Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 21 is the final day of racing in this fascinating race. Unusually, the final stage is an Individual Time Trial (ITT) with a number of riders in contention for the overall race win.
Thank you Thibaut Pinot for bringing me another stage win – my 7th in the race. That’s the first time in the last 18 months that Pinot has won when I’ve tipped him.
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 21 – Stage Profile
Stage 21 looks like an incredible stage in the fight for the Maglia Rosa. The stage is an ITT of 29.kms. This is the 2nd ITT of the race but is 10kms shorter than the first.
In stage 10 Tom Dumoulin beat everyone else with ease. In relation to the other 4 riders in the Maglia Rosa chase he beat Quintana by 2 minutes 53 seconds; Nibali by 2 minutes 7 seconds; Pinot by 2 minutes 42 seconds; and Zakarin by 2 minutes 19 seconds. Of the four only Zakarin produced a result that was better than expected. Those are massive gaps and would translate to about 90-120 seconds on this shorter course.
With relation to the stage itself – this is an easy ITT. It is essentially flat/gradual downhill for the duration of the course. Dumoulin should win especially with Pink as the ultimate prize.
The rider wearing the Maglia Rosa on Saturday night does gain an advantage on Sunday. They will go off last and have the times of all of their rivals from which to gauge their own efforts.
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 21 – The Favourites
I can only include three riders in this section as barring incidents or ‘miracles’, only they can win stage 21.
Tom Dumoulin (Sunweb) – the best flat ITT rider in the world right now. Dumoulin has looked tired in the last couple of stages. However, in a one-off flat-out effort with a maiden Grand Tour win on the line has double motivation for stage 21 success. He needs to produce as close to his best as possible on Sunday – that will win the ITT and probably the race. Even at 1.72 this is a safe bet for a stage win.
Bob Jungels (Quick Step-Floors) was one of two riders to get inside a minute of Dumoulin’s time in the first ITT. Jungels is battling for the Young Riders jersey with Adam Yates. He will want to use his superior ITT skills on Sunday to win the classification. Jungels is 3rd favourite at 7.00 = great for the EW bet.
Vasil Kiriyenka (Team Sky) fell somewhat embarrasingly inside the final 400 metres in the stage 10 ITT. He lost about 30 seconds righting himself and getting back up top speed and finished 5th at 2 minutes. One thing in his favour – he has not been involved in any breaks or jersey battles. He might have the freshest legs of the ITT specialists. I don’t think he beats Dumoulin and at 3.25 there is no EW value in backing him sadly.
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 21 – Outsider
Luis Leon Sanchez (Astana) – 4th in the first ITT of the Giro on stage 10. Was an incredible 100 seconds slower than Dumoulin. However, he rode with the main part of the peloton on Saturday so may have a little enrgy for the final stage. He can be backed at 17.0 but will he be able to crack the top 3 – I would be stunned.
Jos Van Emden (Lotto-NL Jumbo) – 7th in the stage 10 ITT. His best results in ITT come on these pure power type courses. I can see why he is at 8.0 but I have no desire to back him.
Maglia Rosa Battle
I don’t think the other Maglia Rosa contenders have a chance of winning the stage so I’m not putting their odds in. I do feel the final day is fascinating however and here are my thoughts.
The current GC Standings:
- Quintana (leads);
- Nibali – at 39 seconds;
- Pinot – at 43 seconds;
- Dumoulin – at 53 seconds;
- Zakarin – at 1 minute 15 seconds.
The weather forecast for Milan on Sunday = 29C and little to no wind.
Wind was a big factor in the first ITT of the race – it won’t be on Sunday.
Vincenzo Nibali (Bahrain-Merida) was 6th in the first ITT and probably needs to better that on Sunday to have any chance of winning the Maglia Rosa. I think he will beat Quintana again but I’m not 100% sure he can beat him by 40 seconds.
Nairo Quintana (Movistar) was awful in the first ITT finishing way down in 23rd place. As a smaller lightweight rider the flat ITTs are bad matches. He will lose time to the other GC contenders on Sunday – the question is how much time. Could very well drop to 3rd or 4th overall if he replicates his first ITT performance.
Thibaut Pinot (FDJ) was also way below par on stage 10. I thought he would podium in that ITT but he came in 19th on the day. Pinot has beaten Dumoulin in an ITT in the last couple of years but that was only once. Pinot needs to be a lot better on stage 21. Close to Nibali on GC and has the chance to leap as high as 2nd overall if he approaches his best ITT form. To me Pinot looks like he is riding the best of the top 5 on the GC. The stage win on Saturday has pushed him to 3rd on GC.
Ilnur Zakarin (Katusha) was a creditable 12th in the first ITT. He has far too much time to make up to stand any chance of winning the Giro. Zakarin needed to be at least a minute in front of Dumoulin and he is currently behind him. 5th overall looks most likely for Zakarin.
I think the GC will end on Sunday as:
- Dumoulin
- Quintana
- Pinot
- Nibali
- Zakarin
The top 4 will all be within a minute of each other and 1st-4th within 30 seconds or so. From a betting perspective I want Quintana to win as he was my pre-race selection. I would be very happy for Dumoulin to win – he has been the most impressive rider to me and would still lead were it not for the toilet stop.
My only wishes for tomorrow. None of the GC riders have any issues with mechanicals or crashes and Nibali doesn’t win the race – he is one of the few sports people in the world that I cannot stand.
The odds for overall winner are now win only. Dumoulin is 1.22, Quintana is 8.50, Pinot 13.0, Nibali 17.0 and Zakarin 126.0. Of these the only real value is Quintana at 8.50. Any slips on the course by Dumoulin and a small bet on Nairo could pay off. Not for me however.
Young Riders Jersey Fight
This is now a two-man battle between Adam Yates (Orica-Scott) and Bob Jungels (Quick Step-Floors). Yates leads Jungels by 28 seconds but Jungels was 3rd in the first ITT 1 minute 40 seconds in front of Yates. Back Jungels to overturn this time deficit and win the White Jersey. Jungels is at 1.12 to win the Young Rider Classification = zero value.
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 21 – Tips
Back Tom Dumoulin to win stage 21 with a 4.0/10 stake at 1.72 with Bet365.
Bet here:
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