all here:
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