Tour de France Stage 9 take the race into Spain and Andorra as the climbing in the Pyrennes continues. I called stage 8 right, up until Chris Froome attacked on the final descent in an amazing piece of opportunism. Still Dan Martin and Romain Bardet both placed so I’m happy enough with the result.
The big question tomorrow is whether Froome can keep his hold on the Yellow Jersey.
Stage 9 – The Profile
This is another punishing stage for the riders. The stage 9 route is 184.5 kms long from Vielha Val D’Aran to Andorre Arclais.
The riders start climbing the first of three category 1 climbs – the Port de la Bonaigua shortly after the start. A break will form on this climb but expect the peloton to ride at a more comfortable pace.
The riders seeking KOTM points and some with Green Jersey aspirations should make up the bulk of the break. The top of the Port de la Bonaigua is reached at 19kms. There follows a descent and some relatively flat sections for the next 50 kms. Then comes the second category 1 climb – Port del Canto. This is 19 kms in length but only a 5.4% gradient average. The peloton should stabilise the time gap to the breakaway at this point.
A further 15 kms of descent take the riders into a valley at 110 kms and from here the bulk of the stage is up up up! The Intermediate Sprint comes at 138 kms on a category 2 climb the Côte de la Comella (4.2 kms at 8.2%). This is quickly followed by the Col de Beixalis (category one – 6.4 kms at 8.4%). It is on these two climbs that the GC teams of Sky, Movistar and BMC Racing will close down the break.
The finale – the HC ‘off category’ climb to the finish line at Andorre Arcalis is 10.1 kms in length at 7.1%. If the GC battle doesn’t ignite on the upper slopes of the steeper Col de Beixalis, it will definitely kick-off on the final climb. Expect at most two riders to reach the line at the front of the days racing.
Who triumphs in Andorra?
Stage 9 will feature the first big showdown with the stage ending with its first proper mountain top finish. Sky were magnificent in stage 8, easily controlling the 3 man breakaway throughout. Chris Froome was then able to capitalise on their incredible work by escaping to take the stage, race lead and a bundle of KOTM points (remember I backed him in this classification pre-race). Froome in his end of stage interview did offer the rather frank answer that he is unsure whether he did ‘too much’ today.
Watching stage 8, Nairo Quintana looked the most comfortable of all the riders in the front group. He will be annoyed to have lost time – 23 second in all to Froome in such circumstances. Sky can play a bit of a defensive battle in stage 9 if they want too. I think they attack full on Team Sky style in the last 20 kms of Stage 9. They almost have no choice as a number of riders are still within 30 seconds of the race lead. I don’t think they have to counter every attack just those by the riders who seem to pose the most danger – Quintana, Martin, Bardet and possibly Porte. Froome is favourite to win stage 9 as a price in the 3.25-3.50 range.
Movistar lost riders a little quicker than I expected in stage 8. Only Alejandro Valverde was with Quintana at the summit of the last climb. This surprised me quite a lot. Of course Quintana has the ability to ride with little support and win stages. He might have too on Sunday if he wants to win this years race. You can back Quintana at 4.00. The EW just about works with those odds.
Dan Martin (Etixx Quickstep) continues to ride extraordinarily well. His reaction was one of frustration on finishing 2nd in stage 8. This was a stage he could easily have won if not for Froome’s opportunism. The big question facing Martin is can he stay with Froome and Quintana tomorrow. In previous years Grand Tours he hasn’t quite been able to mange this and dropped time. Until I see him prove on the road that he can match them I can’t back him to win the stage. I do like him in the Head-to-Head market though.
Romain Bardet (AG2R La-Mondiale) was my tip to be Top Frenchman in this race in our websites weekly newsletter. He leads his fellow French riders in the standing after his 4th place on stage 8. His closest rival Pierre Rolland crashed and both riders are the subject of a Head-to-Head tip below. He too has impressed me but he did show signs of slipping slightly when Sergio Henao (Sky) and Froome started to put the hammer down on the final climb on Saturday. The longer climbs suit him, but again like Dan Martin, in previous races he lost time in the toughest mountain stages to Froome and Quintana. You could back Bardet at odds in the 17.0 range if you fancy an EW bet.
Richie Porte (BMC Racing) climbed almost on par with Froome in the Criterium de Dauphine 5 weeks ago. Here he finds himself 2 minutes down on Froome. Porte doesn’t have a history as an attacking rider but he will have to go on the offensive to close that gap. He might bide his time on stage 9 and focus his efforts on the stages in the Alpes. YOu can back Porte at 13.0 for stage 9 – this has decent EW value. His team-mate Tejay Van Garderan is closer to Froome in the GC. However, he has been soundly beaten in mountain stages elsewhere this and in previous seasons by Froome. I don’t see him in the top5 in Andorra on Sunday.
I don’t rate any other riders chances Alberto Contador (Tinkoff) lost more time. Fabio Aru was dropped at the top of the final mountain climb but got back on during the descent. Tomorrow’s stage I think Aru will lose a decent amount of time. He had no form coming in to this race and back-to-back brutal stages will be too much. I have no idea why he is 3rd favourite for the stage at 7.00. Crazy!
One massive outsider is Sergio Henao. He was the last team-mate with Froome on Saturday’s stage and I think stage 9 will see a repeat. Henao is a brilliant climber in his own right and odds of 101.00 with a very small EW bet could result in a big payout! Remember Sky in previous TDF’s have had a number of 1-2 finishes in mountain stages!
Tour de France Stage 9 – Tips
Stage Winner Tips
I’m going to back Quintana purely because his price has a little more value than that available for Froome. I think it will be really close in the end but Quintana will just win the stage.
Back Nario Quintana to win stage 9 with a 2.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds 3 places) at 4.33 with Paddy Power.
Back Sergio Henao to win stage 9 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds 3 places) at 101.00 with Paddy Power.
Head-to Head Tips
Back Dan Martin to beat Joaquim Rodriguez for a 2.0/10 stake at 2.25 with Paddy Power. WON
Back Romain Bardet to beat Pierre Rolland for a 4.0/10 stake at 1.66 with Paddy Power. WON
Back them all here:
NOTE – I try to get my TDF Stage betting previews posted the evening before the stage begins. This means that I’m limited to which bookmaker to select because some do not provide pricing unil the day of the stage.
Please feel free to shop around for higher odds.
I have found that Paddy Power generally offer the best range of odds for cycling events.
