Giro d’Italia Stage 13 is the first proper mountain stage with multiple tough climbs in this years race. I’m looking forward to stage 13 as we will finally see how good the form of the top riders is in a tough test of their fitness.
The Route
Stage 13 starts in Palmanova and finishes 170kms later in Cividale del Friuli. In between there are four mountain climbs. The first is the category 1 Montemaggiore (the high point of the day) which si peaked at 57.5kms. The days break will be clear by this point. I expect the breakaway will contain the leaders in the mountains classification – Cunego, Pirazzi and Wellens. They may not be going for stage victory but will aim to collect as many mountain classification points as possible before the GC contenders launch their attacks later in the stage.
From the Montemaggiore there is a rapid descent followed by the steep climb of the category 2 climb to Crai (81kms). A longer downhill takes the riders into a valley section where the gap to the breakaway will start to be eroded.
The 14km climb of the second category 1 – Cima Porzus starts at around the 124kms point. The GC teams of Movistar and Astana will try to put the hurt on the rest of the GC riders from here to the end of the stage. Once the Cima Prozus is climbed the road drops sharply for 10km and heads straight into the final climb of the day.
It is on this mountain – the 7km category climb in Valle, that the GC riders will make their move. The top of the Valle climb is 14 kms from the end of the stage. There is a quick drop down to the valley and then 7kms of flat. Expect a similar stage finish to that of stage 11 where Diego Ulissi won from a small late breakaway.
There is a strong chance that the leaders jersey will change shoulders following Stage 13.
The GC riders who will contend for victory.
This is where the Giro gets serious. There will be feints and attacks, probably on the Cima Porzus from the Movistar duo Carlos Betancur and Giovani Visconti and from the Astana riders Tanel Kangert and Jakob Fuglsang. The aim being for Movistar to try to isolate Vincenzo Nibali or Astana to force Alejandro Valverde to use energy chasing their riders. A real game of cat and mouse!
As it stands Vincenzo Nibali is within just over a minute of the lead but we have little idea of his form is in the higher mountains. Valverde, at least has looked to attack in the early mountain stages so we can be more sure of his fitness (and aggressive riding style).
I do have some doubts about Nibali. I have followed cycling for a long time and whilst he was the worthy winner of all three Grand Tours, he is not quite in the absolute elite level of climbers like Froome, Contador and Quintana. My gut feeling and it is a brave call, is that over the next three days he will lose a little time on some of the riders around him in the GC. He may remain in contention on stage 13 but drop a little the following day.
Valverde is favourite for stage 13 at 10.0 – but the top riders are closely bunched with the bookmakers. On paper this is a perfect Valverde stage, like stage 11 where I backed him. He missed the late attack by Bob Jungels, Amador and Ulissi then as he was marking Nibali. This could very well be repeated into Cividale del Friuli.
There also remains a question within his team as to who the best Movistar rider is. Amador has looked impresive thus far and attacked regularly. Is this team tactics or does Amador feel he is the better rider? As he is so close to Pink I think he will try and distance Jungels tomorrow – he is a really solid EW choice at 23.0.
Diego Ulissi has to be considered a great EW choice here. He has two wins already including two days ago and is a strong sprinter from a small group of riders. My one concern is can he get over four big climbs with the front group? I fear he may struggle a little if Movistar make a real race of it on the slopes of the Cima Porzus.
I hope Ilnur Zakarin will start to move up in the GC in the next 3 stages. His successes so far this season have been in the higher mountains. Stage 14 might suit him more as the climbs are steeper and higher – I can see a solo escapee winning into Corvara. His price for stage 13 is currently 34.0 – a really good EW price as he has the climbing ability to distance his rivals before the descent to the finish line.
Esteban Chaves is the same price as Zakarin. He can live with any rider in the mountain stages and might make a move tomorrow. He will probably lose some time on the mountain ITT on Sunday (stage 15) so could well attack in this stage to mitigate time losses on Sunday. The time bonuses would be a help too!
Giro d’Italia Stage 13 Bets
Back Andrey Amador to win stage 13 with a 0.5/10 Stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 23.0 with Betfair.
Back Esteban Chaves to win stage 13 with a 0.5/10 Stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 34.0 with Betfair.
Back Ilnur Zakarin to win stage 13 with a 0.5/10 Stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 34.0 with Betfair.
Back them here:
