It is here! On Thursday The Open will begin with 156 of the leading golfers in the world gracing the links of Royal Birkdale to get the third major of the year underway. Each player teeing it up will be looking to get themselves into position for a tilt at the title over the weekend.
With this being a major championship the potential for betting is quite large. We have the first round leader market and each of the 52 three balls taking to the course priced up and as ever it would be rude not to indulge!
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First Round Leader
Unlike regular tour events which have two tee starts and everything is condensed players tee off in 11 minute intervals from 6.35am local time right through to 4.16pm. That brings the different weather conditions into play and allows us to whittle down some of the field to form a stronger chance of landing a punt.
It should be noted that there was a monster storm on Merseyside on Wednesday afternoon which has completely changed the dynamic of this course. Until the rain relents there won’t be as much run along the ground so the aerial route will need to be taken therefore the longer hitters who go out early could have an advantage. The wind is set level all day so those getting the softer conditions could benefit.
Thomas Pieters is probably the longest hitter out in the morning and that can be significant. He will be able to hit lesser clubs to others and keep his ball flight down out of the wind and if he can be pinpoint with the irons and his putter is hot he is more than capable of putting up a decent score.
Peter Uihlein went well in France recently and has gone well on links courses in the past at events like the Dunhill Links. With his best mate Brooks Koepka nailing the last major I’m sure the American is inspired to go well this week. He has the length on his side and if he can get off to a good start he can consolidate it with the par 5s and put up a score which may not be bettered.
Thursday 3 Balls
Usually I would go for the groups where there is an out of his depth qualifier or a past masters who is over the hill in a three ball that can eliminated into a two ball to make betting easier but there aren’t as many of those groups around in the draw this year so for three ball bets I’ve gone with value and tried to take on players with indifferent links records.
H.Matsuyama/T.Fleetwood/B.Koepka
Match tees off at 10.09 BST
Three major contenders in the US Open are out in one of the marquee groups in the morning as the winner of that tournament Brooks Koepka partners Hideki Matsuyama and Tommy Fleetwood in a match which is sure to have a big crowd with it.
I think the rain that has come down will suit Fleetwood and Koepka. They are longer than Matsuyama but given the difference in expectation between the two I am going to favour the American. I see no reason why Fleetwood won’t have a big week but he might need 12-18 holes to get into it. Koepka is largely freerolling having won the US Open and that freedom can see him to a group win here.
Michael Hendry/Brian Harman/Martin Laird
Match tees off at 12.31 BST
New Zealand golfer Michael Hendry joins PGA Tour stars Brian Harman and Martin Laird in the opening two rounds and it looks like a plum draw for the Wells Fargo winner and US Open runner-up.
This is the first major Hendry will have played in his career and it is hard to see him being too competitive as a result of that so I have this between the other two although if Laird’s warm up in Scotland last week was anything to go by then Harman may have something of a penalty kick here. He is good in the wind, hits plenty of greens and is a good putter. He should win this group.
Andy Sullivan/Joost Luiten/David Lipsky
Match tees off at 13.15 BST
European Tour trio Andy Sullivan, Joost Luiten and David Lipsky head off in one of the earlier groups in the afternoon each looking to go strong in the opening round but it is the Englishman I like here.
Sullivan has always got good support in England and has responded to it and having warmed up for this event with a perfect tilt in Scotland I fancy he will get off to a fast start here. Joost Luiten hasn’t offered a great deal on a links course for a while and Lipsky has to get over the shame of shooting 89 in the second round last week. He doesn’t enjoy links golf whereas Sullivan does and he looks a solid punt here.
Giwhan Kim/Xander Schauffele/Andrew Dodt
Match tees off at 15.43 BST
The relatively unknown Giwhan Kim goes out with the recent Greenbrier Classic winner Xander Schauffele and Australian player Andrew Dodt in one of the last groups onto the golf course.
Kim has little experience of this level to speak of so he is easy enough to pass over and while Schauffele won in West Virginia recently and went well in the US Open I fancy this could be a different thing for him entirely. Dodt warmed up for this by leading the Scottish Open through 54 holes in some pretty tough conditions and that tune up combined with his length becoming a factor should see him home in front in this group.
Tips
Back T.Pieters First Round Leader (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 67.00 with 888sport (1/4 1-6)
Back him here:
Back P.Uihlein First Round Leader (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Unibet (1/4 1-6)
Back him here:
WON – Back B.Koepka to beat H.Matsuyama & T.Fleetwood for a 3/10 stake at 3.25 with William Hill
Back him here:
Back B.Harman to beat M.Laird & M.Hendry for a 4/10 stake at 2.20 with Paddy Power
Back him here:
Back A.Sullivan to beat J.Luiten & D.Lipsky for a 4/10 stake at 2.38 with BetVictor
Back him here:
DEAD HEAT – Back A.Dodt to beat G.Kim & X.Schauffele for a 3/10 stake at 2.50 with Ladbrokes
Back him here:
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