La Flèche Wallonne is the second of the 3 Ardennes Classics races taking place on Wednesday 19th April, 2017. The 2017 version is the 81st edition of La Flèche Wallonne.
La Flèche Wallonne 2017 – The Course
La Flèche Wallonne is 199.5kms in length featuring a hilly course. The race begins in Charleroi and heads east towards Huy. The second half of the race features three 29km circuits around and including the fabled Mur du Huy climb.
The ‘Wall of Huy’ is frankly a nasty, evil climb and must be tackled three times. It is fairly short but features sections with a gradient of 26%. The average gradient for the climb is a staggering 19%. In recent years the race has always been decided on the final ascent of the Mur du Huy with the finish line at it’s summit. The teams of the main contenders have been very succesful in keeping the race together for the finale. I see little reason to believe there will be any changes in the 2017 race.
La Flèche Wallonne 2017 – Recent History
The winners of the last five editions of the La Flèche Wallonne were:
- 2011 – Philippe Gilbert (BEL) – Omega Pharma-Lotto
- 2012 – Joaquim Rodriguez (ESP) – Team Katusha
- 2013 – Daniel Moreno (ESP) – Team Katusha
- 2014 – Alejandro Valverde (ESP) – Movistar
- 2015 – Alejandro Valverde (ESP) – Movistar
- 2016 – Alejandro Valverde (ESP) – Movistar
Valverde has a record 4 wins in the event. In all honesty I’m surprised he hasn’t won this on more occasions. If ever a race and rider were perfectly suited it is Valverde and this race.
La Flèche Wallonne 2017 – The Clear Favourite
Barring accidents I cannot see anyone other than Alejandro Valverde (Movistar) winning La Flèche Wallonne for a 5th time and fourth year in a a row. Valverde is the undisputed master of this type of race finish. He excels on the steep climbs like the Mur du Huy and seems to have an extra gear that no other rider possesses. In 2017, you could make the case that Valverde has the best set of results of career up to this point in the season. Valverde has 6 race wins and has won 3 multi-stage races in Spain that featured the worlds best riders. Of course there is a downside to this dominance – his odds. They are quite frankly ridiculously low at 1.66-1.75. Those are win only big stake odds.
I was expecting to have two riders in this section. I felt Julian Alaphilippe (Quick-Step Floors), the runner-up here in 2015 & 2016, had shown enough in 2017 to be considered as a serious winner. Sadly, Alaphilippe picked up an injury in the lead-up to the Ardennes Classics and will miss all three races.
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La Flèche Wallonne 2017 – The Podium Chasers
Dan Martin (Quick-Step Floors) has finished 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th in this race in his career. In the absence of team-mate Alaphilippe he is second favourite for the win at odds in the region of 6.0-7.0. Martin has had a fairly low-key 2017 so far but showed his ability with a 3rd overall in Paris-Nice. Martin is an explosive puncheur – exactly the qualities needed for this race.
Philippe Gilbert (Quick-Step Floors) won La Flèche Wallonne in 2011 – the year he won all 3 Ardennes Classics races. Gilbert has been back to his brilliant best in 2017 with a win in the Tour of Flanders and runner-up spots at Dwars door Vlaanderen and E3 Prijs Vlaanderen. My concern is that Gilbert has evolved somewhat into a slightly diferent rider now. In 2011 he had true explosive speed on climbs – now he is more a pue classics rider with less explosivity. I don’t think he has the speed to beat Valverde if it comes to a pure shootout on the Huy. His best chance would be to split the race apart and distance the Spaniard. Odds of 13.0 do hold EW value.
NOTE – Gilbert pulled out of the remaining Ardennes Classics with injury after my preview went live.
Michal Kwiatkowski (Team Sky) is my preferred rider from the Sky Team. His best result in this race was 3rd in 2014. His 2017 race wins at Strade-Bianche and Milan-San Remo allowed him to show his explosive climbing ability. Odds as high as 19.0 look incredible as an EW selection. Kwiatkowski is a rider in top form and I predict this to continue here.
Sergio Henao (Team Sky) is favoured over Kwiatkowski by the bookmakers at around 9.0-11.0. Henao’s best results at La Flèche Wallonne were 2nd (2013) and 7th (2015). The best result of his career came this season with victory at Paris-Nice. Henao can climb and can be explosive but he doesn’t have a consistent set of results in Classic’s races. Not for me but there is one omen for him – his best results here come in odd numbered years!
La Flèche Wallonne 2017 – Outsiders
Daniel Moreno (Movistar) has won this race (2013) and finished in the top 10 on 3 other occasions including 5th in 2015. I feel he is here as support for team leader Valverde. Moreno has no results of note in 2017 and I feel odds of 23.0 are on the light side.
Diego Ulissi (UAE Team Emirates) was 8th in 2016 and had a 9th place here in 2012. Ulissi can climb and is a light explosive type. I feel he might be better suited from a gambling perspective as Giro d’Italia stage winner in 2017. He should have more leeway in that race than here. Odds of 51.0 look ok but he is not one for me here.
Enrico Gasparotto (Bahrain-Merida) was 5th in the 2016 race and has two other top 10’s including 3rd in 2012. In the absence of Alaphilippe I like his chances of possibly nicking a podium slot. He too has odds of 51.0 but this time I’m a little warmer for an EW bet.
The tricky choice of which Yates brother to choose when both are riding rears its ugly head here. Adam and Simon Yates (Orica-Scott) both have the skills to podium in this race. They have similar odds with Simon at 29.0 and Adam at 33.0. Adam has better results in his career including a San Sebastian Classic win. I feel their futures will include wins of races like this but not yet. I can see both in the top 10 but not on the podium.
Rui Costa (UAE Team Emirates) is a better option for Liege-Bastogne-Liege the following Sunday. That race has more climbs but at lower average gradients = suited to Costa’s riding style.
Alexis Vuillermoz (AG2R) is the only other rider that I can put in this group. In the 2015 race he managed a 6th place finish here – the best Classics result of his career thus far. Like the last 3 riders mentioned in this preview I feel he is looking at the top 10 rather than the podium. Not for me and 23.0 looks way too short.
La Flèche Wallonne 2017 – Tips
WON – Back Alejandro Valverde to win La Flèche Wallonne with a 4.0/10 stake at 1.75 with BWin.
Bet here:
PLACED – Bet on Dan Martin to win La Flèche Wallonne with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 6.0 with Bet365.
Back him here:
Back Michal Kwiatkowski to win La Flèche Wallonne with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 4) at 15.0 with SkyBet.
Bet here:
Bet on Enrico Gasparotto to win La Flèche Wallonne with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 51.0 with Paddy Power.
Back both here:
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