E3 Prijs Vlaanderen (formerly E3 Harelbeke) 2017 takes place on Friday 25th March. This is the second of the three races that make up Flemish Week. To give some betting context on E3 Prijs Vlaanderen you can read my preview of the first race in Flemish Week here:
UCI Cycling – Dwar Doors Vlaanderen – One Day Classic
E3 Prijs Vlaanderen has been raced on 59 previous occasions – starting in 1958.
Unsurprisingly, the Belgian riders dominate with 37 wins. However, they only have one win in the last nine runnings of the race – in 2012.
E3 Prijs Vlaanderen / E3 Harelbeke – Recent Winners
2012 – Tom Boonen – BEL – Omega Pharma-Quick Step
2013 – Fabian Cancellera – SUI – Radioshack-Leopard
2014 – Peter Sagan – SVK – Canondale
2015 – Gerraint Thomas – GBR – Team Sky
2016 – Michal Kwiatkowski – POL – Team Sky
This is a really interesting group of winners:
- Boonen has been both an elite sprinter and strongman;
- Cancellera (now retired) was an elite TT rider/strongman;
- Sagan is an elite sprinter/strongman;
- Thomas is a super One Week Race rider/strongman/ and Grand Tour number two;
- and Kwiatkowski a puncheur type.
So this suggests all types of riders could be in the mix for winning on Friday. Talk about making my betting preview tough!
E3 Prijs Vlaanderen – The Route/Profile
E3 Prijs Vlaanderen is 206kms in length. The racing starts and finishes in the town of Harelbeke. The route takes the riders on a crazy meandering course through Belgium. A little like Dwars Door Vlaanderen the racing really starts in the second half.
The first 100kms feature two of the fifteen climbs – Kattenberg at 30kms and La Houppe at 90kms. Between the 110km and 185km point the riders face 13 daunting Ardennes climbs. That is one every 6kms on average. These will sap the strength in many riders legs. The climbing starts with Oude Kruisberg at 110kms and 7 more climbs follow in the next 40kms. There is a brief hiatus before the roads reach some of the toughest climbs in the region – and ones that may decide the race.
The Kapelleberg, Paterberg and Oude Kwaremont between the 160km and 170km point have been decisive in past races. These three climbs are brutal and come in quick succession. The Paterberg is only 300m but it averages 12.5%! The Oude Kwaremont is 2200m in length, of which 1500m is cobbled, with a gradient average of 4.2%. If the conditions are wet the Oude Kwaremont can be deadly. I would anticipate that the riders with the strongest legs use this section of the course to try to split the peloton to pieces. From the peak of the Oude Kwaremont there are 36kms remaining and only two more climbs. This section will be very fast.
E3 Prijs Vlaanderen – Sagan vs GVA vs Quick-Step Floors
This group is the who’s who of Classic’s Racing. The betting market is dominated by a number of riders. I will look at thier chances here.
Peter Sagan (Bora-Hansgrohe) won this race in 2014. Sagan has a win (Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne), two second places and DNF in the One Day Classics races he has taken part in during 2017. If he were honest I would suspect Sagan would be disappointed with the two 2nd places as he lost sprints on each occasion to a rider he was expected to beat. Sagan is such a tough rider and you would think he is nailed on for a podium spot. The thing is his odds are only 3.0 so there is no EW value. If you back Sagan it must be a win only bet which frightens me a little given his propensity for finishing 2nd.
Greg Van Avermaet (BMC Racing) has a One Day Classics win in 2017 at Omloop Het Nieuwsblab – beating Sagan in the sprint for the line. GVA will lead BMC Racing here and aim to battle with Sagan and rival team – Quick-Step Floors, for the victory. Van Avermaet is second favourite for the win here at 9.0
Like in Dwar Doors Vlaanderen Quick-Step Floors have a star-studded team for E3 Prijs Vlaanderen. They grabbed first and second on Wednesday. Their winner – Yves Lampaert was something of a surprise in that race. He was one of the unfancied riders in the team but was able to use the one-two tactic with Philippe Gilbert from the 4 man escape group to nab the win. Gilbert grabbed second in that race and really looked like he was enjoying his racing. The move to a new team seems to have reinvigorated him in 2017.
