We reach the halfway mark in the first stage of the PDC Home Tour play-offs on Friday night as Group 4 is played out, with four men once again toeing their home oches looking for their spot in one of the semi-final groups.
We have already seen a mixture of favoured runners and outsiders make it through to the semi-finals so it will be interesting to see how a competitive looking group plays out across the evening on Friday.
The Format
The 32 group winners from the first round of groups have been redrawn into eight groups for the second stage of the event. Each winner moves into one of two semi-final groups with the top two from those two groups progressing to form the Championship group which will take place on June 5 where the overall winner will be crowned. Each match from here on in is the best of 11 legs rather than the best of 9 of the first round. Two points are awarded for a win. If players finish level on points then leg difference will decide the outcome. If that cannot separate players then the head to head will settle the group winner. Were three players to be tied on points and leg difference the player with the highest overall average goes through. The entire tournament is being streamed live on PDC.tv, the Sky Sports App and various bookmaker sites.
Thursday Recap
There has been a significant shift in the quality in these play-off groups and that was evident on Thursday night when Luke Humphries twice averaged over 100 but that still wasn’t enough for him to qualify. That is because Gary Anderson was in brilliant form, winning all three of his matches including a 110.12 average against the aforementioned Humphries who had to settle for second spot. Jamie Lewis finished third and Nick Kenny was the player to go winless on the night.
It was a profitable night betting wise for us but Humphries not being able to win the group detracted from the winnings. To be fair we can have no complaints there. He played well and did what we expected but ran into a monster performance from Anderson. Thankfully though his match with Nick Kenny, despite being one-sided with Humphries winning 6-1, contained six 180s which was enough to cover the 4.5 line we took the over on.
Play-Offs Group 4 Line Up
The big names keep on coming in these play-offs. Already we’ve seen Peter Wright, Gary Anderson and Glen Durrant so far and now Dave Chisnall, arguably the most assured performer in the first round of the competition, headlines the latest group. Chizzy needs no introduction to anyone. We thought this setup would suit Chisnall and it showed as he dropped just three legs in a domination of his group. It wasn’t the strongest group known to man but his first two averages were 102.76 and 98.88 and that is world class against anyone. He looks a genuine favourite here.
There is no reason to suggest Chisnall will have this all his own way however. Darren Webster is the second ranked player on show and he can be a very nuggety player when he wants to be. Like Chisnall, Webster won all three matches in his opening group, although that too wasn’t the strongest in terms of opposition. He’ll need to up his game from his performances that night, but we’ve seen most do that naturally on their second appearances. Webster can be dangerous if the others don’t put him away.
This group is absolutely loaded with men who won all three matches in their first group and one of the more impressive early performers in the first round was the Dutch youngster Geert Nentjes, a man who average a few clicks under 97 for the night and peppered the 60 relentlessly. I’ve come to expect that from Dutch youngsters and the difference between the good ones and the great ones are their finishing. Nentjes impressed in that regard in his first group and if the doubles click like that again here he could really lay down a challenge to Chisnall. There are plenty worse 10/1 shots out there than him.
The final man in the group is actually the only one of the four to have won a TV title in Damon Heta. His came in a World Series event and while there is an exhibition feel to them, you don’t beat the players he did if you can’t play the game, and he further showed that in his opening group as he too came through comfortably. Heta lost his final match that night but he was chasing legs by then rather than the win so we’ll let him have that. Nevertheless, missed doubles was a huge feature of his play and that meant he could only average 85.95 across the evening. That will need to be improved upon for sure. We also shouldn’t forget that he is playing in the middle of the night too.
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Outright Betting
I do think Dave Chisnall is the man to beat but there is enough quality in this group to suggest that he shouldn’t be odds on to win it. He may well come through but there is always that concern in the back of our minds that he can start missing one or two doubles and there are players in this section who won’t be too far behind in the scoring phase of the leg. It only takes a couple of badly timed misses and that could be that.
There is something in the back of my mind telling me the 10/1 on Geert Nentjes is too big here but I’m all too aware the only match he has the throw in is the one against Chisnall and that is a concern. I’m not sure Webster has been playing well enough to be a feature here and the time of the night and those missed doubles put me off taking Heta. I’m priced in on Nentjes here I think despite the way the throw has fallen. I make him closer to half the 10/1 price he is.
Match Betting
Looking down the odds for the matches and there isn’t really anything that stands out. There isn’t one of those matches where the ‘home’ player is an attractive or wrong price with the throw that we have taken advantage of throughout the competition so far, and although the distance is further this time, there isn’t an away player I’m keen on climbing into other than perhaps Geert Nentjes against Darren Webster, but were the Dutchman to lose that match our group bet is likely to be dead too.
That leads me back to the 180s where I’m happy to be involved here. Sadly the matches involving Dave Chisnall have inflated lines as always but the clash between Damon Heta and Geert Nentjes doesn’t. The line for that one is 4.5 and given how well both scored in their opening outings in this competition I think that can be covered. Both hit eight 180s in their first groups, just shy of three per match on average. Given the longer distance here I’m expecting them to maintain that average and that will see the over land accordingly.
Tips
Back G.Nentjes to win Play-Offs Group 4 for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 with William Hill
Back him here:
WON – Back D.Heta vs G.Nentjes – Over 4.5 180s for a 3/10 stake at 2.20 with Sky Bet
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