The third tournament of the PGA Tour season is the Safeway Open and it is the first time in the new campaign that some of the heavy hitters come out to play and lay their cards down on the campaign ahead of them.
Kevin Tway had the biggest week of his career so far when he outlasted the field to win a play-off here last year and he’ll be looking to make a successful defence of the title. The change in position in the calendar means he is up against a tougher field this time though.
Recent Winners
2018 – Kevin Tway
2017 – Brendan Steele
2016 – Brendan Steele
2015 – Emiliano Grillo
2014 – Sangmoon Bae
2013 – Jimmy Walker
2012 – Jonas Blixt
2011 – Bryce Molder
2010 – Rocco Mediate
2009 – Troy Matteson
The Course
As always we are at the North Course at the Silverado Spa and Resort this ear. The course is a par 72 which only measures 7,166 yards and in the hot, humid temperatures that are forecast for this tournament the ball is likely to fly further both through the air and on the firm ground which makes accuracy more important than it might have been in the past.
The key statistic for me this week is putting. If you look at the previous winners of this tournament they have all been good putters and players who give themselves a number of chances with precise stroke play into the greens. Chipping around these surfaces is not easy so GIR should be a big thing too. These aren’t the easiest greens so it is a real test of all the clubs in the bag but especially the shorter ones.
The Field
There is a really good field for the first time this week, a nice mix of those at the top of the world game and those looking to make their way up to that level too. Justin Thomas is probably the headline name teeing it up this week but Patrick Cantlay, Adam Scott and Hideki Matsuyama will all be eyeing up the title on their seasonal bow.
Sungjae Im continues to put himself in a position to win and he is in the field this week as are regular winners Bryson DeChambeau and Brandt Snedeker. Jim Furyk is another household name teeing it up while the exciting Colin Morikawa is also in the field. Francesco Molinari, Marc Leishman, Emiliano Grillo and Abraham Ancer add a nice overseas flavour to things while Phil Mickelson begins his campaign here.
Market Leaders
Justin Thomas heads the betting this week at 7/1 but just how prepared for the challenge he will be after shocking everyone on social media with news of his cancer scare recently is open to debate. Make no mistake about it he is more than good enough to win but I’d like my player to be better prepared than Thomas might be if I was to take someone at 7/1. He wouldn’t be a certain winner in this company anyway so I’ll pass him over.
Patrick Cantlay tees it up for the first time since blowing a good chance at the FedEx Cup at the end of last season. He is 11/1 to walk off with the title which would seem fair to me. My problem with him would be a bit of rust if not in his game then to those in the field who have had a competitive rep or two to their name this season. I respect Cantlay in his home state but there’s little value for me.
Hideki Matsuyama hasn’t won at this level for a while which makes his 14/1 price look a little on the stingy side. This is a better field than that so I couldn’t be taking him even if there were signs of his game coming back a little as last season went on. Matsuyama could do with a decent run of form ahead of the Presidents Cup and I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins again soon given that he’s too good not to but the price doesn’t interest me here.
Adam Scott starts out his season as a 16/1 chance to win at the first time of asking in this campaign. That is probably a little on the tight side given his relatively low percentage of wins in recent times as well. In saying that, there is no purer striker of the golf ball in the world but you have to putt well to contend and win around here and that is the part of Scott’s game which is often found wanting. It is 20/1 bar this quartet.
Main Bets
When bombing is not the order of the day and Chez Reavie is the field my money is usually drawn to him and I’m not changing that strategy here I have to admit. Nobody hit more fairways as a percentage on the PGA Tour than him last season and the longer the campaign went on the better his iron play and short game got, culminating in a wonderful Tour Championship where he produced a great finish despite starting way down the field. The opportunities for Reavie to contend and win are reducing by the season on the PGA Tour but this is one of them and I expect him to take advantage accordingly.
The wind is often a key factor round Silverado so that makes me think that Dylan Frittelli could be a big price at 55/1. The John Deere Classic winner from last season ticked a lot of boxes on his seasonal bow last week and I expect big things from the South African this season. He has the length to compete on those bomber tracks but he has the iron game and short game to go well on those where length isn’t everything. Coming from South Africa he is good in the wind as he has proven on the European Tour, he led the field in strokes gained on approach last week and is T12 in putting average. He should go very well here.
Outsiders
I can’t say I’ve ever been a fan of Harris English but there is no doubt that he looks to be hitting the ball about as well as he has ever done so if he can get a nice roll on with the short stick he should go incredibly well here it has to be said. He is T15 in strokes gained on approach this season and T24 on strokes gained putting. That has led to successive top 10 finishes to open up his campaign and a third one, and a high one at that, should come readily if he keeps hitting the ball like he has been.
Bronson Burgoon is another who has begun the season well. He was just inside the top 20 at the Greenbrier and in a tie for sixth at the Sanderson Farms last week where his long game was in outstanding order. He is seventh in strokes gained approach this season and ninth in putting average which are two key statistics this week. I like form players this early in the campaign and Burgoon is one of them. I’ll pay to see how well he goes here.
Lanto Griffin has been one of the last players off my shortlist for the opening two weeks of the campaign and he’s had me sweating a little I have to admit. He has started the campaign 13-T11 and sits third in the strokes gained putting statistics. Admittedly he has been a little more wayward off the tee than I would like but there is no massive pressure in terms of length off the tee this week so I’m hoping that will help his cause. If he does improve his long game he’s putting well enough to contend here.
Tips
Back C.Reavie to win Safeway Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back D.Frittelli to win Safeway Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 56.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back H.English to win Safeway Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back B.Burgoon to win Safeway Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back L.Griffin to win Safeway Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 111.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-6)
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