Tour de France 2017 Stage 2 takes place on Sunday 2nd July. The profile suggests this will be the first of as many as nine bunch sprint finishes in the race.
I’m not keen on posting a stage 2 betting preview prior to the start of stage 1. This race is different – the 1st stage of the race is an easy short ITT that is not technical. This won’t tax the sprinters energy wise and I feel will have little impact on the outcome of stage 2. Also the weather for Sunday afternoon is decent with only the slight possibility of showers. This has classic bunch sprint written all over it.
Tour de France 2017 Stage 2 – The Profile
Stage two sees the riders start in Germany and finish in Belgium. The stage is 203.5kms in length taking the riders from Dusseldorf to Liege.
As we can see in the profile the stage is relatively flat throughout. The first 142.5kms feature only one or two small bumps. This section will definitely interest those riders looking to form a breakaway. Look for riders from the wildcard teams and some of those that like to feature in Grand Tour breaks to be present.
Between the 142.5-183km points the roads do become a little more interesting. There are a couple of unclassified climbs and then the only classified climb of the day at 183kms – the Cote d’Olne (Category 4). Look for the break to be reeled in around this point as the sprinters teams control the front of the race and prepare for a bunch sprint in Liege.
The final 20kms of the stage are flat – look for a brutally fast peloton bearing down on Liege. The initial bunch sprint of a Grand Tour can be a messy affair – will we get a surprise winner?
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Tour de France 2017 Stage 2 – Favourites
The early betting market is incredible – only three riders with odds below 9.0! I’m going to put the big names in this section – even if some of them feature a little further down the betting market. Experience counts for a lot in the Tour de France!
Marcel Kittel (Quick Step-Floors) will be looking for his 10th TDF stage win on Sunday. Kittel is the clear favourite to win at 2.10. This is based on his results so far this year – 8 wins and an overall race win (Tour of Dubai). Kittel also has the best lead out train in the peloton to call on. He has shown elite speed in 2017 and I have no issue with him being favoured to win.
Arnaud Demare (FDJ) is getting better and better. He won the French Road Race Championship last weekend by easily beating Nacer Bouhanni in the sprint finish. That goes well with 7 other wins – including a stage at Paris-Nice and the recent Dauphine. In the latter Demare also took the Sprint Classification overall. The big question – can he beat Kittel, Sagan et al in a Tour sprint? I’m not sure yet but you can get some EW value at 5.50.
Peter Sagan (Bora-Hansgrohe) is the overwhelming favourite for the Green Jersey come Paris. Sagan won 3 stages last year and will be looking to match that here. Stage one may not quite be right for him win as it’s a little too flat and straight-forward. I like him on some of the hilly stages that follow and the sprints that rise to the line. Still with the uncertain form of a couple of his sprint rivals Sagan at 9.0 has excellent EW value.
Andre Greipel (Lotto Soudal) can be backed as high as 10.0. Us regular cycling fans know that Greipel wins a stage in every Grand Tour he starts (this goes back to the 2008 TDF). He recently win a stage at the Giro but that stage apart Greipel was not really close to winning a second stage. The quality and depth of sprinters is greater here than at the Giro so I have a few reservations. Greipel is 9.0 so there is EW value.
Mark Cavendish (Dimension Data) is the sprint king in terms of stage wins with 30. Last year he won more stages than anyone else with 4. This season he has been struck down by poor form and illness (glandular fever). There are no real results to look at to judge his form coming here. This makes it tough to back Cav. I would like to see him contest a sprint before I consider backing him. Odds of 9.0 attest to his history at the race but not to his form.
Tour de France 2017 Stage 2 – Outsiders
Dylan Groenewegen (Lotto NL-Jumbo) is surprisingly 3rd favourite for the stage win around 7.0. He has 5 wins on the season – the best probably being the two in the Tour of Norway. None of the wins were against the big 5 above however. I just don’t understand how he is 3rd favourite. He is quick but a top 5 would be an amazing result in Liege.
Nacer Bouhanni (Cofidis) is too unstable to back. Look at last weekends French Road Race Championship as proof. Bouhanni was perfectly placed to challenge Arnuad Demare in the sprint but he messed it up and blamed it on Demare moving in the sprint. Like the Eurosport commentary team say – if everything is not 100% perfect then Bouhanni has no chance and he will blame everyone but himself. Unbackable even at 17.0
Alexander Kristoff (Katusha) has more wins than I thought he had so far in 2017 with 6. He hasn’t seemed to feature in the bigger races at the pointy end. His wins have mostly been in lets call them slightly lesser races i.e. not at world level. The best probably being 3rd overall at Three Days of Panne. I don’t think Kristoff has the pure speed anymore to win a bunch sprint in this company. Odds of 23.0 look right.
Sonny Colbrelli (Bahrain Merida) is 12th favourite for the stage win at 67.0. I think he is better than that! Colbrelli is a rider that I feel is under-rated. He won a sprint at Paris-Nice onstage 2 and also won De Brabantse Pijl earlier in the season. In the past he was a lead out rider for Sacha Modolo. Now I would back Colbrelli in a sprint with Modolo! Of all the odds attached to the sprinters in stage 2 – this is the one that stands out. He is worth a small EW flutter.
John Degenkolb (Trek-Segafredo) is not the rider of a few years ago. The training crash two years ago has really had a huge impact on him. His results have not been the same since and Degenkolb has lost the pure speed he once displayed. This puts him down the pecking order for Grand Tour bunch sprints – odds of 67.0 are not for me.
Tour de France 2017 Stage 2 – Tips
WON – Bet on Marcel Kittel to win stage 2 with a 2.5/10 stake at 2.10 with BWin.
Bet here:
Back Peter Sagan to win stage 2 with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 9.0 with Bet365.
Bet on Sonny Colbrelli to win stage 2 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 67.0 with Bet365.
Back them both here:
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