The first proper mountain road stage of the race takes place on Friday with Critérium du Dauphiné Stage 5. Expect a much different tempo to the day’s racing with the GC riders very much to the fore.
The Profile
Stage 5 is a day for ups-and-downs with 7 categorised climbs.
The stage is fairly short at 140kms starting in La Ravoire. Following an initial level section the riders cross 5 of the 7 categorised climbs between the 15km and 59km point.
One certainty is that a break will form somewhere in this part of the stage. This will likely feature some of the strong men and possibly one or two of the older riders who have climbing skills -maybe a day for Thomas Voeckler to show his stuff with a day of gurning for the French cameras!
The race will really ignite on the lead up to the final category 2 climb into the finish at Vaujany. The road swings upwards from 100kms onwards. The pace will be kept high on the approaches to the climb, possibly by the Team Sky train – although their tactics thus far in this race have differed from their norm. A small group of riders will contest the stage win with the biggest names firmly in contention.
Who conquers the Vaujany climb?
We need to start with the big two – Alberto Contador and Chris Froome and also throw in a bit of Richie Porte. The early stage prices have Contador as second favourite at 9.00 and Froome equal 3rd with Julian Alaphilippe at 12.00. Porte is available at an interesting 26.0 and might be the pick of the top three as an EW bet.
There is a little uncertainty to how the stage will end. The GC riders won’t want to drop time and shouldn’t on the climb into the finish. More important is Stage 6 on Saturday, the ‘queen stage’ that features the toughest climbing of the Dauphine. The final category 1 climb on stage 6 is where the race will be won. Due to this I won’t back Froome or Contador for stage 5 victory. This will probably come back and haunt me now with a full on Froome attack!
Alaphilippe has ridden spectacularly the last two days with third and then second placed finishes in sprints! He could be set to take the race lead tomorrow. The 2nd category climb in to the finish is perfect for him and Dan Martin his teammate. Martin has disappointed thus far and I am surprised he is favoured to win stage 5 by the bookmakers – currently 8.0. Alaphilippe at 12.0 is much better value – he is riding better than Martin.
Stage 2 winner Jesus Herrada of Movistar looks to be at too large a price at 26.0. Herrada’s sprint at the end of stage 2 was frighteningly reminiscent of his non-competing team-mate Alejandro Valverde in his pomp. The stage 5 finish is similar enough to stage 2 to mark Herrada down as a consideration for an EW bet.
Richie Porte is priced at 17.0. Porte is more likely to target Stage 6 and will be at much shorter odds for that stage. I see him in the top 10 but not having the sprint to be on the podium in Vaujany.
Stage 5 could be the perfect stage for one of the Team Sky mountain domestiques – Sergio Henao and Mikel Landa could be used as foils for Froome by attacking and forcing Contador’s team to chase. They are both priced in the 13.0-15.0 range. If pressed I would say Landa might be the more likely to go for victory.
Critérium du Dauphiné Stage 5 Tips
Back Mikel Landa to win stage 5 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 13.00 with Paddy Power.
Back Jesus Herrada to win stage 5 with a 0.75/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 23.00 with Paddy Power.
Back Julian Alaphilippe to win stage 5 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 12.00 with Paddy Power.
Bet on them all here:
