The leading lights of the golfing world head to Mexico this week for the opening WGC event of the year – the WGC Mexico Championship, a tournament which might give us further clues towards the destination of the Green Jacket at Augusta in a couple of months.
Dustin Johnson picked up the title here last year, and he’ll hope a successful defence can lead to a breakthrough at The Masters, but there is a wealth of quality looking to pip him to the trophy this week.
Recent Winners
2019 – Dustin Johnson
2018 – Phil Mickelson
2017 – Dustin Johnson
The Course
It is back to the Club de Golf Chapultepec for the tournament once again this week. I don’t need to mention it, but I will anyway, we are huge altitude here with the course a massive 7,500 feet above sea level, meaning the ball will fly further, making the par 71, 7,340 yard track play a lot shorter than the bare numbers will suggest.
The course is very much treelined which narrows the fairways and the greens here, while full of undulations, as the entire course is, are on the smaller side so there is a real premium on ball striking, which makes it all the more incredible that Phil Mickelson won here a couple of years ago. Those who have good distance control and hit it pure off the tee are the ones to be with this week.
The Field
72 men have a tee time this week and they include the new number one in the world Rory McIlroy as well as the defending champion Dustin Johnson. The other man to have won here, Phil Mickelson, is not in the field this week, neither is Tiger Woods while the likes of Rickie Fowler and Brooks Koepka are both giving the tournament a miss as well.
European number one Jon Rahm is here, as is the man he replaced in that position Tommy Fleetwood. Justin Thomas lost a play-off to Phil Mickelson a couple of years ago and he’ll be out to go one better here while Xander Schauffele and Matt Kuchar will like their chances. Riviera winner Adam Scott, Hideki Matsuyama and Louis Oosthuizen lead the international charge, while Abraham Ancer will be looking to thrill the home crowds.
Market Leaders
Rory McIlroy made a mess of the Genesis Invitational from the front in the final round last week but he is the 6/1 favourite to win here despite that. I think last week highlighted a few concerns and while I always say you can never write McIlroy out of any tournament, I wouldn’t want to be parting with any of my hard earned on him at such a price so soon after last week. He’s an easy swerve really.
Dustin Johnson has won twice around here in the three years the tournament has been here but nobody will convince me he is playing as well at the minute as he was on either of those occasions and at 15/2 I’d want to know he is flushing it and holing plenty before I part with the cash. He was second in Saudi Arabia recently but even that didn’t convince me. I respect his record here but he isn’t for me either.
Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas are both 10/1 to win the tournament this week. I wonder if Rahm is suited to treelined courses. I’m sure he has some form on them because he’s that good but I would wager he would prefer a little more freedom off the tee. By his standards he has been poor here for the last two years. Thomas has never been out of the top 10 so he would appeal more but two missed cuts in his last three outings is a bit of a negative at this price.
Webb Simpson won in Phoenix on his latest start and that very much brings him into play here. He has never finished in the top 35 around this track though and that has to be registered as a concern. I guess you either like the altitude or you don’t, and it doesn’t seem to sit well with Simpson. He may well go in again soon and I hope he is still 18/1 when he does, but as well as he is playing that poor course form turns me away from him. It is 20/1 bar those named.
Main Bets
I’m actually against many of the market leaders this week with Matt Kuchar my main pick. He probably won’t be the most popular after his stingy escapade when he won in Mexico in the Mayakoba event 18 months or so ago but there is no denying that he is playing well at the minute. He is excellent off the tee and few are better with an iron and putter in their hands. He finished tied second last week and we know he travels well not just from that win in Mexico but he has a decent record in Scotland and saw off a good field in Singapore last month. He looks a standout candidate to me.
Sergio Garcia has popped up on Twitter this week reinforcing his liking for this place and when you have finished 12-7-6 here it isn’t hard to see why he likes it. He lodged a couple of top 10s in the desert over on the European Tour earlier in the season so he is hitting the ball well and I expect a strong showing from one of the purest ball strikers we’ve seen in many a while, should his putter go well. He’s clearly in decent nick and another solid spin is expected here.
Outsiders
I can’t resist a cheeky poke at a couple of my favourite players. Abraham Ancer is on home soil this week and I will be kicking myself if he wins in front of his home crowd and my money isn’t down on him. He looks to have every chance to be fair. He is really good off the tee these days and he’ll know these conditions well. He has turned into an excellent putter, as he showed at The American Express earlier in the campaign and with no extra motivation than winning in front of his home fans required I expect a good tilt here.
Victor Perez placed for me in the last WGC event of last year and at 80/1 I can pay to see how he runs here. He is becoming a costly man to follow on a Sunday at the minute but I’m nothing if not loyal and he gets in my squad this week based on that finish in China. He is another who is excellent off the tee and if he can just hold himself together for four rounds there is a big finish in him. There are correlations between this place and the course used in the Turkish Airlines Open. Perez went down in a six-man playoff there last season so that is something else that justifies the pick.
Finally I’ll go with someone who has a decent record on treelined tracks. Danny Willett won around arguably the most famous of them all at Wentworth last season and his record in the Italian Open is strong too and that is rarely played on a track devoid of trees. Altitude isn’t an issue either because he has won in the Swiss Alps on the European Tour. Form this season amid some changes isn’t ideal but we know Willett turns up for the big events and at 125/1 I’ll pay to see how close he goes here. I expect a good show.
Tips
Back M.Kuchar to win WGC Mexico Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-6)
Back S.Garcia to win WGC Mexico Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-6)
Back them here:
Back A.Ancer to win WGC Mexico Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 56.00 with BetVictor (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back V.Perez to win WGC Mexico Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back D.Willett to win WGC Mexico Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
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