The last PGA Tour season may only have concluded on Monday but time waits for no man as the new campaign gets underway with the traditional curtain raiser of the Safeway Open in California on Thursday.
The new FedEx Cup campaign begins here and in a season with six majors it is likely to be an extremely hard fought one. Cameron Champ won this tournament last year but having made it through to Atlanta last week he is not here to defend his crown.
Recent Winners
2019 – Cameron Champ
2018 – Kevin Tway
2017 – Brendan Steele
2016 – Brendan Steele
2015 – Emiliano Grillo
2014 – Sangmoon Bae
2013 – Jimmy Walker
2012 – Jonas Blixt
2011 – Bryce Molder
2010 – Rocco Mediate
The Course
The Silverado Spa and Resort’s North Course graces the field again this year. The course is a par 72 which measures 7,166 yards which doesn’t sound long, and in the dry and humid air it isn’t long but they grow the rough here making these fairways harder to find. The greens here are pretty small too so accuracy is still important but if you look at the recent winners length is certainly no detriment given that not many will hit too many fairways.
Longer hitters who can control their ball are probably the ones to be going after. If you want the cherry on top in terms of players that we’re looking for then ones who score well on par 5s would be it but this is very much one for pure ball striking. Those who can get hot with the putter are never a bad thing so it might be worth checking the all-around statistic to see who is doing everything well.
The Field
With the 30 men who made the Tour Championship last week only ending their season in Atlanta on Monday it was never realistic that any of them would be teeing it up here so the field isn’t as strong as it might have been, especially when there is the second major of the season taking place in New York next week. There are still a couple of star players headlining the field here though in Phil Mickelson and Jordan Spieth.
The Open champion Shane Lowry makes his debut here while other leading lights include former winners Brendan Steele, Kevin Tway, Emiliano Grillo and Sangmoon Bae. Players chasing a winning start to their season include Si Woo Kim, Harold Varner III, Sergio Garcia, Joel Dahmen and Chez Reavie while players such as Cameron Davis, Doc Redman and Erik van Rooyen are looking for their first win at this level.
Market Leaders
We have joint favourites on the best odds available this week. They are Si Woo Kim and Phil Mickelson. Mickelson is quietly fancied because he took a Champions Tour event apart a couple of weeks ago but there is a world of difference between that and this, and other than a bit of confidence I don’t really see what he gained from that. Kim had every chance at the Wyndham but a terrible final round cost him and me and I’ve not forgiven him. 20/1 highlights how competitive this week is but these two aren’t for me.
Brendan Steele is the third favourite to win the title for a third time. At 22/1 he is sure to be popular and it is only the tight nature of that price that puts me off because he is a solid ball striker off the tee and the rest of his game isn’t at too bad a level either. Perhaps most importantly he loves it on the West Coast. Most of his better results come in this part of the world so he isn’t an easy one to write off. I just feel better value lies elsewhere.
Joel Dahmen comes next in the betting at 25/1 and I’ll expand on him a little lower down this preview but if you think back to lockdown he was taking courses in this part of the world apart and while he is still looking for a first PGA Tour title, you get the feeling it isn’t going to be too far away and the next few weeks open up a lot of opportunities for him, not least this week in a part of the world where he is from.
Harold Varner III has been in the mix in a couple of tournaments since the restart and he is 28/1 to win the tournament. I always think there is a bad nine holes in HV3 which is so often his undoing and on a golf course that can play pretty tough I’m not sure I’d want to be on him with that being the case. The flip side of that is he is long enough off the tee and the aggressive sort of player to make the most of things when it is going well. He just feels a little high up the market for me. It is 30/1 bar.
Main Bets
As hinted above, Joel Dahmen is my first main bet this week. He is something of a western specialist. His four top 10s last season all came on the west side of America and three of them were on tough courses at Riviera, Bay Hill and Harding Park so he is a good player of tough traditional golf courses in this part of the world and that is exactly what he has got as the exam sheet this week. Think back to lockdown and he was making a name for himself by shooting some ridiculous scores on courses in this area so if it all clicks into place this week he is entitled to go very close. It was only a month ago he was in the top 10 at the USPGA Championship. That form is right up there with anything in the field.
Shane Lowry has been playing better than his results have suggested in the last few weeks and a traditional golf course such as this one should be right up his street. He’ll have encountered plenty of these tests over in Europe where his solid driving but wizard like iron play can really bring his best to the fore. We know Lowry has one of the best short games in the world and assuming he has stayed sharp after a couple of weeks off I see no reason why he can’t prime himself for the US Open next week by going very close to winning here. This place should suit him nicely.
Outsiders
Charl Schwartzel looks overpriced to me this week. He has become an all or nothing merchant in recent times but when it goes well it usually goes very well. He is no stranger to tough traditional tracks and is a major champion when all is said and done. This isn’t the strongest field in the world and there have been flashes in his form in recent times that suggest he might be going in the right direction. He was sixth here on his debut in 2015 and has the patience in his game to be effective again here.
Robby Shelton has shown enough in the last couple of months to suggest he can go well here. He has a decent enough short game and his long game is good enough to mix it as well. He was third in the 3M Open a couple of months ago and finished T13 at TPC Boston with a final round 63. He carded a 71 and 72 at Olympia Fields a fortnight ago which were good rounds of golf so there is plenty to suggest he is hitting the ball nicely at the minute. Those play-off and post-lockdown events were loaded fields. This one isn’t so this might be the week his major breakthrough comes.
Wesley Bryan used to perform well on these sorts of layouts but then a prolonged injury layoff left him in the doldrums. He looks to be coming out of the other side of that now though and he could be worth chancing at a three figure price. He made the top 25 at the Travelers and the Rocket Mortgage and put in another creditable effort at the Wyndham Championship too. He has had a month off while the play-offs have gone on to work on his game more. It doesn’t need that much work though because in much better fields than this he sits just outside the top 10 in scrambling since lockdown and in the top 15 in total driving. That game should see him go close here.
Tips
Back J.Dahmen to win Safeway Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back S.Lowry to win Safeway Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 31.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back W.Bryan to win Safeway Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back C.Schwartzel to win Safeway Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
Back R.Shelton to win Safeway Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 91.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
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