Tour de France Stage 5 is the first stage in the 2016 race that features decent climbing. It is the first tough day of the race with multiple categorised climbs. This will not end with a bunch sprint.
The Profile
Stage 5 starts in Limoges and finishes 216kms later in Le Lioran. The course is lumpy for most of the day.
The first 130kms of the stage are the easier part of the course. A small category 4 climb comes 15kms into the stage. A breakaway will take the KOTM points here and stay away for as long as possible.
The last third of the stage is where the speed will increase. There are 5 categorised climbs in this section and with 3 x category 3’s and the first two category 2 climbs.
The first of the category 2 climbs – the Pass de Peyrol (Puy Mary) is peaked at 185kms. This is where the peloton will split into many smaller groups. The sprinters will be dropped, leaving the GC riders, punchers and their teams to contest the finale.
There follows another category 2 climb (Col du Perthus) and a category 3 climb (Col de Font de Cere). The latter being some 3kms from the finish line. The finish itself is on an uphill section into Le Lioran.
The stage will be tough. The four riders who finished in the top 4 places on stage 2 will be prominent again. I think there will be a sprint for the line from a group of about 30-35 riders.
A Repeat of Stage 2
The main protagonists for Stage 5 are the same as for Stage 2. Peter Sagan, Alejandro Valverde, Julian Alaphilippe and Dan Martin, the top 4 on Stage 2 top the bookies prices for Wednesday.
Julian Alaphilippe (Etixx Quickstep)is favourite going into the stage at odds around the 6.00 mark. He was impressive on Sunday when Sagan narrowly pipped him for the win in an uphill sprint. The roads are tougher in stage 5 and this plays slightly more into Alaphilippe’s hands. If he can win the 10 seconds bonus might give him the Yellow Jersey. That would also require him gaining a 3 second time gap over Sagan on the stage. I think the bookmakers just have his favourite status right and remember 6.0 has EW value.
If ever a stage was designed for the 2016 Peter Sagan (Tinkoff) then this is it. His main sprint rivals in the Green Jersey contest will probably be dropped on the earlier climbs. A win would keep him in yellow and further increase his lead in the Green Jersey classification too. A price of 10.0 seems a little high to me is a value EW selection. I’m not 100% convinced he will win but he has been in contention to win every stage so far.
Alejandro Valverde (Movistar) is the danger man in stage 5. If you check his career race wins a lot have come on this type of road profile. He finished 3rd on stage 2 but the extra climbing here will work in his favour in two ways. The bunch will be smaller and there will be no sprinters or their teams getting in the way. I like Valverde at odds in the 7.5-8.0 range. Like Alaphilippe, Valverde could claim the Yellow Jersey were he to win tomorrow and also gain 8-10 seconds on the stage over Sagan and Alaphilippe.
Dan Martin (Etixx Quickstep) was 4th on stage 2 and will go well again in the finish at Le Lioran. I’m not sure he will win this stage as it suits his team-mate Alaphilippe a little more. Martin will probably target one of the mountain stages instead – possibly this weekend in the Pyrenees. You can take an EW punt on him in the 9.0-13.0 range.
All of the GC contenders should be in the front group. They won’t want to lose any time on their rivals here with the mountains approaching at the end of the week. It will be interesting to see how well Alberto Contador (Tinkoff) has recovered from his two crashes. If there is any sign of weakness he will be attacked by Movistar, Sky, Astana and BMC. However, I would be surprised to see any major time losses amongst the GC riders on stage 5.
Of the other riders Greg Van Avermaet (BMC Racing) could be in contention for stage 5 honours. He does go well on this type of terrain and can be quick in a sprint from a smaller group. His price is all over the pace – as low as 17.0 and as high as 34.0. If you can get the 34.0 he is worth a very small EW bet.
Tour de France Stage 5 Tips
I am only going to back two riders when my head says I should back three. I am leaving Sagan of my list but it is such a close run thing.
Back Julian Alaphilippe to win stage 5 with a 1.25/10 EW stake (1/4 odds top 3) at odds of 6.00 with Bet365.
Back Alaphilippe here:
Back Alejandro Valverde to win stage 5 with a 1.25/10 EW stake (1/4 odds top 3) at odds of 8.00 with Paddy Power.
Back Valverde here:
