After almost a month since it last held an event, the European Tour returns this week, albeit in the continent of Africa as the latest staging of the Trophee Hassan II takes place out in Morocco, one of the more historic events on the Tour.
Alexander Levy beat the course last year to waltz off with the title and he is here to attempt to defend the title. This isn’t an overly strong field against him but it is mighty competitive on a very tough track.
Recent Winners
2018 – Alex Levy
2017 – Edoardo Molinari
2016 – Jeunghun Wang
2015 – Richie Ramsay
2014 – Alejandro Canizares
2013 – Marcel Siem
2012 – Michael Hoey
2011 – David Horsey
2010 – Rhys Davies
The Course
We remain at the Royal Golf Dar Es Salam course this week. This venue hosts the tournament for the fourth time in succession and given that the winning score is yet to break into double figures we can assume that we are in for a tough week for those who are teeing it up here.
One of the reasons for that is the treelined nature of the golf course, but as well as the trees the rough here is quite penal so you have to play the course from the fairway. The greens are full of undulations and so are hard to hold which brings scrambling into play. If that wasn’t enough it is an absolute monster as a par 72 which measures way in excess of 7,600 yards. Patience, accuracy and a good touch around the greens is the way to success here.
The Field
Without any disrespect intended, it is fair to say that it is the second string of the European Tour teeing it up this week. That is no surprise with a pairs event out in America a couple of weeks or so before the second major of the season. Alex Levy might actually be the biggest name in the tournament.
There are five men in the top 100 in the world rankings teeing it up this week. They are Tom Lewis, Joost Luiten, Adrian Otaegui, Alexander Bjork and Jorge Campillo. Twice winner on the European Tour this season in Kurt Kitayama is also here while the likes of Andrea Pavan, Mike Lorenzo-Vera, Chris Wood and Andy Sullivan all here.
Market Leaders
Joost Luiten is probably the standout player in the field. He generally contends well in these second string events and has a half decent record around this track. If this has been after a run of golf then with his form and everything I would probably be all over his 16/1 quotes but there is an element of guesswork on the form front given that much of this field haven’t teed it up for a month or so. I like the Dutchman and would not be surprised if he wins but he’s too short for me.
Jorge Campillo, Jordan Smith and Nacho Elvira are joint second favourites at 25/1. The Spanish pair are both in excellent form at the minute and hold obvious claims, although as I’ve recently stated Campillo needs to get over the line now before I trust him. Jordan Smith’s driving should have him as a major player here but these greens are tough and that could count against him as he hasn’t putted too well in yonks.
A whole host of players come next in the betting at 28/1. There are five of them in total. They are Andy Sullivan, Julian Suri, Fabrizio Zanotti, Erik Van Rooyen and the defending champion Alexander Levy. I would give Zanotti and Levy the best chances of the quintet and I’m very tempted by the Paraguayan but I sense slightly better value lies elsewhere. It is 30/1 bar those named.
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Main Bets
I’ll go with a couple of main bets this week. Christiaan Bezuidenhout went into the final round here last year in second place and while it went tits up pretty quickly on the final day there was enough to like about his first three rounds to suggest he has every chance here. The South African has top 10s in three of his last four outings and having shown that he can tame this beast of a course there is a lot to like about him. The occasion might have been too much for him last year but he’s been in the mix enough since then to fare better the next time he’s in contention. At 35/1 he’s a leading pick here.
Alexander Bjork is the other main bet this week. He was third here last year and will be getting ready to defend his title in China next week so he should be right up for a good few weeks on the course. Bjork only lost out by a couple of shots last year and that was due to opening up with a first round 74. Since then he has won in China and chased home Eddie Pepperell as close as anyone did at Walton Heath towards the back end of last year. Bjork ranks as one of the leading scramblers on the tour and so if he can keep it in play off the tee he should be right there come the end of the week.
Outsiders
I’ve been on Aaron Rai almost every week where the Tour has been on tight tracks this season and I’m not going to shirk that strategy here. It was good to me in Hong Kong and while the form of the Englishman has been patchy at best since then, there have only been one or two courses that have suited him. This one certainly does. He is a tee to green machine so if he can keep the mistakes off the card then this is the sort of tournament where the scoring is in range for him to go very close. He’s a decent price this week and worth a bet.
Oliver Wilson had a wonderful week in Qatar recently and he opened up the campaign with a couple of top five finishes in South Africa towards the end of 2018 too. There aren’t many players in this field with three top five results this term and of those that do have it on their CV, not many of them are as big as 125/1. Wilson led the scrambling in Qatar that week which could be a big thing here. If he can just be half decent off the tee then he could have a big weekend here.
Wade Ormsby stats up well this week. He is straight off the tee and he hits a lot of greens in regulation and he isn’t terrible around the greens either. The Australian won in Hong Kong on a tight track last year and he was second in the Vic Open this season. Although they were on a different course to this one he also has two top 10s in this tournament in the past. Generally conditions are the same all over a country and although the course is different this one doesn’t go against his strengths so he is another who is a big price this week.
Tips
Back C.Bezuidenhout to win Trophee Hassan II (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 36.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
Back A.Rai to win Trophee Hassan II (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back A.Bjork to win Trophee Hassan II (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back W.Ormsby to win Trophee Hassan II (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back O.Wilson to win Trophee Hassan II (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
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