Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 5 takes place on Wednesday 10th May. It should be an easier day for the riders after the mountain top finish on Etna on Tuesday. Stage 5 looks like a classic bunch-sprint sort of day.
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 5 – The Profile
The 5th stage starts in the mountains and ends on the flat. A role reversal from Tuesday’s stage.
The day starts in Pedara and ends after 159kms racing in the town of Messina.
The first 98kms of the stage are lumpy but surprisingly only feature one categorised climb at 38kms. This is only a category 4 climb as well so there is not a lot of offer for the KOTM riders.
The final 60kms of the stage is are as flat as Dutch roads. This has all the hallmarks of another sprint finish. There will be a break in the early part of the stage but they stand little chance of success with that final flat run to the finish.
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Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 5 – Favourites
We’ve yet to see the big three go for it in head-to-head-to-head. They came close on stage 2 but Ewan and Gaviria bumped knocking Ewan out of contention. I hope we manage to get a classic showdown on stage 5 with all 3 getting clear runs to the line.
Fernando Gaviria (Quick-Step Floors) broke his Grand Tour duck on stage 4. He easily won the sprint after his team broke the peloton in cross winds in the run to the finish. In the earlier sprints, Gaviria, had been poor with a best placing of 4th. We know sprinting is a confidence game – the win and the award of the Maglia Rosa are bound to make Gaviria feel like superman. Best early odds are 3.50.
Andre Greipel (Lotto-Soudal) won the bunch sprint on stage 2 but his two main rivals were hampered in the finale through contact. It looked like Greipel had made the Quick-Step powered break on stage 3 but he touched Nizzolo and lost his momentum and place in the front group. He was beaten in the sprint by Ewan for minor places about 15 seconds behind the front group. Identical odds as Gaviria at 3.50.
Caleb Ewan (Orica-Scott) looked the quickest of the quick men on stage 1 grabbing a runner-up position. On stage two he lost all chance of a win when he bumped with Gaviria and lost all momentum. Then on the third stage he missed the split but won the minor sprint – beating Greipel. Of the three I just favour Ewan – he just needs a little luck. Lo and behold Ewan too can be backed at 3.50!
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 5 – Outsiders
The sprint outsiders group includes a number of duo’s from different teams. I don’t think they have a real chance of the win unless the sprint gets messy.
Giacomo Nizzolo (Trek-Segafredo) finished 3rd on stage 3 after making it into the front group in the cross winds. He was however very easily beaten into 3rd in the sprint finishing some distance behind Gaviria. Odds of 19.0 don;t tempt.
Jasper Stuyven (Trek-Segafredo) took advantage of the Gaviria/Ewan issue on stage 2 to grab a super 3rd place. Sadly, that may the high point for his sprint performances in this race. He has shown quickness but even so he appears to be at a level below the big three. Odds as high as 51.0 reflect my thoughts.
Roberto Ferrari (UAE Team Emirates) grabbed a surprise 2nd place on stage 2. He used his experience to navigate his way through the bunch to finish closest to Greipel. Again, like Stuyven I have some doubts that he will be able to replicate that performance. The bookies have him priced at 67.0 – a real outsider.
Sacha Modolo (UAE Team Emirates) had his best finish on stage 1 when he was 5th. Although he missed the front split on Sunday’s stage he did manage to finish in 9th place – or second in the minor sprint behind Ewan. He beat Greipel into 10th and that may be a sign that he has the best chance to split the top 3 in stage 5 and beyond. Modolo looks like the value play at 19.0.
Nathan Haas (Dimension Data) looks to be a better prospect for some of the hilly stages that will appear in the second week of the race. He will climb better than the other sprinters and can then use his speed to be a stage winning threat. The bookies have him as high as 101.0. Save your money for a later stage.
Kristian Sbaragli (Dimension Data) looks destined to be in the hunt for the Sprint Jersey classification come stage 21. He doesn’t have the speed to win a stage against the big three however and odds in the 34.0-41.0 support me.
Sam Bennett (Bora-Hansgrohe) was my dark horse to challenge for a stage win in this years race. Illness on day two has hampered his chances. Weirdly he is as low as 16.0 with one bookie and 34.0 with another. That indicates uncertainty to his physical condition. Avoid.
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 5 – Tips
Bet on Caleb Ewan to win stage 5 with a 2.0/10 stake at 3.50 with Paddy Power.
Back Sacha Modolo to win stage 5 with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 19.0 with Paddy Power.
Bet here:
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