1 minute past midnight, Sunday 6th September, sees the biggest horse race in the world, the Kentucky Derby take place. 4 months late this year due to COVID-19 but nonetheless, it’s still eagerly anticipated across the world. This is the 146th running of the ‘run of the roses’, many saying this is the greatest 2 minutes in sport.
This year, however, feels different. The quality is nowhere near what it normally is & we see a 16 strong field where we have an odds on favourite and the front 3 in the market (the only 3 under 12/1 in the betting) are drawn in the widest 3 stalls. Normally this would suggest an upset given the tight turns and the importance of track position but given those inside aren’t of the highest quality, it wouldn’t surprise if those 3 filled the places.
Favourite
The odds on jolly is Tiz The Law. This horse has won 6 of his 7 starts, including his last 4 all this year, and his form is hard to knock. Trained by Barclay Tagg, he’s continued to improve winning the Florida Derby, the Belmont & the Travers on his last 3 starts. His credentials are hard to knock but odds on in a Grade 1 isn’t something we’re interested in & given hotpot Gamine was turned over in the Kentucky Oaks, we’ll look elsewhere.
Contenders
Honor AP is his nearest market rival but the one concern is that he won’t have enough pace early to tack across towards the rail. If he can get a good early position, everything is in place for a massive run but I suspect we’ll know our fate early with this one & he’s a no bet at around 5/1. Thousand Words beat Honor AP last time & is triple the price but he’s not certain to follow that up & the runner up that day showed distinct signs that it was just a run to put him spot on for this.
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Betting
Interestingly, the most likely pace setter is drawn on the wide outside and that horse is Authentic, the current 3rd favourite. He also forms our first bet in the race. He’s won 4 of his 5 career starts, his only defeat coming to Honor AP. Saying that, he’s also beat Honor AP by a similar distance he was beaten by so there’s not much to separate the pair. His running style is simple; break fast, grab the lead, kick off the home turn & repel the challengers. Last time in the Grade 1 Haskell, he did just that & kicked 5 lengths clear in the straight but some experts suggested his tank emptied with Ny Traffic closing all the way to the line, failing by just a nose. It may be the case that this trip will stretch him but there’s also a suggestion that this track is favouring front runners & I have a view that last time he just got bored out in front. Like the 2 in front of him in the betting, he’s one of only 3 to have won at the highest level this term & he represents the each way value.
At a bigger price, I cannot leave Max Player out of the equation. He’s drawn in 2 so should have no problems getting a position early, the main worry is that he gets too far back. He brings decent form to the table after winning a Grade 3 on reappearance & then twice finishing 3rd behind Tiz The Law at the very highest level, in both the Travers & the Belmont. Is he good enough to beat the favourite? Well, that’s arguable but he did have some excuses in both races & I’d expect him to finish a lot closer this time. Running in the Belmont, he’d been off for almost 5 months & came from an impossible position, 7 wide off the home turn but running on well. In the Travers, there was no pace & for one that was held up, he never had any real chance. Today will surely be a different story & I’d expect him to outrun his 25/1 odds.
Tips
WON – Back Authentic (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 12.00 Coral (⅕ odds 1-3)
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Back Max Player (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 26.00 888sport (⅕ odds 1-3)
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