I mentioned in my Paris-Nice 2017 Overall Betting Preview that I wouldn’t be covering each stage in the race due to time commitment issues. Well happily I have managed to reschedule a few things and am now hopefully able to preview each days racing. Here is my stage 1 preview.
Stage 1 – Bois-D’Arcy to Bois-D’Arcy
Stage 1 of Paris-Nice 2017 takes place on Sunday 5th March. The stage is 148.5kms in length with a depart and finish in the same town – Bois-D’Arcy. The profile of the first stage is relatively flat. It features two long circuits with a sole categorised climb – a 3, in each lap. The really tricky parts of the laps include some gravel sections.
The profile is fairly flat for the most part so expect the standard day with an early breakaway. The sprinters teams will control the time gap and peg this back inside the final 10kms. The stage honours will be contested by a bunch sprint but it may not feature the expected riders. The final 7kms of the stage see the roads rise gradually. The final km is an uphill slope that may not favour a rider who prefers the flat sprints like Marcel Kittel.
Weather could also play a factor – rain and wind in combination with gravel might mean a smaller group contests the win.
Stage 1 – Favourites
Marcel Kittel (Quick-Step Floors) is stage favourite at odds of 6.0. He has the most wins in the 2017 season so far and at times has looked imperious. The one issue for me backing him, even at these generous odds, is that he doesn’t tend to win many uphill sprints. I prefer the chances of some other riders here on Sunday.
Jon Degenkolb (Trek Segafredo) is next in the market at 7.50. At his best Degenkolb would probably be stage favourite. He is a strong man sprinter who has had a lot of success on uphill sprints. He has one win this year in Dubai where he beat Kittel but that was on a fairly flat run in. Again, I prefer other options.
Michael Matthews (Team Sunweb) is priced at 8.50 for stage honours. I think this is way too short. True in the past he has been super in uphill finishes. The thing is he is a couple of years removed from producing wins against a field like this on these types of roads. Not for me.
The French duo of Nacer Bouhanni (Cofidis) and Arnaud Demare (FDJ) can be backed at 11.0 and 16.0 respectively. They have some history between them and will each want to be the top French sprinter in this their home race. Of the two I like Demare more based on 2017 form. He has a couple of wins in a smaller race and finished 6th last weekend in Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne. That 6th could have been a lot better had he not missed the late break in that race. Bouhanni prefers flatter finishes and usually requires a perfect leadout to win. I don’t think he will be afforded that chance on Sunday.
The two riders I really like for stage honours are Andre Greipel (Lotto Soudal) and Alexander Kristoff (Katusha). Each rider is quick in a bunch sprint especially in the finales like that expected in Bois-D’Arcy. Neither man knows when they are beaten and can be ultra-aggressive when needed. They are both really strong men – who will feature in the Monuments ‘Tour of Flanders’ and ‘Paris Roubaix’. They can be backed at 11.0 and 12.0 – perfect for EW bets.
The Rest
Beyond the above group riders that you could look at include:
- Dylan Groenewegen (LottoNL-Jumbo) – odds of 23.0. I like Groenewegen and backed him in both races last weekend but he got vcaugfht behind the big crash on Saturday and never looked at the races in Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne;
- Bryan Coquard (Direct Energie) can be backed at 14.0. He is another French sprinter but is probably a little behind the group mentioned above in terms of outright speed. He can get lost at times if a bunch sprint is disorganised so I will leave him here;
- Ben Swift (UAE Team Emirates) – backable at 23.0. Swift moved from Team Sky so he could more chances to challenge for race wins. I think he is a decent shout for Milan-San Remo in a couple of weeks. He is a canny rider that is a threat on tough finales. I’m not sure stage one is quite right but he could be worth a small EW punt.
Beyond that come a group of riders that are puncheurs like Julian Alaphilippe (QuickStep-Floors), Philippe Gilbert (BMC Racing) and Diego Ulissi (UAE Team Emirates). I’m not totally convinced the gradient of the final slope is steep enough for them to a be a real danger to all of the sprinters in this field. If you wanted to back one of the puncheurs choose Alaphilippe at 34.0.
Paris-Nice Stage 1 – Tips
Bet on Andre Greipel to win stage 1 with a 1.0/10 stake EW at 12.0 (1/4 odds top 3) with Bet365.
PLACED – Back Alexander Kristoff to win stage 1 with a 0.75/10 stake EW at 11.0 (1/4 odds top 3) with Bet365.
Bet on both here:
Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2017
