Tour de France Stage 6 on Thursday should see a larger group contest the finish. The breakaway flummoxed the peloton on stage 5 with a rider I mentioned, but didn’t tip winning. I knew as soon as live coverage came up on Eurosport that the break would win. The surprising aspect was that the break was allowed a gap of almost 15 minutes before it was chased. Well done to Greg Van Avermaet (BMC Racing) – he will hold the Yellow Jersey until Friday.
Stage 6 – The Profile
The 6th stage of this years TDF takes the riders on another 190km+ route. The stage starts in Arpajon-Sur-Cere and finishes in Montauban.
The profile shows the stage as being a little on the lumpy side. The first 100kms of the stage feature a couple of smaller categorised climbs. The general trend for the day is one of gradual descending.
Once more we can expect a breakaway to go early on in the stage. Given the terrain of stages 7-9 in the Pyrenees mountains, the sprinters teams have to control stage 6. This is the last chance they will get to win a stage until after the first rest day (Monday 11th July). I doubt we will see a time gap in excess of 8 minutes for the break on Thursday. This will be gradually reeled back in around the final climb of the day at 149kms. The run to the line will then be extremely fast.
Five go Mad in Montauban
I have a high level of confidence that stage 6 will be a bunch sprint. That means the five riders who have featured in the top 3 on the sprint days will be to the forefront once again.
Let us start with Peter Sagan (Tinkoff), who lost his hold on the Yellow Jersey on stage 5. He has been amazingly consistent in this years race and been a threat in each of the sprint finishes. The exertions of the first 5 days, including being the last of the five main sprinters to be dropped on stage 5 may tell in Montauban. He is fifth favourite at around the 11.0 mark and I will leave him alone now until next week.
The four other sprinters I will mention saved more energy than Sagan on Wednesday. Sagan tried to stick with the GC group for as long as possible riding himself to a stand still. This may have been because he was race leader, wanting to put on a show and respect his position. He may have been more sensible to have dropped away more quickly riding below his maximum level to save himself for stage 6.
Marcel Kittel (Etixx-Quickstep) returned to form with an impressive stage win on stage 4. He had been a major disappointment prior to that stage but returned with a bang. He was simply too powerful in an uphill sprint for every one of his rivals. He is a short favourite tomorrow at odds of 2.75-3.0. This is a little too short for me given his erratic finishes in the 3 bunch sprints so far.
Mark Cavendish (Dimension Data) is 2nd favourite at odds in the range of 4.50. He is the only multiple stage winner thus far in the 2016 race. He struggled on the uphill finish on stage 4. The Montauban finish is much better for him. Given his early success 4.50 is much better value than the price with which Kittel can be backed.
Andre Greipel (Lotto-Soudal) looked primed to challenge for stage 4 honours. His team controlled the front of the peloton heading into the final climb. This placed him in front of his sprint rivals but when he tried to accelerate there was no power. He was quickly passed by a number of riders and then he just stopped and dropped out of the top 10. Greipel has 2nd place finishes in this years race and would love to win a stage. Sadly, he is as erratic as Kittel and that makes it hard to back him with any real faith on a flat finish. The bookmakers share my reservations – pricing Greipel in the 5.5-6.5 range. The EW is in play if you are brave.
Bryan Coquard (Direct Energie) has really impressed me in this race. I didn’t think he could challenge for stage wins against the riders mentioned above. He was pipped by the width of a wheel by Kittel on stage 4 and I have to say I like his chances in Thursdays stage. I like his price even more – 10.0 offers a great EW return too. He would be the first French winner of a stage in the race were he to triumph.
NOTES – Vincenzo Nibali (Astana) lost a lot of time of stage 5 effectively eliminating the Leader 1A status he held behind Fabio Aru. I for one am happy about this turn of events. Aru deserves his chance to lead the Astana team. Nibali had his chance at the Giro d’Italia and now he either rides in support of Aru or leaves the race.
Tour de France Stage 6 Tips
Back Bryan Coquard to win stage 6 with a 1.25/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 10.0 with Paddy Power.
Back Coquard here:
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