The Sky Bet League One season gets underway on Saturday and it could be one of the most exciting third tier campaigns at the top of the table that we have seen in quite some while. Last year it was all about the race to avoid the drop in this division but it is the top end which should be good.
Luton, Barnsley and Charlton Athletic have been replaced by Ipswich Town, Rotherham United and troubled Bolton Wanderers and with Portsmouth and Sunderland around in the league too we are in for some season.
Recent Winners
2018-19 – Luton Town
2017-18 – Wigan Athletic
2016-17 – Sheffield United
2015-16 – Wigan Athletic
2014-15 – Bristol City
2013-14 – Wolverhampton Wanderers
2012-13 – Doncaster Rovers
2011-12 – Charlton Athletic
2010-11 – Brighton & Hove Albion
2009-10 – Norwich City
Preview
After heartache in the play-offs last season both Sunderland and Portsmouth will be looking to go a few steps better this time around as they bid to regain their Championship places. Both teams have recruited accordingly and will be expected to challenge at the business end of the season. Another team who have significantly strengthened their stock is Peterborough United, whose attacking play under Darren Ferguson is likely to entertain the London Road crowd.
The three relegated sides will all want to go back up at the first opportunity and follow in the footsteps of Barnsley who achieved that aim last term. That will be difficult for Bolton Wanderers who begin with a 12 point deduction but for Ipswich Town and Rotherham United that will be the primary task at hand. There will be pressure on them to deliver the goods but both should be in the mix.
Other teams looking to gain promotion this season will be Doncaster Rovers under Darren Moore, Burton Albion for whom Nigel Clough should be a good man to lead them to good things, while League 2 champions Lincoln City bring the sort of surge in momentum with them that served Luton Town so well last season. Coventry City play at Birmingham this term but if that doesn’t inconvenience them too much they can challenge again.
At the other end of the table Bury might not even begin the season such is their plight but if they do they will be 12 points behind all bar Bolton and playing catch up in matches having had their first two fixtures cancelled. AFC Wimbledon and Southend United survived late on last season and need improvements to avoid being in another scrap while second season syndrome could hit Accrington Stanley and Wycombe Wanderers. Tranmere Rovers and MK Dons will be looking to survive in their first season back at this level.
Outright Betting
Sunderland are the favourites for the title once again but it is Portsmouth who have my eye this season. If you go back to Christmas last year they were setting a right old standard in this league and looked champions in waiting. Loan players went back to their clubs in January and by the time reinforcements arrived and bedded in Luton and Barnsley had stolen a march on them. I’m sure they will have learnt from that for this campaign and the signing of John Marquis is the real high profile one in the division. The loss of Matt Clarke is a blow it has to be said but Sean Raggett has good pedigree while Marcus Holness and Ryan Williams catch the eye as signings. Portsmouth don’t need to improve too much to be title contenders and on paper they have made the improvements. At 6/1 they are the pick to be champions.
I backed Burton Albion to win this league last season but their run to the Carabao Cup semi-finals took up much of their focus in the first half of the campaign but they beat some good sides at the Pirelli Stadium last season and look to have kept most of their important players and even strengthened in attacking areas with the signings of highly rated Oliver Sarkic and Nathan Broadhead. Nigel Clough knows this league well, Burton are a good home side and they should be featuring at the top end of this table this term assuming they don’t have another outstanding cup run.
Top Scorer
Given that all but one of the top five scorers from last season have left the division, there is an open feel to the top goalscorer market and then when you look at the odds and see it is 9/1 the field that is highlighted further. I’m not normally a backer of the favourite in these things but I can’t ignore that 9/1 on James Norwood. He has been a goal machine wherever he has been and I firmly expect him to keep that going after his move to Ipswich Town. I saw with my own eyes that someone can go from League 2 and top score in this division when James Collins did it last season and Norwood has many of the qualities the Ireland international has. Ipswich should be more than competitive this season and Norwood should be the man to fire them to wherever they end up.
I’m not sure how well or otherwise Bristol Rovers are going to go this season but I do know that Jonson Clarke-Harris is very much their main man and he could surprise the division at 25/1. Standout forwards in this league are few and far between so the former Coventry man should go well. He notched 16 goals last season and so he only needs to add a few to that tally this year to get involved in the mix. I know from speaking to people inside the club at Luton that he was a player who gave us a lot of problems last season. He’s a price worth supporting.
Promotion
As ever I like to have a go in the promotion market on a team who might not get in the title picture but who won’t have to do too much more to have every chance of getting promoted, or going close to doing so. You can make an obvious case for the likes of Peterborough, Rotherham and a couple of others and it is another side deeper in the market that could surprise.
Oxford United had a great second half of the campaign and look to have made some good signings ahead of the new season. I saw them on the final day of last season and for an hour they gave the champions a number of problems. They caught my eye when they signed Liverpool winger Ben Woodburn who will alleviate some of the loss of Marcus Browne and Gavin Whyte. Karl Robinson has spent much of his career in the top part of this division so he knows what it takes to get out of the league. If Oxford carry the form of the second half of the campaign last term with them they could threaten promotion at 8/1.
Relegation
If you listened to Wycombe Wanderers’ boss Gareth Ainsworth last season even when they were flirting with the play-offs he was babbling on about avoiding relegation and that looks to be the sum of their ambitions but I fear for them this term. They finished last season in rotten form with a sense that their awful style has been found out somewhat.
They look very light up front with an aging forward line now relying heavily on QPR loanee Paul Smyth. Jason McCarthy leaving looks a big blow and if they don’t start as well as last season they will be gobbled up even assuming two of the spots go to Bury and Bolton who begin 12pts behind everyone else, if they even begin the season at all.
Tips
Back Portsmouth to win Sky Bet League One for a 2/10 stake at 7.00 with Bet365
Back Burton Albion to win Sky Bet League One (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 21.00 with Betway (1/4 1-3)
Back them here:
Back J.Norwood Top Goalscorer (e/w) for a 2.5/10 stake at 10.00 with Betfair (1/4 1-4)
Back him here:
Back J.Clarke-Harris Top Goalscorer (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Coral (1/4 1-4)
Back him here:
Back Oxford to be promoted for a 1.5/10 stake at 9.00 with BetVictor
Back them here:
Back Wycombe Wanderers to be relegated for a 2.5/10 stake at 5.00 with Betfred
Back them here:
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