The Masters is very much looming large on the horizon but before Augusta National opens its gates to the world there is one more tournament on the PGA Tour which is the Valero Texas Open, the last chance for those not yet into the field next week to make it there.
That is exactly what J.J. Spaun did a year ago when he took down this tournament and snatched the golden ticket for the drive up Magnolia Lane. That will give inspiration to the field who are looking to stop a successful title defence from taking place.
Recent Winners
2022 – J.J. Spaun
2021 – Jordan Spieth
2019 – Corey Conners
2018 – Andrew Landry
2017 – Kevin Chappell
2016 – Charley Hoffman
2015 – Jimmy Walker
2014 – Steven Bowditch
2013 – Martin Laird
2012 – Ben Curtis
The Course
Once again the tournament takes place at TPC San Antonio this week. This is one of the tougher courses on the circuit when the wind blows which is interesting because next week at Augusta the players are going to be on a scoreable course. The wind is expected to be relevant for the opening two days of this event and storms are forecast in this part of the world too, which could make life even tougher for the players.
The track is a par 72 which measures 7,438 yards with some lengthy par 5s which even the longer hitters can’t reach. The trick to this place is hitting these large, undulating greens in regulation and then holing putts on them. This is becoming one of the biggest ball striker tracks on the PGA Tour. This isn’t going to be a shootout so the players who are proficient and accurate with the longer clubs are the ones most likely to contend.
The Field
As you would imagine after a very busy week at the WGC Match Play last week and the opening major coming along next week, the field for this tournament isn’t the strongest. At the time of writing just 11 men who are exempt into the field at The Masters will tee it up here which means that 133 players will all have the same aim – to win the tournament and claim the last place into the field at Augusta National.
Among those who are guaranteed to be in next week we have the likes of former Masters champion Hideki Matsuyama, Tyrrell Hatton and Chris Kirk. Among those who are not yet in the field next week but who will be keen to have a tee time are Rickie Fowler, the winner from the Puntacana Championship last week in Matt Wallace, Davis Riley, Taylor Montgomery and Matt Kuchar. We are in for a competitive week for sure.
Market Leaders
Tyrrell Hatton tees it up in this tournament for the first time this year and he will do so as the 12/1 favourite. He looked like he was struggling with a wrist issue ahead of his opening match at the WGC Match Play last week and although it didn’t look to be hampering him on the golf course it is probably no surprise he went 0-3 for the week. This close to Augusta if there is any issue over the course of this week you would imagine Hatton will pull out so while his comfort in the wind is a positive, there are enough reasons to leave him out of any staking plan.
Rickie Fowler is very much a player on the up once again but he needs to win this tournament if he is going to be competing at Augusta next week. He was a shade unfortunate to land in a horrible group at the Match Play last week but I think in the main he is playing well. The huge box he ticks is his comfort when the wind is blowing and that could really be of use this week but whether his ball striking is going to be quite precise enough remains to be seen. At 18/1 he is just a shade on the skinny side to me.
Si Woo Kim looked good in the early stages of the WGC Match Play but then fell apart in his final group match to undo all of his good work. He has gone T4-T23-T13 in the past three tournaments at the Texas Open so there is something about this part of San Antonio that he enjoys but his form coming into the week is a little up and down so there is certainly a case that he is a little short at 22/1 but this isn’t the greatest field in the world and it wouldn’t be a surprise were he to go well here.
There are a trio of players at 25/1 in Hideki Matsuyama, Corey Conners and Davis Riley. All three teed it up in Austin last week. Matsuyama pulled out of his final match through injury and that is an immediate concern as if he feels anything this week he isn’t going to take any chances with Augusta a week away. Conners won here in 2019 and has had a couple of decent spins since then so he certainly shouldn’t be ruled out with his ball striking ability. Ball striking is also a strength of Riley but he wasn’t really a factor on his only previous spin here.
Main Bets
Chris Kirk has already won at one place where ball striking was a pre-requisite when he took down The Honda Classic in fine style last month and I think he is worth following here too. Kirk has a couple of top 10 finishes in this tournament in the last four years it has taken place so this is clearly a part of the world he enjoys coming to. He wouldn’t have wanted to go out in the group stage of the WGC Match Play last week but if there is a blessing in disguise then it comes in the form of the fact he doesn’t arrive here too tired. Kirk sits just outside the top 30 in strokes gained from tee to green this season and with a number of those above him not here this week that seems significant. I’m always happy to be on winners at this time of year so Kirk will be my first main bet.
The other bet I like is the man who prevailed as the closest challenger to J.J. Spaun last year in Matt Kuchar. He wasn’t in the best shape with his game a year ago but he is performing a whole lot better this season. Kuchar has gone T7-T12-T2 in the last three starts here and was in the top 10 at the Genesis Invitational not too long ago. He went well at the Match Play last week but not well enough that all of his reserves will have run dry. He clearly loves San Antonio, is fine when the wind blows and is hitting the ball really well. I think he is another who I would expect to take a lot of beating this week.
Outsiders
There are three outsiders I like to take a chance on this week given that it is the only tournament going on. Akshay Bhatia was a main bet for me in the Dominican Republic last week and at the halfway mark I was glad he was but he didn’t get the job done however much of the same credentials I liked about him there are relevant here so I will have him as part of the staking plan once again. Nobody struck the ball better than him in that Corales Puntacana Championship last week and only six have done it better all season on the PGA Tour. He struggled on the greens last week but putting isn’t really a huge factor in the outcome of this tournament, or hasn’t been in the past. I don’t expect Bhatia to be as bad on the greens this week and if he isn’t then the quality of his ball striking should have him right in the mix.
Hayden Buckley only has three players above him on the PGA Tour in terms of ball striking this season. He doesn’t carry too much in the way of form this week given that he has missed the last four cuts but they were all in designated events with elite fields, unlike this one which is still a good level PGA Tour event but has left the likes of The Players, the Genesis and Bay Hill behind. Buckley has a couple of top five finishes on the season, one at the Zozo Championship and the other at the Sony Open and that second one feels relevant this week because the winds are in play there as they will be here. We are at the time of year where the form of those players below the elite can have a pinch of salt element to it so at a three figure price I’ll a chance on Buckley.
My final bet will be on Lucas Glover, another player who is known best for how he strikes the ball with the longer clubs over the shorter ones. Glover sits at 20 on the PGA Tour for fairways hit this season and in the top 10 at proximity to the hole so his long game is entitled to have him right in the mix, especially if he can get the putter to work on these big greens. While most will be putting from distance on these large surfaces, if Glover plays to his season average he will be putting from much closer in and as such is more likely to hole enough putts to contend. Glover has a good record here with T14-4-T18 in his last three starts at TPC San Antonio. There are signs that he is beginning to show some life. At The Players he opened with a 69 and then a 67 at the Valspar a couple of weeks ago. If he can build on that in a lesser field then there is no reason why he can’t be in the mix once again.
Tips
Back C.Kirk to win Valero Texas Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back M.Kuchar to win Valero Texas Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back H.Buckley to win Valero Texas Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back L.Glover to win Valero Texas Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back A.Bhatia to win Valero Texas Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2023
