The 7th stage of Paris-Nice 2017 is the ‘queen’ stage. It features a brutal final climb that takes the riders to the highest point ever in the history of this great race. This will be a GC battle!
After a number of places (on 4 stages) I finally bagged a stage winner yesterday at 22/1. Thank you Simon Yates!
Paris-Nice 2017 Stage 7 – The Route
Stage 7 is a bit of a brute. The stage begins in Nice and finishes on the Col de la Couillole some 177kms later.
There are three first category climbs and a category 2 along the route. The stage starts in Nice and climbs onto the Cote de Gattieres after a couple of kms. This is a category 2 climb of 4.5kms at 4.8%. A plateau leads the riders to the Col de Vence (category 1 – 9.7kms at 6.6%). The day’s break will definitely go away in this part of the course.
From the 35km point the roads gradually drop back close to sea level. The stage starts properly for the GC riders at 100kms. The next 77kms feature two category 1 climbs and a steep descent in between.
At 140kms the riders will have peaked the next category 1 climb – Col Saint-Martin – La Colmiane. The climb is 7.5kms at 7.2% – a proper alpine test. The GC riders that feel they can gain time on the race leader will use their teams here to try to pressure Quick-Step Floors. If they can reduce the number of riders supporting Alaphilippe or drop him then their task on the final climb will be a little easier.
The Col de la Couillole is 15.7kms in length at 7.1%. An early attack on the climb could net huge time gains for the likes of a Contador or Zakarin. They have to attack early and often to claw back their time deficit on the race lead. We should be in for exciting viewing.
Paris-Nice 2017 Stage 7 – The Favourites
I feel the stage will be won by one of four riders. I will start with the three that have GC hopes.
Alberto Contador (Trek Segafredo) is the biggest name in the field. He is third favourite for the stage win on Saturday at 5.50. Contador is not the rider he was 3 years ago but he can still be dangerous on a climb like the Cote de Gattieres. He struggled on the final climb on Friday but that was expected. I think he is well in the mix for the top three places on Saturday.
Ilnur Zakarin (Katusha) was one of my tips to win the race. Zakarin’s strength is the high mountains. He needs to make up a lot of time on Alaphilippe and Henao. You can back him at 8.0-9.0 for the stage win on Saturday. Of the top four he is the only one with real EW value.
Sergio Henao (Team Sky) is the closest realistic threat to Alaphilippe’s lead in the race. He was excellent in Fayence, surprising me. I haven’t seen him ride that well for a number of seasons. He is yet to win a race with the pedigree of Paris-Nice but he has a chance now. Can he match Contador and Zakarin is the big question (to borrow a phrase from Sean Kelly)? I have some reservations and am slightly surprised that he second favourite at 4.33.
Richie Porte (BMC Racing) was red-hot favourite to win Paris-Nice but that fell apart early in the race. Now all he has to fight for are stage wins. He is the best climber in the race and I think he is correctly installed as stage favourite at 3.75. Porte just has another gear in the high mountains that only a few other riders possess (Froome and Quintana). Porte will make his team proud on Saturday.
Paris-Nice 2017 Stage 7 – The outsiders
Julian Alaphilippe (Quick-Step Floors) finally showed some signs of being in difficulty on stage 6. He was blowing a lot in the final 20kms and was dropped by Henao on the climb into Fayence. Alaphilippe was expected to blast by his GC rivals on the Fayence climb so there is some concern about stage 7. In last years Tour de France, Alaphilippe started well but once the race hit the high mountains he lost a lot of time. I have a suspicion that will be repeated on Saturday. The brave can back him at 19.0-23.0
Dan Martin (Quick-Step Floors) paced his team-mate Alaphilippe up the final climb on Friday. He has a better record in the high mountains so he may be allowed to challenge for the stage on Saturday. Martin has never really matched the likes of Contador on climbs such as the Cote de Gattieres. I have a hard time backing him here even EW at 15.0-19.0.
Simon Yates (Orica-Scott) was brilliant in stage 6 – soloing away from the front of the lead group and winning in Fayence. The time gains have helped elevate him into 8th on GC and into contention for the podium places. I would like to see him contend again on Saturday but think he might struggle a little in the final 2-3kms. There is EW value at 19.0.
Tony Gallopin (Lotto Soudal) is second overall at 36 seconds. He has been strong in this race but he doesn’t climb as well in the high mountains as in the shorter climbs. I feel he could be the big loser in the top 10 of the GC on Saturday. Odds of 51.0 look too short to me.
Gorka Izaguirre (Movistar) is 4th on GC under a minute off the race lead. He is a fine rider but I always felt his brother was the better climber. I think he will be dropped on the final climb and lose 4 or 5 places on the GC. The bookmakers echo my thoughts with odds of 151.0.
Jon Izaguirre (Bahrain Merida) could go in the opposite direction to his brother and gain two or three places on the GC. He is a strong climber with mountain Grand Tour stage wins. He is too far off the race lead to challenge for the victory but could be a nice EW bet at 41.0-51.0 for Saturday.
Paris-Nice 2017 Stage 7 – Tips
WON – Back Richie Porte to win stage 7 with a 2.5/10 stake at 3.75 with Paddy Power.
Bet on Ilnur Zakarin to win stage 7 with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 9.0 with Paddy Power.
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