We reach the halfway mark in the latest Rolex Series event of the season, the BMW PGA Championship, on Friday, as the flagship event on the European Tour plays out the second round on the West Course at Wentworth.
It was a glorious day to get the tournament underway on Thursday and the scoring reflected that. The conditions are set to be the same on Friday ahead of tropical weather over the weekend so we’re in for a great day of golf.
Round 1 Recap
Many players shot under par on Thursday but nobody went lower than Matt Wallace. Our pre-tournament pick carded a seven under 65 which was bogey free and he has set himself, and us, up for another big week. There are some huge names in pursuit of him though. Henrik Stenson and Jon Rahm sit one behind Wallace on six under with Justin Rose another shot further back on five under. A hefty group sits on four under and they include our pre-tournament picks Joost Luiten and Andrea Pavan. The well-fancied Paul Casey and recent European Masters winner Sebastian Soderberg are also in this group. You have to go right down the list to see Rory McIlroy. His finish was a train wreck and he sits four over and battling to see some weekend action.
It was a day of what could have beens for us on Thursday betting wise. We look to have the outright market nicely covered but our first round leader punt on Scott Jamieson shared the final place with half the field and all three of our three ball bets were either winning or level on the back nine and all managed to lose by a shot, the most annoying of which being Matt Fitzpatrick who walloped two balls out of bounds on the par 5 penultimate hole to go from two ahead to one behind and that was that.
Friday Betting
At the time of writing I’ve not seen a market for the second round leader. I’m not convinced I would be betting on it anyway as I’ve got three outright runners who I hope can enhance their positions on Friday but in truth you’ve got to respect the trio of Paul Casey, Jon Rahm and Justin Rose who all have morning tee times for their second round and who should all have the better of the conditions so there is a good chance one of them will lead the way at stumps.
I hope that isn’t the case. I hope all three labour and Wallace kicks clear but there is every chance the quality of those three, and indeed players like George Coetzee and Danny Willett, will go well and Wallace will be behind them all when he tees off. If a market goes up I might look at Willett at a price but it isn’t available right now. I’ll head to the three balls for bets.
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Friday 3 Balls
As ever in these European Tour events the field go out in threes in the same groups that they played in on Thursday. Those who were out in the morning will be out later on Friday and vice versa. That means the attention in the morning will centre on that Justin Rose, Patrick Reed and Jon Rahm while the afternoon stuff will be all about Rory McIlroy and his quest to make the cut but you’ve got to think he’s going to need to shoot somewhere in the region of six under to be here for the weekend. He’s out alongside the defending champion Francesco Molinari and Open winner Shane Lowry. I’ve got bets in a couple of the groups.
SSP Chawrasia/Richard McEvoy/Romain Wattel
Match tees off at 11.10 BST
The first group which catches my eye on Friday sees the Indian star SSP Chawrasia out alongside last year’s Porsche European Open winner Richard McEvoy and the French player Romain Wattel who are out towards the middle of the pack.
McEvoy arrived here without a top 30 all season and with five missed cuts in his last six and he isn’t going to stop any of those trends here after a three over par 75 on Thursday in a round in which he only hit 10 of the 18 greens in the right number and couldn’t hole a putt for love nor money. Chawrasia fared a little better in shooting even par but his long game was all over the place and his short game bailed him out. Wattel caught my eye the most though. Nobody had fewer putts per GIR than him in the round but the problem for him was he only hit nine of the greens. His driving was decent enough though so if he can fine tune his iron play, and to be honest I’d expect that part of his game to come good, he’s the one who should be winning this group for the second day in succession.
Rory McIlroy/Francesco Molinari/Shane Lowry
Match tees off at 12.45 BST
The big afternoon group of Rory McIlroy, Shane Lowry and Francesco Molinari has thrown up some betting potential in my eyes as the huge crowd which is expected to descend on the Surrey track look to watch three of the finest stars of the game tackling the West Course.
I worried for Mcilroy a little when I saw the forecast. He doesn’t like firm and fast courses but I wondered if the softer morning conditions would help him on Thursday. To an extent they did as he was -1 at halfway but as the course firmed up and the temperatures rose his golf went completely so I fear for him again here. I’m not convinced Lowry is back down to earth after his Open victory yet either so I’m happy to take both of them on with both of them miles down on the putting stats and their long games not in great shape.
Molinari has three and seven shots in hand of his playing partners after Thursday and we know he loves it here, and so he should. The quality of field has probably helped him as defending champion as others have got the spotlight. Molinari was in the top 10 in fairways hit on Thursday and one of the best putters on show. His iron play was ropey but you rarely get two bad days with the irons from the classy Italian. Assuming he has sorted that out expect the defending champion to push on again and win this group for the second day in a row.
Tips
Back R.Wattel to beat SSP.Chawrasia & R.McEvoy for a 4/10 stake at 1.95 with LeoVegas
Back him here:
Back F.Molinari to beat R.McIlroy & S.Lowry for a 3/10 stake at 3.25 with Sky Bet
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