Three others in the Quick-Step Floors team could be a threat here on Friday:
- Zdenek Stybar – missed the big break in Dwars Door Vlaanderen but along with Terpstra was ble to bridge to the second group with a late attack. Stybar looked immense during that phase of the race and I feel his power will be more prominent on Friday;
- Niki Terpstra – followed and then helped Stybar in Dwar Doors Vlaanderen. He looked powerful but I still feel he is more of a domestique type at this stage of his career;
- Tom Boonen holds the record with 5 wins at E3 Harelbeke. He would love to grab a 6th in his final season. I think his team have better options in the race and Boonen hasn’t shown he can win a race this year so far.
In the betting market you can back the Quick-Step boys at 13.0 (Terpstra), 17.0 (Gilbert and Stybar) and 21.0 (Boonen). As with Dwar Doors Vlaanderen I like Stybar best and the EW is definitely in play.
E3 Prijs Vlaanderen – The Rest
If one of the top group don’t win then there are a huge group of riders to consider.
Sep Vanmarcke (Canondale-Drapac) finsihed 3rd at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad but that result showed the flaws in Vanmarcke’s ability. He simply cannot beat anyone in a sprint. This is a shame because he is probably one of the top 5 riders in the world in this tough Belgian terrain. His odds are 19.0 – so you back the EW.
Teisj Benoot (Lotto-Soudal) had a creditable 7th in Dwar Doors Vlaanderen (he was one of my tips). He too missed the big break in the race but was prominent in what became the second group on the road. He is very close to the big breakthrough performance. At odds of 23.0 I’m tempted to back him for the second race running.
Luke Rowe and Ian Stannard lead the Team Sky charge. They are looking for three wins in a row at this race. Of the two Rowe would be my choice here. He has better results in 2017 and is a bit quicker in a sprint. Stannard is more of a threat as a lone breakaway rider. With the quality of the field I’m not sure he will be given that sort of leeway to attack. Rowe has better odds of 23.0 to Stannard at 26.0. I’m tempted by a small EW bet on Rowe and the Sky hat-trick.
Jon Degenkolb and Jasper Stuyven are the main contenders from Trek Segafredo. Degenkolb is a strong man with a sprint and this helps explain why his odds are 19.0 whilst Stuyven’s are at 17.0. Stuyven is more the powerful classics type that can power away from the front of the race. Of the two I would lean more towards Degenkolb here as he builds for the two Monuments in early April. In fact the teams third option – Fabio Felline, may be a better choice than Stuyven. He has been busy in the One Day Classic’s so far in 2017 and he has a decent enough sprint. Odds of 51.0 will appeal to some.
Alexander Kristoff (Katusha) spearheads the Katusha charge. Kristoff led home the main group last weekend in Milan-San Remo. That showed me his legs are good and he has quickness too as he beat a strong group of sprinters for that place. I’m seriously tempted to back him EW at 19.0. Kristoff has a team-mate in the race that I think could surprise – Tony Martin. Martin has long been amongst the top TT riders in the world. He has been a breakaway specialist and a powerful domestique. These are all pre-requisites for success in races like E3. Odds of 51.0 seem fair and a small EW bet could provide a nice win.
Oliver Naesen leads AR2R La Mondiale and hopes to better a 6th place at Dwar Doors Vlaanderen. Naesen also finished in top ten at Omloop Het Nieuswblad (7th) and K-B-K (8th). This shows he has the ability to feature at the end of these tough races. The worry is whether he has enough quickness to beat the likes of some of those mentioned above in a sprint from a small group? I’m not sure and 26.0 is a little to short for me.
E3 Prijs Vlaanderen – Tips
Again only one bookmaker has odds at the time of posting. If you wait and shop around you might find better odds for some of these riders.
Bet on Zdenek Stybar to win E3 Prijs Vlaanderen with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 17.0 with Paddy Power.
Back Alexander Kristoff to win E3 Prijs Vlaanderen with a 0.75/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 19.0 with Paddy Power.
Bet on Teisj Benoot to win E3 Prijs Vlaanderen with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 23.0 with Paddy Power.
Back Luke Rowe to win E3 Prijs Vlaanderen with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 23.0 with Paddy Power.
Bet here:
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