With Luton Town getting promoted last season our domestic English league coverage will focus on Sky Bet League One this season and we will begin our coverage of that division with a look at the outright betting market ahead of the campaign beginning on Saturday.
One team dominates both the focus in the division this season and the outright betting market and it will be interesting to see if Sunderland have it in them to bounce back at the first attempt. 23 other sides will be eager to stop them.
Recent Winners
2017/18 – Wigan Athletic
2016/17 – Sheffield United
2015/16 – Wigan Athletic
2014/15 – Bristol City
2013/14 – Wolverhampton Wanderers
2012/13 – Doncaster Rovers
2011/12 – Charlton Athletic
2010/11 – Brighton & Hove Albion
2009/10 – Norwich City
2008/19 – Leicester City
The Favourites
Relegated sides have a good record of bouncing back at the first opportunity. We saw that with all three teams who dropped into League 1 last season eventually going up and Sunderland are the 11/4 favourites to exit the division at the right end back to the Championship. It will be interesting to see how Sunderland go here. They are under new ownership and have a little known manager in England but they have retained a few members of their squad from their Premier League days and have signed well this summer. Clearly there is a need to turn around a losing mindset but their fans will probably flock back to the Stadium of Light if they pick up a few results early in the campaign and they are worthy favourites in my eyes although potentially unbackable ones at the price.
Fellow relegated side Barnsley are the second favourites to win the title. They have some wonderful young players that were signed by Paul Heckingbottom but whether they have the experience for a promotion challenge remains to be seen. I’m also a little concerned that they have a foreign manager. Generally they fail but than they succeed in the lower leagues in England and that is a big concern. Stats are on their side but at 17/2 they are not for me.
Charlton and Portsmouth share the 14/1 quotes as third favourites. I guess all eyes will be on Charlton to see if they have a hangover after failing in the play-offs last season. If they do that would not be good. Portsmouth established themselves in the division having been promoted the season before and you would think Kenny Jackett’s men will be primed for a serious tilt at the title now they have decent backing. Brett Pitman’s goals should keep them in the hunt and if they can stay tight at the back they shouldn’t be far away.
My own side Luton are the fifth favourites to win the title at 16/1. There is no doubting that the ambition is there and Town will hold their own in this league but whether they find one or two too good for them remains to be seen. Keeping everyone they wanted has been crucial this summer and there is no doubt the three new faces they have brought in have strengthened them. We’ll be there or thereabouts but my gut feeling is the price is about right.
Peterborough United are the same price as Luton at 16/1. They will need to cope with the loss of Jack Marriott and you get the feeling whether it is before the August window closes or if it is in January that someone will finally take a punt on Marcus Maddison. They will be big losses. Steve Evans cleared the decks at Mansfield last season and brought a load of players in and they never got going. That can’t happen here if Posh are to justify relative skinny quotes.
The Contenders
Going by the betting market, Scunthorpe United are next best at 20/1. They are another side who will need to get over the heartache of missing out in the play-offs last season. Nick Daws has been given the job permanently but with Ivan Toney back at Newcastle I sense a lack of depth in both boxes which would be a concern. Scunthorpe might travel well at times but over the course of 46 matches they’re not for me.
There are a trio of clubs at 25/1 who are Plymouth Argyle, Southend United and Bristol Rovers. After a disastrous start to their first campaign back in League 1 last term, Plymouth flew home from the clouds but missed out on a play-off spot late on. If they have improved they are entitled to be in the mix but Graham Carey is too much of a key man for my liking. Chris Powell has had time to work with his Southend squad and man for man they don’t look too bad. If he can get them all playing to their best there is no reason at all why they can’t still be interested in things come April and May. I respect the Gasheads but wonder where their goals will come from with Matty Taylor and Ellis Harrison at pastures new.
Best of the Rest
Oxford United go into the season with lofty ambitions and are 28/1 for the title. That might be beyond them but a solid season shouldn’t be. If Jamie Mackie finds his best form he could be a leading man in this league but Oxford look like a side who could make the play-offs at the very best.
Burton Albion were promoted from this division the last time they were in it and having had a couple of campaigns in the Championship I don’t think they should be written off at 28/1. Relegated sides have a good record in this division and I don’t think the demotion will have hurt them as much as some who have come into the league as they were probably honest enough to appreciate they were punching above their weight in the second tier. Their late bid for survival shows me that with a good start to this campaign they could be major players.
Coventry City were built on a wonderful defence last season and then in the second half of the campaign when they went on the attack they looked good for it and thoroughly deserved to win the play-offs. Key man Marc McNulty is elsewhere though which is a huge blow for them. A relatively young side will need everything to go their way if they are to launch a challenge.
There was doom and gloom around Bradford City when the summer began but as the season has drawn closer and a couple of signings have arrived their support appears to be feeling more optimistic about their chances. Hope Akpan, George Miller and Jack Payne look good signings but Charlie Wyke will be a big loss. The Bantams aren’t for me.
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Betting
I expect Sunderland to be the team to beat this season. Really and truly they should win this league with a fair bit in hand if they are managed right but football doesn’t always work like that though and even if it does I’m not tying my dough up for 10 months on an 11/4 shot. Of the other major contenders I don’t really like any of them per se although I’ve a feeling Jackett might get Portsmouth in the mix.
I’m going to open up my ante-post betting on a side in the middle of the market in the form of Burton Albion. Hitting the centre of the betting did me no harm with Accrington last season and I’ll take that approach again. Although they were relegated, Burton finished last season well and almost survived and that bodes well for a good start here. Liam Boyce represents a decent standard at this level and Nigel Clough knows what is needed having got Burton into position to be promoted from this league in the past. Relegated sides have a good record in this league and Burton are far too big to ignore for an outright opener at 28/1.
Tips
Back Burton Albion to win League 1 (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with Skybet (1/5 1-4)
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