After an 11 month slog we have reached the final day of the PGA Tour season where there is some massive money up for grabs and some top draw players playing for it in the final round of the Tour Championship.
Someone will win $10 million on Sunday and with the leading contenders at the beginning of the week looking a bit iffy we are set to witness two tournaments being played out in one on a fascinating final day of the campaign.
Saturday Recap
After a low scoring third round it is Paul Casey who is in line for the big bunce. He holds a two shot lead on 12 under par with Kevin Kisner and the rookie Zander Schauffele two back on 10 under. Those three have opened up something of a gap with nobody else within three of them.
Patrick Reed, Justin Thomas and Brooks Koepka form a strong looking group on seven under par while Jason Day and Jon Rahm are stalking any slip ups from the leading trio. They are on six under and right there if they get the help from above.
We had a winner and a loser on the day on Saturday with Matt Kuchar winning but Justin Thomas ran into a form horse in Casey. Hopefully we can end the season well on Sunday.
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Sunday Betting
There is nothing guaranteed on Sunday but the one thing we can be relatively certain of is that there is going to be nerves, tension and plenty of drama around. The three leaders all have their weaknesses heading into the final round and I’m not convinced either of them will win.
Casey hasn’t won on the PGA Tour for eight years while Kevin Kisner often goes too defensive when in sight of a title. Schauffele won the Greenbrier this season but this would be a massive step up on that so they all have something to prove, to themselves not just to us.
I think there could be some value on those doing the chasing and the one I like to be on is Justin Thomas. He didn’t have his best stuff with him on Saturday but we’ve seen a couple of times this season that if he can start off well he can go very low and win a tournament. He’ll need help for those above him but I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets it. At 14/1 with destiny in his own hands he looks the final round value.
Sunday 2 balls
As has been the case all week every group on the course has been priced up for this final round. The leading pairing is Paul Casey and Kevin Kisner who go out just before 7pm UK time but there are some cracking groups prior to that with the Jordan Spieth and Dustin Johnson match and Jason Day against Jon Rahm being of particular appeal golf wise. I like a different one betting wise though.
Gary Woodland vs Webb Simpson
Match tees off at 18.00 BST
We have a chalk and cheese pairing out relatively late in the day when Gary Woodland takes on the former US Open champion Webb Simpson and it is the former that I like to come through this match.
I say that because if he drives the ball well he can open this course right up and that is something that Simpson does not have in his repertoire. While Simpson is a straight hitter he isn’t long so if he is slightly wayward he will find it difficult to score on a course that has really firmed up.
Around the greens and on them these two are as weak as each other so the power in the driver of Woodland could be the thing that decides which of this two scores the lowest on the final day.
Tips
PLACED – Back J.Thomas to win Tour Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 15.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-3)
Back him here:
Back G.Woodland to beat W.Simpson for a 3/10 stake at 2.63 with Paddy Power
Back him here:
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