The 2nd day of the 3 day Aintree meeting & the big race is the Topham over the Grand National fences. We’re taking 2 in that one & hoping to get on the scoreboard ahead of Saturday’s National. The rest of the card doesn’t appeal from a betting perspective.
4.05 Aintree: Topham Chase
Preview
30 runners, 2 miles 5 furlongs & the National fences. That’s what Aintree is all about & this race looks a cracker. With every runner trading at double figures or more, it looks as competitive as ever & we’re taking 2 against the field.
Betting
The first to have on side is Mystifiable. He looks to be well handicapped, having dropped back to his last winning mark, and has, importantly, shown a liking for the fences. He last won 12 months ago at Perth off this mark & has since run 3 good races in defeat, all of marks higher than this.
He ran a cracker in the Grand Sefton in December over these fences & was upsides 2 out before fading, probably due to the bottomless ground. Soft ground is fine but anything worse isn’t ideal so there was enough promise in that run to suggest a repeat is on the cards. That run also prompted his trainer to train him for this race & a big run is definitely in store.
On his last run, he ran 3rd at Newbury over an insufficient trip. That was purely to get a run into him before his season target & again he ran well enough to be optimistic here. The longer trip will suit & he should go close with a low racing weight, form over the fences & a prominent racing style which has proved important in past runnings of this.
Our 2nd bet is another big priced one in Shanahans Turn. Formerly high class having won the Galway Plate in 2015 when trained in Ireland, this is a speculative punt based on a reducing mark & a promising effort last time. It is also hoped that these fences can bring out the best in the horse.
Since moving to the excellent Tizzard yard, he’s only run twice, both time at Cheltenham. The first of those runs was off the back of an almost 500 day absence & he was going ok until clouting the last ditch. He faded thereafter & saw his mark reduce 4lbs for his next run. That came in the Plate at the Festival 4 weeks ago & he ran a race full of promise in finishing 9th off a mark 3lbs higher than today’s.
Usually a good jumper, he’s a typical Tizzard type that has been brought along slowly. Well handicapped, I fancy he’ll go well in this cavalry charge.
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Tips
Back Mystifiable (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 21.00 Boylesports BOG (⅕ odds 1-6)
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PLACED – Back Shanahans Turn (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 26.00 William Hill BOG (⅕ odds 1-5)
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