Saturday has come around again and it is a huge one on the racing calendar with the final Classic of the season in England as well as a top card over in Ireland at Leopardstown. We have picked out a punt for the big race at Doncaster as well as two on that wonderful Irish card to get stuck into as we aim to build on a stellar day last weekend.
Special Offer
Open up an 888sport account and bet £10 on the first race of ANY 7 race card and get a £5 free bet on EVERY OTHER RACE on the card!! That’s £30 in free bets!! Click the image below to bet. New accounts only. Use code RACE888. 18+ T&Cs apply. Gamble Aware.
3.35 Doncaster: St Leger
Preview
The 5th and final Classic of the season is upon us with the 1 mile 6 furlong St Leger being run at Doncaster. A small field of 8 go to post.
Gosden and Dettori have the favourite with the progressive Logician. It would be no surprise to him bolt up having won all 4 career starts, rising through the ranks culminating in a Group 2 win in the Great Voltigeur at York. He steps up in trip and needs to prove he’ll stay. With a few front runners in, this is surely to be a true test of stamina.
His main rival is Sir Dragonet, one of three for Aiden O’Brien. He bolted up in the Chester Vase which propelled him to favouritism for the Derby where he was less than 1 length back in 5th behind stablemate Anthony Van Dyck. Since then, he was only 4th in the Group 3 Royal Whip when odds on so has something to prove. That said, this extra distance could help.
Betting
It does look to be a battle between the front 2 on paper but I want a longer priced each way selection on my side in case they falter. Of the others, Sir Ron Priestley is basically a very good handicapper who won a sub standard Group 3 last time, however he keeps progressing and pulling out more. Dashing Willoughby won a Group 2 at Royal Ascot but may need softer ground, with Technician another also likely to be better if the rain came. Nayef Road and Western Australia look outclassed.
This leaves Il Paradiso, the 2nd of the O’Brien trio. He’s progressed this year, winning a maiden on his first start this term before being pitched into Group 1 company in the Irish Derby. The first time cheekpieces didn’t work and he was outpaced early in the straight, finishing down the field. He was then stepped up to 2 miles, winning a handicap by some 12 lengths on faster ground like he’ll encounter today. Again on fast ground, he then went for the Group 2 Lonsdale Cup over the same 2 mile trip where he only lost out late on to the brilliant Stradavarius, going down by just over a length. That’s excellent form and, arguably, as good as any in this field. The 2 furlongs shorter trip should be fine, especially as I’m expecting Western Australia to make this a stamina sapping contest. 9/1 looks a good each way price.
Tips
Back Il Paradiso (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 10.00 William Hill BOG (⅕ odds 1-3)
Back it here:
4.15 Leopardstown: Irish Champion Stakes
Preview
Over in Ireland less than an hour later, we have another Group 1. This is the Irish Champion Stakes run over 10 furlongs with 8 runners again lining up.
This time, Aiden O’Brien has exactly half the field including the favourite Magical who has finished runner up on her last 3 starts behind the top class Crystal Ocean and Enable (twice). This is certainly easier but I’m not convinced by her at less than 2/1.
Elarqam, 3rd in the Juddmonte, and Headman, a winner of a pair of Group 2s in France, are next in the betting and hold claims but they both look short in the market. Madhmoon could be the one of the market leaders as he now tackles 10 furlongs for the first time but the worry is whether his early season progression has halted.
The winner of the Derby, Anthony Van Dyck, is in the field at around 12/1 and his chances shouldn’t be dismissed but I’m preferring a pair at even bigger odds.
Betting
Deirdre is a high class Japanese mare who won at Glorious Goodwood in the Group 1 Nassau Stakes last time out, under today’s jockey. That may have been a below par Group 1 but so is this and she couldn’t have been any more impressive. Only 3 (Magical and Anthony Van Dyck being the others) have won a Group 1 this year so 14/1 looks a massive price for this 10 furlong specialist.
The 2nd bet is the 3rd string of O’Brien, Magic Wand. She won the Group 2 Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot last year but hasn’t won since. However she’s been placed in 6 Group 1s in that time which is remarkable. That is from 9 runs in the very top company with her 3 runs finishing out of places being over distances longer than 10 furlongs. She certainly seems better at this trip. She’s sure to run her race and her odds of 28/1 looks insulting.
Tips
Back Deirdre (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 15.00 Coral BOG (⅕ odds 1-3)
Back it here:
PLACED – Back Magic Wand (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 29.00 Bet365 BOG (⅕ odds 1-3)
6.00 Leopardstown: ‘Sovereign Path’ Handicap
Preview
Away from the Group 1s, there’s a Premier handicap over 7 furlongs which a field of 17.
The front 2 in the market were 1st and 2nd in Irish Cambridgeshire. The winner, Jassaar, has been raised 7lb and the runner up, Current Option, just 1lb but he does lose his 5lb claiming jockey. The question is whether a 1lb swing is enough although the latter named may be better suited of the two stepping down in trip by a furlong.
4th in that race was Ice Cold Alex and he ranks a bigger danger. What is slightly offputting is his wide draw and this hold up performer will need luck in running.
Betting
The one that could come out on top is Silverkode who has been runner up in this race for the last 2 years and looks to have been laid out for this in a bid to make it 3rd time lucky. Now a 5 year old, he’s run in 13 career handicaps; his form over this trip reads 2 wins and 5 places from 9 starts as opposed to 4 starts and never in the mix over other distances. In this race, he’s been 2nd off marks of 99 and 91 but is now off a career low mark of just 83. In fact, he won his first 2 career handicaps off 84 and 88; since then, all his runs(bar his last 2) have been over marks between 91 and 103 where he has 5 times being in the mix from 7 races over this trip. His last 2 starts have been over 6 furlongs in a bid to get his mark down; mission accomplished as, only 3 starts ago, he was racing off a mark in the 90s. Handicapped to win, he must surely go very close here.
Tips
Back Silverkode (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 8.00 888sport BOG (¼ odds 1-4)
Back it here:
Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2019
