The final of the BNP Paribas Open takes place on Sunday evening when the ATP Indian Wells event concludes with someone walking off with their first Masters 1000e title when Cameron Norrie meets Nikoloz Basilashvili for the title.
I think it is fair to say this is an unexpected matchup in the final but nobody can really argue that these two don’t deserve to be in the final because they have been the two best players on the week. One of them will crown the week with the biggest title of their career.
Cameron Norrie
Incredibly, Cameron Norrie will be walking out in his sixth final of 2021 when he steps out onto the court to compete in this match. He won’t need telling that he has only won one of the previous five finals and when he made the championship match in San Diego two Sundays ago he was beaten before the match began so he’ll be eager to ensure there is no repeat of that showing. There is pressure on Norrie here because not only is he playing for his first Masters 1000 title but he would be right in contention for a place in the season ending event in Turin too if he can win here.
Norrie has come through battles this week against Roberto Bautista Agut and Tommy Paul and then as he has found his best tennis he has cruised through the quarter final and semi-final, losing just the eight games in the four sets he has played in those two matches. He is hitting his spots on the serve and is relishing the conditions which allows him to hang in the points and use his incredibly physicality and aerobic strength to his advantage.
Nikoloz Basilashvili
I think it is fair to say that Nikoloz Basilashvili was sailing under the radar in the early stages of this tournament. Even beating the Olympic silver medallist Karen Khachanov didn’t really bring him to the forefront of minds as a potential finalist of this tournament let alone winner of it, however that all changed when he took care of Stefanos Tsitsipas in the quarter final and then when he managed the big moments well in the semi-final against Taylor Fritz he became a real danger for the title.
This will be the third final this year which the Georgian will have competed in. Unlike his opponent in this final, Basilashvili has a perfect record in title showdowns in 2021. He made the final in Doha and in Munich and he walked off with the title on both occasions. This will be the biggest trophy he will have won if he comes out on top but there is no substitute for knowing you can get over the line in the biggest matches.
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Head to Head
These two have only bet on one previous occasion but it was extremely relevant as it was this year in Rotterdam when Norrie took Basilashvili to the absolute cleaners, conceding just three games in a very one-sided victory, which actually included a bagel in the opening set. That was indoor though and this is outdoors but you’ve got to think the margin of victory in that contest will give Norrie an awful lot of belief and confidence heading into this final.
Betting
While I respect the record of Nikoloz Basilashvili in finals this year, I have to play the here and now and the conditions that we have in this match and that makes me think that Cameron Norrie will not only win this final but cover a 25 game handicap. When the two met in Rotterdam earlier in the year, the Brit won 60 63 so was nine games better than the Georgian and while I expect this match to be a bit closer than that, I don’t see it being close enough for this line not to be covered.
These conditions are so slow that for the majority of the match I expect Norrie to hang in points and play on the patience of Basilashvili, and I think we’ve seen enough of him in his career to know that isn’t the strength of the Georgian. The other thing these conditions give Norrie an advantage in is because he is extremely fit that the lengthy points are right up his street as they wear the bigger opponents down. Unless he gets nervous on a big day for him, I expect a comfortable Norrie win here.
Tips
Back C.Norrie (-2.5 games) to beat N.Basilashvili for a 3/10 stake at 2.00 with Boylesports
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