The latest Masters 1000 title will be won on Sunday evening when the Western & Southern Open comes to a close as Andrey Rublev takes on Alexander Zverev for the ATP Cincinnati title and the ultimate preparation for the US Open in New York later in the month.
These two men both beat higher ranked players in semi-finals they came back from a dismal position in and now both will battle it out for their first Cincinnati title in what promises to be a very entertaining final.
Andrey Rublev
The Russian number two finally got the better of his compatriot Daniil Medvedev in the semi-final and he should take an awful lot of confidence from that as he had a terrible record against the world number two up until then. Making it through to this final continues a 12 month purple patch of form for the Russian, who will be looking to secure a first Masters 1000 title by coming out on top in this final in what is his second title showdown at this level.
Rublev has done it the hard way this week, having gone to a deciding set in three of his four matches, coming from behind in the semi-final to get the better of Medvedev having previously been taken the distance by Marin Cilic and Benoit Paire. Even his straight sets wins over Gael Monfils was a pretty tight affair so Rublev certainly knows he has it in the locker to go deep in this final, which might be important.
Alexander Zverev
It might well be that the Olympic champion Alexander Zverev feels like he is playing with the house money in this final as he looked dead and buried in the semi-final against Stefanos Tsitsipas who basically baulked at the finish line having led the German by two breaks in the final set. Not only was Zverev down a double break in that deciding set but he was physically sick and low on energy and was basically waiting to be put out of his misery, which Tsitsipas wasn’t able to do.
To be fair to Zverev, for a set and a bit in that semi-final he was playing some unplayable tennis but it will be a concern that the tank emptied as quickly as it did when he was tested for the first time in the tournament. Zverev is experienced at winning titles at this level so he knows how to manage the occasion and deliver of his best tennis but the concern would be the doubts over whether he is fully fit in these pretty intense conditions.
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Head to head
This will be the fifth time these two have played in competitive matches. Andrey Rublev probably won’t need telling that the current head to head reads 4-0 to Alexander Zverev. If that record isn’t bad enough for Rublev, the two have played nine sets in their career and Zverev has won the lot and only once has he been taken beyond 6-4 so the history certainly points to the German in this final. This will be the first time they have met in a final though and their first meeting since the Australian Open last year so Rublev will hope his improvement in that time stands him in good stead here.
Betting
Andrey Rublev overturned one strong negative head to head against him in the semi-final and if he is going to walk off with his first Masters 1000 title then he is going to have to buck another trend in this final. I don’t think he’s without a chance though and would expect him to be a lot more competitive in this final than he has been against Alexander Zverev in the past at the very least, regardless of whether he gets over the line or not.
The games line for this final is a little lower than I expected at 22.5 games and I think that might be a touch on the low side. There is a good chance that this match will go three sets because while Zverev is the favourite, he might not be 100% and even if he is he has to recover quickly from a taxing 2hr40 semi-final. Rublev has improved a lot since the last time these two men met and I think this final has the potential to be dominated by serve as a result of that. If we get a tiebreak we might see this game line covered in two sets but a third definitely covers it so I like the over here.
Tips
Back Over 22.5 games for a 3/10 stake at 1.95 with BetVictor
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