Vuelta a Espana Stage 12 on Thursday is another tough day for the riders with 4 categorised climbs. Those looking for a bunch sprint will be disappointed!
I have no idea what Tinkoff were thinking on stage 11. They chased the break down for no reason. Team leader Alberto Contador was never going to win that stage. Tinkoff should have saved their energies for stage 12 and attacked on the first ascent of the Alto El Vivero. As it was Contador lost more time on Quintana and Froome.
Vuelta a Espana Stage 12 – The Profile
Stage 12 is 193kms in length from Los Corrales de Buelna to Bilbao. This is the longest stage in the race thus far.
It features 4 categoriused climbs – spread at equidistances throughout the day. The first climb – the Pto. de las Alisas PM comes at 40kms and is a category 1. The climb is 10kms at 6% and is the ideal launching point for the break.
A 10 km descent from the summit takes the riders to a valley section for 20kms. Then they start the category 3 Alto La Escrita (6.4kms at 4.5%). The peak is close to the mid-point of the stage. The peloton should be working to stabilise the breaks advantage here. The next climb is 50kms further up the road.
The closing 40kms of the stage are the tough part. This features one category 2 climb that the riders will tackle twice. The first ascent of the Alto El Vivero comes at 147kms and the second at 176kms. The Alto El Vivero is 4.2kms in length at 8.5%. This is where the peloton will try to enable the catch on the break. The second ascent of the Alto El Vivero could also be a point for a GC battle. The stage actually finishes 12kms after the second ascent following a speedy descent. Can Chris Froome repeat his Tour de France escapology skills once more?
Buoyant in Bilbao
Stage 12 could very much be another ‘race within a race’. The break has a chance of success if it contains riders way down on GC.
I really like the non-GC riders in contention for the King of the Mountains jersey on stage 12. The category one climb comes first with 10 points for crossing the summit first. A break should then reach the Alto La Escrita and at least the first ascent of the Alto El Vivero before a possibly charging peloton catches them.
So the riders to look out for are Omar Fraile (17.0), Thomas de Gendt (34.0), Alexandre Geniez (51.0) and Luis Angel Mate (41.0). I think these are the four riders most keen on claiming the KOTM prize and they should be in the break on stage 12.
Joining them will be riders from the teams that have featured in earlier breaks. This includes Astana, Canondale, Katusha, Lotto-Jumbo-NL, Direct Energie and IAM Cycling. Riders such as Luis Leon Sanchez Gil (Astana), Ben King and Joe Dombrowski (Canondale), Alberto Losada and Sergey Lagutin(Katusha), Martin Keijzer (Lotto), Fabrice Jeandesbos (DE) and anyone from IAM!
Sanchez Gil at 12.0 looks like a decent EW selection. He can climb well from a smaller group and is an aggressive rider. We know Canondale will have riders in the break and one day they will get the stage win. Dombrowski at 101.0 and King at 151.0 have potential too. Dombrowski in particular can be a very good climber on his day.
If the GC teams decide to close down the break a smallish group will approach the line. The 15km descent and flat section before the line will favour the fast riders that can stick with the GC teams. The obvious selection for stage win would then be Alejandro Valverde (Movistar) or as an outside shot Fabio Felline (Trek). Both can be backed in the 11.0-13.0 range.
Felline has a second place finish already and been in breaks looking for the win. He has dropped 18 minutes on Quintana in GC so could even be part of the breakaway tomorrow. In which case you would have to fancy his chances of winning the stage in a small sprint.
Vuelta a Espana Stage 12 – Tips
Back Luis Leon Sanchez Gil to win stage 12 for a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 12.0 with Skybet.
Bet on Omar Fraile to win stage 12 for a 0.75/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 17.0 with Skybet.
Back Benjamin King to win stage 12 for a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 151.0 with Skybet.
Bet here:
Bet on Fabio Felline to win stage 12 for a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 13.0 with Bet365.
Back Joe Dombrowski to win stage 12 for a 0.50/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 101.0 with Bet365.
Bet here:
