Christmas weekend in the NFL is a busy period as it often is and it gets underway with a couple of matches on Saturday evening. The first of those has the AFC play-off picture in the spotlight when the Baltimore Ravens play host to the Indianapolis Colts.
The Colts are playing out time for their season although they might carry some extra motivation here returning to their former city but the Ravens have it all to play for as they chase a wildcard spot.
Baltimore Ravens
It had looked like the Ravens’ season was going nowhere but suddenly they have burst into life. They have won four out of their last five matches and have seriously caught fire on offense in that time. The defeat in that spell was a high scoring epic against the Pittsburgh Steelers but they showed last week that did not derail them.
The Ravens defence has often been one of the best in the league this season – they have nilled Green Bay and Miami over the course of the campaign and with the exception of that match in Pittsburgh they have generally been tight. Their offense has played its best stuff in the last three weeks so once again the Ravens could be coming good at the right time.
Indianapolis Colts
It has been a season to forget for the Indianapolis Colts and one which is almost certainly going to cost Chuck Pagano his job at the end of it. Their fans may point to a number of narrow defeats along the way and of course having Andrew Luck ruled out before it began basically ended their season before it started.
The problems occur in the number of yards they surrender which just tires out their defence and puts pressure on an offense that is not turning the ball over but is not scoring points either. The lack of a pass rush and troubled protection for the quarterback are not good things for this league in the current climate either.
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Betting
The handicap on the Baltimore Ravens here is 13pts which I can totally understand given the fortunes of these two sides but I hate taking handicaps of that size in primetime matches but at the same time I’m not sure I would want to back Indianapolis to remain within it.
One bet I do like is for the Ravens to put up more than 26.5pts in the match. Joe Flacco has produced his best three matches in his last three outings and with the Colts having no pass rush whatsoever and only 22 sacks for the season you would expect Flacco to have all the time he needs to find his receivers.
If that isn’t enough the Colts have shipped 14 rushing touchdowns this season and are the fourth worst run defence in the league so the likes of Alex Collins should enjoy themselves here. All things being equal the Ravens should pile up the points here.
Tips
Back Baltimore Ravens – Over 26.5pts for a 4/10 stake at 1.83 with Betfred
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